Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"The 2% target is not realistic today."
My guess is final range of 3-4.5%. That would allow Fed nice range of "dry powder" to decrease rates if necessary to offset future financial problems. What the Fed says and what it really thinks may be two sl…
Ha, @Crash! You beat me to it, even with my time zone advantage.
A few notes: Good back & forth on HY: Spreads are surprisingly narrow now (in the 400s bp): is the market getting ahead of the situation or just pricing in a cushy-soft landing? D…
It may be a good idea politically, but the time to get a team organized and rolling will probably introduce a significant delay in the process. The Georgia state case will be way, way ahead of the federal case and likely a better chance at achieving…
I read somewhere that a ballot measure passed by the voters earlier created the non-partisan redistricting commission that de-gerrymandered the state, and that had a lot to do with the two-house sweep. Got some smart voters there.
Nov. 11 edition here.
All three guests think the peak yield this year for the 10y Treasury is already in, and agree with the consensus of a 50 bp Fed rate rise in December. Some talk of scaling back expectations a bit for the presumed Fed's termina…
Saw a brief P. McCully interview a couple of weeks ago. His thinking at the time was that there's a good chance the bond-buying flood gates will open and knock down yields (didn't opine on which ones) as more dovish Fedspeak debuts in December.
Th…
That's a reasonable refinement from PK today. Annualized 3m wage growth as a measure of underlying inflation makes sense ... and it's telling the same story as the CPI since July.
I wouldn't think twice about crypto but for the fact that the participants are keeping coal-fired power plants running to feed their ridiculous energy-hog games. One in my state was in the first stage of shutdown, but the void boyz bought it and kee…
@Yogi, the page I linked also has a simple M-O-M chart for 2022, near the bottom of the page; yep, it's noisy from one month to the next. July was very slightly negative, and it's kind of arresting to see it displayed that way after the leaps earlie…
Good FRED chart from Yogi. Inflation turned in mid-summer; the year-over-year comparison doesn't pick up the magnitude of the change, given that it still includes very high months, e.g., when month-over-month jumps were a full percent or more, from …
Nov. 4 edition here. Participants agree on 5% Fed rate peak; no HY default spike in sight; looking for another bump up in HY spreads but disagreement on the level; IG debt is interesting at this level; soft landing still possible, but policy lag cre…
@dtconroe: +1. Just to be clear, I don't have a timeframe in mind; just making the point that while bond funds are still getting beaten up, and nobody knows what's going to happen when, there's no reason to completely dismiss them forever. Last post…
Sven: "Pimco bond funds have a considerable outflow, billions !"
Yes, and I was one of the sellers; got rid of my last shares of a Pimco bond fund on January 25. That move didn't mean I'd never buy into one again, under different circumstances. Lat…
The market conditions during GFC is quite different from today.
Hi @Sven. Of course; no two periods are exactly alike. But there's every reason to think there will likely be assets at fire sale prices that good managers can jump on. I agree in the…
I think for those who have some history investing in funds, I wouldn't write them off. For some years at the end of the GFC, good active management houses did very, very well, like up to 20% a year, a la Pimco Income. I'll be watching houses like Pi…
Yesterday, CME FedWatch wasn’t updated fully. Today, it is showing hikes of 50-50-25-25 (and moving around that) to the fed fund terminal rate of 5.25-5.50%. ....
This is a good reminder to the 'Treasury & CD' crew (me included) to keep planning…
in the usa, at least in some states, would a vote so close automatically trigger a recount? 1% limit? But this is more, though still very thin. Lula wins, and that's a relief.
It would take a while to suss out what the laws in say the majority of t…
Month over month is what tells us the current inflation rate. Year over year tells us a lot about past inflation, not that much about current.
M-o-M for July was 0.0, August 0.1, and Sept. 0.4. Annualize those, and you get what the recent to curre…
OT: See in the NPR article, talk about a guy born to his profession: "Paul Schwinghammer, a home builder and president of the Indiana Builders Association."
Yogi: "For 2 yrs, we have been basically homebound, avoiding routine social gatherings. We have attended only a handful of very special events. Our friends complain and some have stopped inviting us. Most recent special event was a funeral of a good…
Wishing YBB and everyone else who gets it a complete recovery. It's a good time to consider playing it safe; apparently BQ1.1 is no joke, and long-haul covid is a very real risk.
One epidemiologist I read (via email subscription) says the W.H.O. i…
I'll never forget Nygren buying WaMu hand over fist at the outset of the GFC while people I knew in Seattle said it was the butt of all jokes at the time. (Of course the jokesters were right, Nygren was wrong.)
It's a huge, expensive mess. My state's crappy asset creation for what's left of a massive coal generating campus (down to two operating units from four, still one of the dirtiest operations in the nation), which is also the plant operator, has file…
