Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Ted, you are my favorite forecaster.
And if the Fed does raise this year, all signs are it will be a quarter point, followed by a delay before any further move. If the market drops 10% in response to that, I'd be a buyer.
Don't bear markets usually start either when the economy peaks and begins to tip into recession, or when interest rates rise either sharply or extensively? A 10% correction or so can happen any time, but a full-fledged bear market? I don't see it. A…
David -- TDVFX has piqued my interest. Any idea as to what extent they are team managed, vs. Mr. Towles (elder or younger) being the key person?
In the SV space I've got HUSIX. I don't mind the past year's poor performance (that will happen to any …
Yes, I'd love to hear what David hears from them, but right now I'd be inclined to buy the microcap fund, if I can get in. I already own GPIOX, but If I'm not mistaken, new funds from great managers tend to do better than their old ones, since they'…
I just looked at RPHYX's chart on M*. It's performing exactly as advertised: a very gentle but nearly straight line up, delivering a bit more than 3% better than MMFs, which are delivering just about zero. The only time it ever had a negative quarte…
Well, if you're a fund manager who holds a lot of cash, or a long-short manager who's mostly short, then if the markets go up you risk underperforming the market and your benchmark. I think that's what guys like Ritholz who manage other people's mon…
Here's a study that indicates that when stocks are especially expensive, they tend to keep rising rapidly for a few years more... but then over 10 and 20 years periods the return is subpar.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2934926-are-stocks-most-exp…
I was skeptical about GMO, but I took a quick glance at their benchmark-free world allocation fund and the returns and volatility look quite good, actually.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/gbmfx/f?t=GBMFX
Maybe I should pay attention to this fore…
Greece isn't asking for more money, and it hasn't received more money for a while -- the additional "loans" have gone straight to its creditors, mostly in Germany. Greece is currently paying its creditors 1.5% of GDP a year. It's requesting that thi…
It's hard to predict the future, especially in markets, but I live in Brazil and write about the financial markets down here for a living, and FWIW, my favorite analyst down here expects the real (currency) to fall to 3.2 to the dollar by year's end…
@BenWP Thanks. I hold BRUSX too. Bridgeway had a couple of miserable years, but they've come back recently. In general I like the way Bridgeway runs things and intend to stick around.
@BenWP: HDSVX looks very interesting. New funds run by successful managers tend to do outperform their older brothers, I believe. Have you done any research on it?
I'm with you, Charles. I do just sometimes wish BB would seem a little more humble, that he might admit mistakes now and then and show that he'd learned from them. But hey, sometimes managers deserve their arrogance (cue Jeffrey Gundlach) and let's …
@Maurice, yes, that's exactly what I meant, if the hot money flows out, it doesn't impact the manager, but you (the investor) can buy them on the cheap.
With his CEFs, GIM and TEI, if hot money flows out, you can buy them at a discount.
I've been flirting with TEI for a while, but his Brazil overweight bothers me more than Ukraine. Brazil may be nearing a bottom now, but to have been so heavily in…
Thanks for posting this, Charles. What was your subjective sense, listening in? Did he restore your confidence?
And did anyone ask what happens if he gets his big macro call wrong -- that the economy and market are on the verge of a long upswing? I…
Clacy, thanks for the paper, I stand corrected.
My thought was that HFTs, by front-running, drive up prices for investors making big purchases, but there's a lot of controversy about that and it seems I was wrong.
davidrmoran: good points, but yes, one should always stay polite.
This tax would probably actually reduce costs for people like us, by reducing the presence of high-frequency trading, which generally prevents big investors (like the actively-manag…
Thanks, Charles, I hadn't known about the dashboard. I just took a quick glance, and unless I'm misunderstanding, they've pretty much all underperformed the S&P since they were founded. Admittedly, most aren't U.S. large cap equity funds, but st…
Has anyone gone back and tested the profiled funds here for performance, like M* does with its analyst picks and 5* funds? I thought about this after reading David's excellent commentary, much of which questions the logic of investing in actively-ma…
@davidrmoran: VPCCX did (and it beat DSENX too), but yes, it's a Vanguard fund. I own DSENX thanks to your bringing it up on these discussion boards and then my doing some research on it. Thanks again. Wish I'd bought more of it...
VPCCX (19.29) and BRAGX (14.99). They're my biggest and second biggest holdings, but three and four (FAIRX and FAAFX) more than compensated, alas. I'm with Charles waiting for the Great Fairholme Pumpkin. I also own a little DSENX in a Roth IRA, but…
I think Bridgeway is the best quant shop out there available to retail investors. The main manager, John Montgomery, treats investors very well. I'd look at BRAGX, their flagship, go anywhere fund too. BRAGX, like the other funds in that family, inc…
@Charles: Thanks for sharing your (relative) pain, I too am way behind the S&P this year after a few years outperforming. Fairholme hit me hard, and great performance from Primecap and decent performance from Bridgeway (my other two big position…
