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I think The Onion, as usual, nailed it years ago:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/even-ceo-cant-figure-out-how-radioshack-still-in-b,2190/
(The Onion's a satirical magazine, just in case you don't know it.)
It seems to me the big question is whether this is just about commodities -- a mix of oversupply, weak demand, and markets overshooting -- or whether this commodities downturn is a leading indicator that the world economy is tipping back into reces…
I found this graph, reposted from a Morgan Stanley report, interesting: http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/12/10/morning-must-read-sam-ro-crude-oil-cost-production/
If it's accurate, maybe the offshore drillers will come back once the rig oversupply en…
So M* has it 4% above its benchmark and 0.16% below its category YTD, and 1.66% below its category for the last 12 months: even the best funds have a stretch of underperformance now and then, this strikes me as not bad for a fund with an excellent l…
Half his portfolio is in basic materials & energy, i.e. commodities. Had he been half in health care he'd have looked a genius. A bit too soon to tell whether or not he's right--is this a dip, or a long-term downturn in commodities?--but it cert…
I bought some ESV @ 37.05. I think it's one of the more solid of the bunch and the dividend (a bit over 8%) looks sustainable, though yes, I know that's not a sure thing and I'm prepared to wait.
@heezsafe To be a bit cold-blooded about it, that link sure makes it look you'd be better off buying the shares than investing in one the funds, though one has to worry about governance on that end too.
@Bee,
I'm just playing devil's advocate here, I know you've done very well with your LT Tsy investments, that was a great call, and because of you I intend at some point to buy EDV to hedge my stock market investment, but here is a possible other sc…
@Scott and @PRESSmUP:
I agree with you both. FAIRX has become a very different fund. I'm sticking with him because I think he just might be smarter than everyone else, and focusing patiently on a few extraordinary situations is probably the only way…
@Bee
My two cents' worth:
1. Yes
2. It depends on whether growth and inflation in the US accelerate enough to compensate for QE and sluggish growth abroad.
In Ted's link, there was this link with a pretty good summary of the bear case on LT bonds: h…
I swapped it a year or so ago for DSENX and haven't looked back. Aside from the expense ratio, the managers are running more and more assets under this strategy in different funds, so I doubt they'll maintain their past outperformance. And a cheaper…
I'm guessing that after the recent loss in court, even though there's a lot of other leagal action ahead, he's moving to a slightly more conservative stance: there are scenarios where the preferred shares would have value and the common shares would…
I'm heavy in FAIRX and FAAFX. I'm planning to hold. I remember all those investors in Ken Heebner's funds, CGMFX, etc, who sold at the end of a long stretch of underperformance and bought at the end of a long stretch of overperformance.
Berkowitz s…
Thanks all your thoughts. Yes, I wasn't thinking of buying at an IPO, my idea was to wait for a correction, when besides NAVs dropping, many CEFs also see their discounts increase to greater than historic level, so if you're brave you can buy both t…
Ed's remarks on closed-end funds' structural superiority over mutual funds parallels some of my recent thinking; and with CEFs, if you're brave, you can buy them at a discount.
Aside from the ever popular PDI, anyone have a list of CEFs they might …
Well, they've had a number of years of deflation, so your average retiree has seen his purchasing power go up while the rest of the economy suffers. They're aiming for 2% inflation, hardly BleakHouse style, especially since Japan, like has, has Cost…
Bought BBL Monday @51.91. I'm not sure the bottom's in for commodities, but I think the dividend is safe (4.8% yield) and that it will be one of the long-term winners.
I'm eyeing ESV, KKR, and maybe adding to my position in GM.
It would have been nice if this article interviewed someone other than a bond fund manager talking up their product -- but in any case, thanks for posting, Ted.
Probably it means that Schwab will drop one of the other outside analysts (S&P, Argus, or CS) that it is currently paying for.
A while back, before I got my mother to leave Merrill Lynch, ML was giving her access to M*'s reports as one of their…
I'm with Scott. I enjoy his threads for exactly this: "the whole idea of the threads wasn't about actionable advice as much as it was some manner of "small talk", where people could just kind of throw out what they like."
I like the threads casual.…
Sorry about that. Short version: China is moving toward much slower growth, less investment, and more consumer spending, which means commodity prices (iron in particular) are going to fall further. Europe, led by Germany, is trying to export its way…
I've decided to swap from CIPSX into HUSIX. CIPSX is low beta and has held up relatively well (down 6.8% YTD); HUSIX I think will be a better fund long term, but is down more (-13.7% YTD), so I've been waiting for this chance.
It's a way for me to …
Re: Greece, everyone's been waiting for the ECB to start scooping up peripheral sovereign debt, and I think they've gotten tired of waiting.
But Draghi seems to get it, I think the ECB will act soon. If I were a hedge fund, I'd be buying Greek debt…
I'm curious to see when/if ARIVX buys. The manager stayed more than 50% cash through the 2011 correction, when small value went down over 20%. He's made clear he's looking for a major, 2008 style crash. If we get it, he'll look like a genius, as he …
It is beating its category YTD, according to M*, so you shouldn't be too hard on it. I remain skeptical of the category as a whole. It's hard but possible to pick undervalued stocks and wait for the market to catch up, if you're patient, I believe; …
If everyone thinks oil is going lower, maybe that means it's near the bottom already? You know, the last bull going bear or whatever.
I'm not making any predictions here but maybe someone who knows technical analysis can comment as to whether the …
" "Fairholme's 13.2% annualized return has outperformed 99% of peers over 10 years. " (FAIRX's performance over the past five years since is at the 98th percentile.) "
The question for us Fairholme investors is, were the last 5 years mean reversion…
I'm considering adding to FAAFX and HUSIX, but I don't have too much dry powder, so I'm waiting to see if the market falls a bit more first.
I'm eyeing some energy stocks and other commodity stocks, maybe ESV or BBL, since I think they can support …
