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@LewisBraham all good points. So Gundlach's bond portfolio has gotta add closer to 1.3%, and yes, if there's a return of the GFC, the fund will probably have counterparty problems. I think Gundlach's bond portfolio can add the 1.3%, but it's on a sh…
@LLJB +1. Which means that if Gundlach can invest those bonds well enough to generate a greater than 0.89% return, and if the equity side at least breaks even with the S&P, the fund ought to beat the S&P, before taxes, so long as its counter…
Hi David,
I love DSENX, but if I understand it right, its formula leads it to avoid certain parts of the market, which means it overweights others. Like any other fund, it could get that bet wrong, and Gundlach could mess up his bond bets too.
Yet …
@Mark, many thanks for starting this thread. I've been wondering about the pros and cons of building my own dividend growth portfolio vs. a low-cost ETF like SCHD or VIG. I'm sure short-term it's not too hard to get a higher yield than those, since …
Interesting link, thanks for posting. My takeaway from it is that the rally may survive the likely failure of Trump's legislative agenda, so long as his administration doesn't totally implode or blunder into a foreign policy disaster.
Thanks, @PRESSmUp, I skipped that article because of the title, but went back to it because of new. Lesson seems to be: if you're not sure if it's the 7th or 9th, best to assume it's the 9th...
I keep on waiting for this fund's monthly rotation policy to create a big tax bill, like some similar Pimco funds (e.g. PIXDX) but it never happens. I wonder how they avoid that.
@davidrmoran: "I am having trouble thinking of a scenario where their monthly churn re the four auto-chosen SP500 sectors could underperform SP500 in aggregate."
If the sectors with high CAPE just keep getting higher and outperform those with a low…
Fairholme issued a response, weirdly, it's not on their website yet, but here, on Valuewalk: http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/02/fairholme-fannie-mae-court-pr/
Yes. I was hoping they'd do this. Especially since it is by any standards a tiny fund, $160 mln in AUM. This one's a keeper. Thanks, David_Snowball, for writing this up a few years back.
According to the prospectus, it was backtested to hold up especially well in a downturn. For me, if it passes that test, it will be a buy and forget about it fund, at least until its success becomes watered down by imitators. The CAPE calculations a…
Yep, I too am in DSENX thanks to David Moran and am grateful to you for pointing it out; but I don't know if this is a buy and forget about it fund. Quant funds tend to work very well until suddenly they don't, especially ones like DSENX, which have…
PTIAX looks great, but I'd feel better about it if it, like some of the other great funds listed above, had a record that included the 2008-09 financial crisis...
Edmond's point about what tax cuts for corporations can do to corporate earnings is pretty undeniable. It's basic math.
It also seems hard to miss that the recent rhetoric coming out of Trump's team and Congress is far more about cutting upper inco…
@MikeM, PFIDX looks very interesting. Since Ivascyn just took the reins in May, the impressive recent performance matters more than the mediocre long-term performance.
VF: It's only about half equities now, and in the past that's been even lower, plus BB seems to be migrating toward natural resources now (and has long been heavy in retail via Sears) and certainly owns giant companies, so I don't think those compar…
I actually bought TDVFX about a year ago, entirely due to this board. It's a fund whose success actually makes sense to me, based on David's write up last year.
I'm beginning to think of taking some money off the table. I've been super aggressive (80% stocks) for years. On the one hand, I think this economic cycle has at least a year or two more to go. There's certainly no sign of recession that I see in an…
Thanks for the link, PRESSmUP. @golub1, why not just raise some cash on your own? I find it hard to believe that most of these cash-heavy guys are really brilliant enough to use that cash at just the right the time, again and again. If they were, th…
Thanks for everyone's thoughts on ARTKX, and yes, I'll hold on, it's been one of the best foreign funds out there since its founding (and I bought it near then), and I'm sitting on a lots of capital gains in a taxable account. But I am keeping a clo…
Am wondering if the time is coming to get out of artkx. Had a great run, but nothing lasts forever, and if the parent company is losing its culture, could be time to take profits
Wow, GIBIX sure has some impressive performance. Has anyone looked under the hood a bit? Just looking at M*, it's underweight treasuries and heavily overweight asset-backed.
M* on FAIRX: massive withdrawals + highly concentrated positions in small cap companies = a possible rout in those companies' shares (and FAIRX's NAV) if withdrawals continue.
I'm guessing this concern is a bit lower in FAAFX, where he owns most of…
