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Whenever I hear him speak or listen to an interview, I walk away thinking, What a smart guy, his fund's gotta turn up sooner or later. Then it bombs another year. Rinse and repeat... I'm still holding FAAFX (about 7% of my portfolio, though it would…
@MJG Informing someone who uses a coin flip as a metaphor for chance that it's not exactly 50/50, and linking to a physics professor's article on the subject, with an added comment that "you might profit from these insights" is pretty close to a dic…
All those sci-fi books I read when I was a kid imagined a world where robots do most of the work as a good thing (except for the books which then imagined the robots rebelling against us, but that's something else.) I do think it's possible to be ha…
@kevindow XSLV looks very interesting. I've been wanting an index-plus fund in the small cap space. Have you done any research on it, or can you point me to some literature?
Yet for years, as VF pointed out, it knocked the ball out of the park, was an M* analyst pick etc. For me, another piece of evidence that it is damned hard (not impossible, but damned hard) to pick a fund that's going to outperform.
For me the only nagging doubt about being fully in the market (which I am, aside from a rainy day fund) is the old line about past performance not guaranteeing future performance. Just because a trend has gone on for decades or even centuries doesn'…
HI Catch,
I found this piece by Larry Summers on just this topic quite interesting: http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/must-read-larry-summers-7/
The short version: In this era of low to negative interest rates, governments gotta start spending …
@MJG As usual, I find your wisdom very helpful. I've been a maximizer with my investment philosophy, and it hasn't served me well. I've plunged into active funds that seemed to have everything going for them. Some have outperformed; others have unde…
I did like MikeM, bought when it opened, sold it late 2013 for a decent gain because I found his emphasis on PM stocks and how the market was "rigged" unimpressive. I generally think that managers who claim that the market is rigged mean that they j…
For me, the big question is who is this Espinosa guy, and how much will Foster be involved? Foster's the man who has the long record of success. But I do like the idea that he's handing off the main responsibilities so he won't be overburdened runni…
@MJG Your comments are very useful, and of course we respect your wish for discretion about your specific investments, especially since you don't come here to boast, on the contrary, you're sure of your opinions but also quite humble. Thank you for…
I'm still holding. Then again, I'm still holding FAAFX so I have unusual tolerance for punishment. Fortunately not big positions but yeah, I ain't no genius.
Wow, thanks for this, MSF, I'd naively assumed that the 0.25% 12b fee was all that NTF funds paid on Schwab. But it seems like the transaction fee funds have the same ER whether on Schwab or directly at the company, so I guess the fund company is sw…
Thanks as always for the link, @Ted. Maybe the most interesting tidbit in this piece is that Gundlach thinks Trump will win the presidency. Talk about a contrarian bet!
@Old_Skeet @Junkster @DanHardy thanks for your thoughts. I don't have the time or courage to trade much, and I've got a long-term horizon, so I've been thinking of dipping my toes in an active fund like ARTFX...
Interesting link, Ted, thanks for it. I'm curious what some of the many saavy bond investors here think about current junk valuations, @junkster and @dex maybe?
@MJG Thanks as always for your thoughtful, detailed, and highly convincing comments. I noticed you didn't include any bonds in your model portfolios. Was that because this discussion is just about stocks, because your analysis is that bonds have no …
@AndyJ Since JG left, TGLMX has been managed by the same team that managed MWTRX, so they're really dealing with more or less the same a.u.m. all told.
Thanks @David_Snowball. Disaster was probably too strong a term; "surprisingly poor" sounds about right. So: a bit of bad luck, a couple of honest mistakes, and a big dose of waiting for the market to catch up with his estimates of value. Sounds pla…
The Roman Empire is strong and resilient. It will survive whatever the... outcome. We always have; we always will."
Anonymous Roman citizen, c. 220 AD
Rome was sacked in 410 AD, so that still gives us another 190 years, though probably you'd want …
@shostakovich. A fair point, sir. It indeed seems that actively-managed funds can successfully offer lower volatility in return for lower returns, and for retirees, that is probably a good option.
But since over a ten year period -- one that includ…
Hi David,
I just glanced at M*, and for the last ten years, GBMFX has returned 4.82% annually, beating its category by a highly respectable 1.03%. http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/GBMFX/quote.html
But that's the institutional share class, with …
Wow, what a fabulous record. Has anyone kicked the tires on the fund to explain its success? I always hesitate to buy funds based on a simple, well-known, and clearly logical investment thesis (the world needs more infrastructure) and a great recent…
