Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The theory also sets up paradoxes that cannot be explained if you assume the total market index composition at any time captures the total market gains of all sub sectors.
For example, imagine a hypothetical scenario in which all active managers co…
There are about 5000 stocks currently listed in US stock markets (though this keeps varying). Fund managers don't need to own only the stocks outside the index.
For the "mathematical guarantee" of the zero sum game assumption to hold, you cannot h…
Thanks @charles
Your comments highlight the problem with meaningfully interpreting results of a search like this.
Shouldn't there be a primer somewhere on the site that explains how to use the data for fund selection or portfolio allocation? Other…
@mrdarcey will provide his own rationale.
The problem I have with these "zero sum game" arguments is that they assume the index literally contains every stock in the category which is not true of any index or in the case of Sharpe, the market is d…
These media indexologists remind me of the unbearable baseball fans that pick some mid season statistic (say lowest average ERA for the team in their league for the season) to rah-rah about until their pitchers get beaten up over the next month or t…
I suppose 5 years from the last crash is long enough period to start coming out with these "Don't worry, be happy" articles on the rarity of crashes. :-)
Relevant to the recent comments on Bogle vs Templeton regarding taking words from these guys literally and as immutable. Problem with cults.
I find the flawed calculation and ridiculous inference of Sperling's ROI on Clippers vs return on an index …
Some good recent reads:
The Prague Cemetary by Umberto Eco - a historically placed fictional account of a character who is willing to spin any false narrative about anybody as long as there is money to be made, a thinly veiled dig at some of the cu…
M* databases have been corrupted all day for some funds. For example, they have been showing Fidelity utility funds FIUIX and FSUTX funds with an all bond portfolio off and on today. Not the first time.
One wonders what state their various database…
I find this hard to believe. The fund (which is a crappy fund with huge assets) owned less than 2% in UWM (Mainstay Marketfield I is the next biggest at about a third of that), about 10% of the daily volume and they caused a doubling of daily volume…
Perhaps this is the difference between a fund selection approach vs a portfolio allocation approach. So, I will try to explain this a bit more in general detail because I think this is important for the correct use of the site tools.
First, I wasn'…
"Picking the pockets" of Wintergreen shareholders.
Not entirely fair because mutual funds are very different from corporations since the investors are BOTH customers and shareholders. And so are conflicted.
For fund owners and families, investor…
Watch the fund performance and their asset base carefully going forward if you own any of their funds. Such decisions can be bad signs (desperate for assets) as well as good (managers see plenty of good ideas to deploy more cash than they have).
A lot of people thought it was a sure bet with the increasing rates to come and are now sitting there like deer caught in headlights thinking it is just a matter of time to make up the losses.
I have jumped in and out of TBT in my play money portfo…
If they misrepresented, you should be able to switch to this plan w/HSA and the same deductibles with subsidies you had. Scroll down to the bottom of the page for 94% cost sharing benefits for your income level. Same as what you had.
Anthem Silver …
@Kaspa, I know you do momentum investing and so nimble enough to get out on price movements if necessary.
For others, India stock market action seems similar to the Brazil election change hopium that the change will dramatically improve things. Re…
It is difficult in these kinds of reports to figure out which of these managers are just talking their book and which of them are genuinely concerned about bond investors. :-)
I remember that conversation because I didn't think ACA plans were HSA eligible especially because of pharmacy benefits using copay than a high deductible which is a requirement for HSA.
Did they give a reason why for this reversal? If I remember c…
I think it is a bit too much wishful thinking to assume these flows are caused primarily by fee differences or index vs active ideology choices.
A long term trend has been the demise of load funds and very high ER funds (much higher than category a…
His advice is as bad as the advice from people earlier on how one ought to be moving out of bonds into equities that led to the rotation earlier this year. If one stayed diversified from the start, one wouldn't need to make this kind of moves which …
Good article. The next generation needs to understand that risk adjusted returns on labor are no longer sufficient to ensure financial freedom in the US except in very few niche verticals. They either need to find those verticals for a career or fin…
cman: You said : "On close examination, some of these rules contradict each other or contradict other wise views say from John Bogle."
I get the feeling you are a big fan of Bogle.
Want to clarify that I was not trying to pit Bogle against Templet…
Life is more complicated than what is guided by puritanical sayings. These rules are the equivalent in investing.
They aren't wrong per se, but can be interpreted like Rorschach ink blots to justify things good or bad, like @old_Skeet's interpretat…
Read rule number nine in the below link.
http://www.dryassociates.com/16_rules.html
Problem is diversification follows law of diminishing returns. So, there is such a thing as over-diversification. Where that line lies is open to debate, of cour…
Okay, it was the bottom of this, and from December, not only a few months ago; apologies for chron error:
...
Perhaps 'poohpoohing' is unfair/inaccurate.
This is why it is important to discuss in context. Why would you expect me to remember one pos…
A month or three ago I believe I proposed going heavily into AOM / AOR / AOK, contrarily, since bonds were in such disfavor, and you poohpoohed it. I forget your reasoning, though I could look it up. Thoughts?
Please look it up.
I don't remember w…
Isn't an issue here also that if rates rise, US will owe that much more money on its government bonds? So, Fed will likely try to wait until sufficient growth offsets higher rates...while they hope (we hope) it happens.
Whether it is an issue or n…
Don't get me wrong, I'm not sitting here pounding the table to buy treasuries, I'm simply trying to tell what seems to be the completely ignored other side of the story. If anything, it simply speaks to what you are talking about, which is remainin…
Cool. OK, so more simply like "The Ivy Portfolio" that Mebane Faber describes in his book by same title. The so-called generic absolute return portfolio of VTI, VEU, BND, VNQ, and DBC allocated evenly at 20% each. Something like that.
Yes, somethin…
Rather than take positions on bonds and equities like baseball fans choosing their teams and dissing the others, being diversified and staying so through these cycles is the best bet regardless of sentiment.
So, like Bridgewaters' Pure Alpha and A…
The demand for Treasuries from outside primarily comes from central banks or sovereign funds holding dollar reserves. Much of this is in treasuries than actual dollar currency as people often assume. Assets at this level aren't looking for yield, ju…
The big irony is that this is from the VP of research at M*, one of the biggest purveyors of bad math and statistics. He should go take a good look at his own investor returns math and the conclusions drawn from it.
This article will be taken to ba…
This is related to the link posted last month by Ted
mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/13078/efficient-markets-steve-forbes-interviews-cliff-asness-video-presentation
A very good example of contrast between academicians and practioners. I…
Shareholders aren't likely the ones paying for it. They may lose money in their betting against each other based on the problems at GM but that isn't going into GM.
What pays for it will be the paychecks of people who lose their jobs as projects or…
I am impressed by the Moosecall in April for long dated treasuries via EDV. Even though that call was after a significant run already, this asset class has continued to outperform any other asset class.
