Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@LewisBraham. Thanks for sharing that LB. Even for a self proclaimed pessimist Zandi’s report takes one’s breath away. I guess I am fortunate,,,,, I have no job to lose and no adjustable rate loans to go up. On the other hand medical providers m…
@sma. “ when your bank closes ,,,,,,” my friend will just go his his backyard and dig up another few hundred bucks. Maybe he is not so dumb after all. At the end of the failed negotiations,,, will it be the 14th amendment, the trillion dollar coi…
@mikeM. Virtually all Trump supporters and for that matter most repugs vote against their pocketbooks. So to answer your question “would they?” Why wouldn’t they now?They always have. Their culture war issues matter more than anything to them. E…
@msf. Let us say that Treasury’s will not be paying their coupon and are not paying at maturity. And for the sake of pessimism let us say that Social Security payments are delayed. The question is where to keep funds liquid and safe until the re…
As far as equities go default will surely create a great buying opportunity. The question is where to keep the dry powder. Until the situation is resolved the upside is limited but the downside is very significant.
@rforno. As far as I am concerned you nailed it. They have no problem crashing,,,,,, I trimmed our equity allocation today and I did no such thing in 2008 or 2020. Today there are bad people with power who don’t care what happens to the global e…
@Bee. “Some political theater.” I don’t know but theatre implies some kind of a script. I am certain that McCarthy has no script, no plan and really no hope. I would like to know how anyone can sense the possibility of a solution if you can’t fi…
A more challenging problem is accidentally switching your language preference to Chinese. I did that last night and it was difficult to reverse my mistake because everything was in Chinese.
@MSF. thanks for your thoughts. The AEI is not on my reading list. My take on denialism is simply that here and on other boards the very possibility of default is hardly discussed, not that it wouldn’t be horrible. I guess as Martha Reeves wou…
@ Mike W. I just said the same thing to my wife. But wouldn’t that cost Kevin the genius his speakership? I agree that he and Jeffries and five patriots could save the day but Kevin would lose his gavel the next day.
@Anna. I appreciate your comments. I think part of the problem is that no one really knows what to do to protect themselves. I have seen advocates for Treasury instruments and avoid them. I have heard Gold but I can’t imagine switching out equiti…
As evidenced by the lack of interest in this discussion, default denialism is indeed real. Maybe the speaker of the house will suddenly care more about the country than his new title and he will get control of the crazy caucus. But not likely.
@Sven. + 10! “ Does anyone follow the debt ceiling debate?” Thank you for bringing this up. I started a thread in Feb. about default denialism. The country, this board, my family,,, still in denial. X date is getting closer and the government is …
At LewisBraham. His 15 year streak ended in 2006. A remarkable achievement. Think that record will ever be broken? Seems unlikely. Who was Bill Miller?
Nicholas Fund. Third ave value. Sogen international. Mutual shares. Of course Fidelity Magellan. Those are just the ones I can remember. But they come and they go.
I might add to be very certain of exactly how long the money must remain in its new home to retain the bonus. And other fine print. I once lost a bank transfer bonus because I bought a CD with funds from the ONLINE savings account I had transferre…
@Crash. Actually for a person with very little ambition becoming self employed was a bit awkward. But no more looking for another job and no more bosses made it work. For exactly 30 years. Of faking it.
I think that low cost funds were historically found at vanguard. Now one could build a clone of any actively managed fund using cheap ETF’s. It’s possible that one of Vanguard’s great competitive strengths has been eroded going forward. Maybe.
@Hank. I too use this one as a gage. It’s basically 38% VYM and 62% BND. So last years decline mirrored the sum of its parts. But it’s set and forget for its fans. No miracles tho..
@Old_Joe. +.1. Your remarks about the possible hazard of a 5 year CD @5% in the face of declining rates are insightful. And loading up on such counting on the FDIC is an example of a moral hazard.
And the reverse is true too. At some point rates will reach a plateau and then the long awaited pivot might occur. A fund with a six year duration might also be at peak yield. So if rates fall by 3% a healthy total return would be in the cards. …
I am no expert on TIPS,,,, lost a bit with SCHP and then less with STIP last year. An expert on TIPS is David Enna on his site Tipswatch.com. I think that TIPS funds disappointed many investors last year. Buying individual TIPS themselves and hold…
@Old_Joe. My car style is to buy minimalistic cars and keep them forever. We sail a 1999 boat as well. So my habit is to check fluids every time we take her out and the cars on Sunday. Just an old habit. So when we got the car to replace the to…
The car that was totaled was a CPO that was flawless for three years. That’s why we went back to the same dealership and bought a 3 year newer version of the same car, even the same color. Shit happened. But we were lucky we caught the non inspec…
CPO. might be marketing BS or highly inspected and checked out late model car with an extensive warranty. The one I bought had a half a dozen items checks as perfect that weren’t on the car at all. And it was certified in writing the the engine w…
@crash. Thank you for your concern. I was sore and the airbag cut my hand but no great harm. We liked the car so much that we bought the same car,,, three years newer. Big out of pocket. It was a CPO car but I figured out it had never been inspe…
@sma3. People love to talk about California being expensive but our property tax just went up 1.9% year over year. Wasn’t planning on buying a car ever again but our perfect retirement car recently was totaled in an accident. Shit happens.
@LB. My somewhat scattered remarks were not intended to minimize the real suffering that downturns bring. I find it annoying how markets freak whenever rates trend upward,,,, even when they are at historically low levels. And the constant specula…
Hey!!!! Recessions are a part of life in our system. They come and they go. For whatever the reason the next recession is always somewhere in the future. But they are inevitable. The magnitude and length of the next recession are the unknowns. …
@Crash. In 2008 I was busy running a business and I was ten years from retirement. I didn’t have all day to follow the markets every move and digest a hundred other dudes fears. The future of democracy wasn’t in question and the crazy caucus was…
This should be a big winner and game changer in this market segment. But lots of consumers will never forgive VW for its emissions scandal. I am a former manager of a VW dealership, have owned many air and water cooled VWs and I would not trust th…
