Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
From the above report I highlight this page which appears to help investors back test asset allocations with regard to (4) different inflation scenarios. Seems worth studying...discussing.
If Inflation rises quickly and to higher levels (upper righ…
@LewisBraham, I took the author's "100%" to mean invested , not specifically invested "100% in stocks".
"100% invested at ones' asset allocation level" might be a better way to phrase it.
For Warren Buffet's wife that would be 90% S&P 500 an…
As the article points out, a younger investor might comfortably remain invested 100% of the time (10 of more years away from retirement).
Using Portfolio Visualizer one can back test balance funds such as VBINX or FBALX and analyze their 3 & 5…
The stock market is in a very healthy place right now. 93% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average right now. The last time you saw a reading this high was 2013.
My take: We don't appear to be in sell off mode, instea…
The votes on whether to form a union at Amazon.com Inc’s sprawling Alabama fulfillment center are set to be reviewed starting on Tuesday, with momentum for future labor organizing at America’s second-largest private employer hanging in the balance.
…
March 27th Episode:
Bank the Banks
Rotate away from Growth
Rotate into Value
Emerging Market Value
2019 MFO Review:
emerging-market-value-investing-revisited
From @hanks, TRP link:
Given this expected shift, we believe investments that could potentially benefit from higher inflation may add value to an investor’s portfolio. These assets typically include value, small-cap, and emerging markets equities; w…
Honestly you both make good points.
Aside from that... this ETF seems no different than other Tech / Comm Service Funds. Most may even be a bigger target of your legitimate criticisms. I'm glad that the two of you recognize we have compromised on …
Ok...I'll take a shot at this. We build a lock around the ship...raise the water level...and get the "hull" out of there...or what hank thought I said.
Good read:
AquaticIllinoisRiverNavigation
I have not sold off a large FRIFX holding yet, but it provides no real diversity, its steadiness insufficient last March.
I agree... Draw down - peak to valley (Feb-Mar 2020) was almost 27%.
@Mark,
Patience has paid off with POAGX this past year. Three year (2018-2020) performance was average to awful, but much better since March 2020. It has required a long term approach which I continue to have.
I guess what I mean by "steady eddy…
Do Stock hold up during periods of rising rates? I appears more often than not.
Inflation is far more important to stocks than interest rate levels.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/inflation-matters-more-for-the-stock-market-than-interes…
Josh Brown Piece:
On the economic and investment side, the quants at BofA are thinking that... over 60% of the bank’s analysts see rising prices in their respective coverage universe. One of BofA’s top strategists, Michael Hartnett, is talking about…
March 20th Episode:
Notes:
Cyclical Sectors:
Energy
Industrials
Materials
Commodities
Regional Banks
Small Cap Equities
Emerging Markets
Related articles:
types-of-stocks/cyclical-stocks
jpmorgan-on-cyclical-defensive-and-tech-stocks-amid-infla…
Seem we picket (protest) the social / constitutional contracts of our "publicly" run country rather than our "publicly" owned companies...public safety & health, political representation, Individual freedom, entitlement programs, etc. fall at th…
VIX climbed 10% today, but still close to its 52 week low.
VIX Index
The MOVE Index climbed 5%, but is making new 52 week highs:
The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied v…
Family Feuds...
America’s Covid Swab Supply Depends on Two Cousins Who Hate Each Other:
Admiral Brett Giroir, then an assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, had been put in charge of testing, and he had plenty…
Political Pressure on CEO Pay and Taxation:
Sanders invited Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to testify at the Budget Committee hearing, but he declined to appear. Bezos’s salary was $81,840 in 2019, as it has been for many years. But the company calculates hi…
The Boy Who Cried Bubble
Based on his words, Grantham is predicting that U.S. stocks will be below where they were in the summer of 2020 at “some future date”. When Grantham penned this prediction (January 5, 2021), the Dow was at 30,200. The lowe…
Cullen Roche on the need for both Stocks and Bonds:
...we all have specific time horizons on certain liabilities – your rent, your mortgage, your credit card bill, etc. And the key to good financial planning is matching those liabilities with certai…
@davidmoran @Baseball_Fan
I try to remind myself skilled fund managers help manage upside/downside potential. A fund like COTZX attempts to gauge these two dynamics and adjusts its holdings according to maximizing the up and minimizing the down. VW…
The duration for long-term bonds (VBLAX), a measure of how sensitive prices are to interest rates, is 15. An oversimplified way to think about this is a 1% rise in rates would lead to a further 15% decline from here. Yikes.
Vanguard’s total bond fu…
Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary inflation...
Billionaire investor Mike Novogratz says bitcoin will be like a report card that measures how the government is handling citizens' finances
Novogratz indicated that bitcoin is an inflationary hedge an…
After years of accumulating a retirement nest egg using exclusively low cost, well diversified Target Date Funds, determine your income needs and allocate a portion of your portfolio to meet those income needs. Your Target Dated Fund (now very conse…
I thought the Kaiser Health article was very meaty. I experienced first hand how medicare works (cared for family member for 5 years) and I would have no problem with Medicare as a "national health care for all" platform.
We'd pay for premiums thr…
Opinion Pieces:
Impact of Key Provisions of the House COVID-19 Relief Proposal on Marketplace Premiums
impact-of-key-provisions-of-the-house-covid-19-relief-proposal-on-marketplace-premiums
WSJ Article:
supersizing-obamacare-subsidies
I sold a home this year for over asking (price inflation). I plan on doing the same for a collectible car I own (we will see what it sells for).
I suppose equities will continue to inflate as well, but when interests rates rise and demand dries up…
