Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
what's interesting is to not use longest time frame but to set the start date to 2007, so you're going into retirement at a very bad time. i did it w PRWCX. started with 1 mil and at the end of 2019 you had 780k with a max drawdown of 55%, at the …
Here is an article on Perpetual Withdrawal Rates and why it is a better data point than "SWR" (Safe Withdrawal Rate):
So what is a perpetual withdrawal rate, anyway?
By definition, safe withdrawal rates plan for failure. They are explicitly define…
@MJG said,
But a tool does exist to explore the general sensitivity of outcomes to uncertain events. That tool is a Monte Carlo simulator that examines thousands and thousands of possible scenarios. They are fast to use and yield some interesting in…
T Rowe Price Health Science (PRHSX) manager chimes in:
The Fatality Rate Is Likely at or Below 1%
The accumulating evidence on the virus’s fatality rate is more encouraging. Early reports from China suggested that the fatality rate was as high as …
Moral hazard borne out of the neccessity TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE...not choice. Very different than the bailouts of the GFR.
econport.org/content/handbook/Unemployment/Comparing/MoralHazard.html
Careful...Suzie only invest in the stock market what she is comfortable losing:
Orman told a New York Times journalist where she has her OWN money invested…. safe, slow-growing, couldn’t lose-it-if-you-tried municipal bonds! In Orman’s words:
…
And be wary of the cognitive biases of the author of a site called "visual capitalist" towards purveying capitalist propaganda.
Good one...are you also cynical of cynicism?
On another note:
We need people working to provide goods and services:
The Treasury can make up for people’s lost wages, but people need the things wages buy. So replacing lost wages and revenues will not be enough for long: the economy has to prod…
Recent article on:
How the US Government "Monetizes" Debt:
Some thoughts:
I think this mean freeing up debt and turning the debt into money. You and I do this with property. We finance a "cash out refinance" on our homes. We free up cash at a low…
To Continue Howard Marks' Memos -
There’s an old saying –variously attributed –to the effect that “capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism with out hell.” It appeals to me strongly. Markets work best when participants have a healthy fear…
Those industries that use diesel fuel are not enjoying the same discounts as gasoline users however.
Cost of gas and diesel fuel
Kinda interesting why...one explanation:
Diesel fuel, the kind of fuel commonly used in commercial trucks, has not alwa…
VWINX is a fine one stop fund for income and some capital gains. It is paying only a little more than a core bond fund but subject to more equity risk. IT lost 8% in the recent crash.
Looking at VWINX's most recent Drawdown (-8.5%):
https://screenca…
Think of Oil as a feed stock...an inexpensive feed stock. This should serve as an tailwind to many industries...travel, rail, chemicals, food, utilities. Buys into these sectors as they rally and enjoy the improved margins that "cheap oil" will prov…
Unable to find data since 1929
Not 1929 data, but 1987 - to present:
WHOSX (TLT) vs VFINX (S&P 500)
https://screencast.com/t/cYKhbbKQbu8b
More interesting is a portfolio of equal weight (50% WHOSX / 50% VFINX) produced the same long term re…
I stopped touting FLPSX here after a ton of meh, meh responses. Since NY2k, though, it absolutely pounds all of these funds. And with only the one guy at the helm. That's investing. $10k growth of SP500 is to $28k; Tillinghast laps that many times, …
Another read from Eric Basmajian on Inflation / Deflation Debate:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340323-inflation-vs-deflation-tug-of-war
The deflationary thesis holds more weight for three primary reasons.
Weakening rates of population growth …
@Old_Skeet
Have you ever considered keeping track of your portfolio's upside /downside capture and comparing it to a similarly allocated mutual fund / ETF as a benchmark?
From a previous rant:
USAA recently "sold" their Investment division to Charles Schwab for $1.8 Billion. That's $1,800,000,000 in cash. USAA will transfer $90 Billion in assets to Schwab sometime in May 2020. I asked how individual investors (there…
Getting back to inflation... this article worries more about deflation in the near term:
The author:
The mentality of inflation is tomorrow the price of a good will cost more so I will buy as much as I can of it today.
Deflation is the opposite. …
Off-topic, but HSA contributions and earnings aren't tax deductible in CA (and AFAIK NJ).
Not déductible on state income in some states, but federally deductible in all.
https://irs.gov/publications/p969
State Info:
https://thehsareportcard.com/the…
@bee Sorry if I'm being dense. My wife has an HSA through her employer. I understand contributions are tax deferred and I also understand it converts to IRA after you retire, or if you lose your job. What I didn't know however is you can invest it r…
Yes...especially TRP's five star funds...nothing to see here...move along.
Actually here are some global / international choices:
PRGSX
RPGAX
PSILX
PRCNX
@FD1000
When the times come for you or the Mrs to spend $8K month on LTC consider taking a cruise around the world. At least you can say you went out in style. Why warehouse yourself in substandard accommodations when Carnival will provide you with …
@bee can you please how you able to invest our HSA in BRUFX???
I simply set up an HSA account with Bruce Fund...I believe this was a paper application through the mail. I use my bank accounts billpay service to make month contributions electronicall…
USAA recently "sold" their Investment division to Charles Schwab for $1.8 Billion. That's $1,800,000,000 in cash. USAA will transfer $90 Billion in assets to Schwab sometime in May 2020. I asked how individual investors (there are 1 million) will be…
Article from the NYT on The Year Ahead in America with COVID-19:
More than 20 experts in public health, medicine, epidemiology and history shared their thoughts on the future during in-depth interviews. When can we emerge from our homes? How long, r…
This Wealthtrack interview does a good job of further discussing and explaining your second link's topic and discusses the evolution of "Direct Indexing" and Crypto-currency".
Is there any data out there that overlays COVID-19 with other illness related data. Have we lump death related illnesses like the common cold in with COVID-19?
How are we able to rely on the accuracy of this data when we seem so ill prepared with…
Thought this would be worth posting. It points out the value of rebalancing, especially when in retirement and making withdrawals.
https://thefinancebuff.com/better-withdraw-cash-bonds-bear-market.html
I think of net income in terms of total return. Investment gains are often part of taxable income. Marginal tax brackets do increase the drag on total return or better said marginal tax brackets diminish total return.
Most of us need a certain inc…
