Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Ed's February 2018 Commentary on this list:
If our markets are this rubber band which is stretching out further and further, at what point does the rubber band snap, as in the dot.com craze?
https://mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/what-you-see/
Miscreants who deserve far worse... My mom, who is now 94, was bilked by WF Advisors of her last few savings.
A short excerpt of her experience (WF Advisors had bought UTA as part of a put/call income strategy):
I wanted to share some information …
Just a little math and a little music...To qualify for a $800K mortgage in any of these high tax communities requires an pretty sizeable income...your call.
Let say this process of home "loanership" is a 30 year adventure...a decent career for you …
In a recent chat with Barron’s, Minerd also explained the perils facing municipal bonds, given the new tax law’s restrictions on deductibility of state and local taxes.
Doesn't he have this wrong or incompletely thought through? Though municipal pr…
Thanks for posting @Ted,
Anyone on the board using the suggested CEF munis for income?
Here's a link...a little old (2015), but interesting additional information about CEFs (munis).
https://thestreet.com/story/13361802/1/4-fantastic-closed-end-mu…
@LLJB, Investors have to weather the risk of negative returns, but management fee never do. You make a good point...management fees which are spread across all investors, but concentrated into one or a few management teams...are tremendously profita…
@Junkster,
Quote from Jeff G:
Gundlach singled out a few key levels for investors to watch — 2.63% on the 10-year Treasury yield and 3% on the 30-year.
Gundlach says that if these levels are breached, they will be breached together and that yields…
@Ted, Thanks for the article.
Last line from the article say it all:
“CAPE tends to be too pessimistic and PEG may be too optimistic,” Yardeni said by phone. “The truth may lie somewhere in between.”
PRDMX is NTF at Fidelity. Not presently open at Fidelity. May be open directly at TRP.
A few other suggested by Fidelity:
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/779585108?type=sq-NavBar
@msf,
Maybe not so thorough...thanks for your input.
Also, wouldn't a portion these new highs (referenced from the previous recent price) be coming off recent lows? If the market drops 20% in one day (Black Monday?) and on Tuesday the market rose …
This is actually not a "roll over" but a 'conversion" if your IRAs are in tax deferred accounts which I am assuming they are since your mentioned taxes.
Be aware that doing these conversions can impact more than just income tax on these conversion…
This article seems like a good 2018 read for market forecast returns:
Some sniglets:
Quote: I totally reject the notion that bonds have more risk than stocks. A broadly diversified stock fund has more risk in a day than a similarly diversified high-…
@davfor, Thanks for your income recipe. I remember @rono always mentioning - "invest in what you buy". Your healthcare comments make me think that a health fund would serve almost all retirees well. My thought...add VGHCX or PRHSX to this recipe.
…
@Old_Joe & @DavidV,
@Ted suggested VWELX which is Vanguard Wellington (65 Equity/30% Bond) fund. VWINX is Vanguard Wellesley (32% Equity/58% Bond) fund. Ted's suggestion might a bit more aggressive, but a consideration for longevity risk (living…
I've posted this article in the past, but seemed worth re-posting:
From Article:
Criteria:
The Retirement Income withdrawal will be 4% of the beginning investment value with each successive year's withdrawal increasing by 3% to allow for inflation.…
@PRESSmUP, Maybe one day a flat health premium and a flat income tax...two area that should work hand in hand from a cost perspective and be far simpler than they are today.
Congrats and good health.
For the last three years I have gone through the health exchange in my state for health insurance (ACA insurance). I had the same plan - a Bronze plan, Health Savings Acct compliant, PPO - each year.
Here are the numbers:
A small amount of addi…
@hank,
If missed, this was a recent interview with S. Druckenmiller:
https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-legendary-investor-stanley-druckenmiller/vi-BBGHG6I?ocid=se
Buy on the dips...FinTech, Automation, Robotics, Robo-Advisors, Medical Devices, Bio-Tech, Media, Tele-Communications, Autonomous Vehicles, Smart Everything (except maybe people)...do you really think Tech is growing dimmer?
Volatility will return,…
@MikeM, thanks for the thread.
I would say the 4 year "safe money" helps protect against a temporary downturn or market risk.
Over a long retirement time period, I would ponder how to combat:
- "Flight to safety" risk...maybe consider a little gol…
If you believe in EM (the tail of the dragon) pay attention to the dragon (China). Replace "Dragon" with "Dog" when China mishandles one of its many reforms...EM will "swing happily" or "tuck under" depending on China's reform successes.
Europe...…
VT
Vanguard Total World Stock etf VT is a solid one-stop choice for exposure to global stocks. It accurately represents the global investable universe and is well diversified.
morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vt/quote.html
@Junkster, @PBKCM et al...
I recently tried to digest an Alt strategy which suggested shorting or buying puts of HYG (Junk Bonds).
I believe the strategy would pair the shorted or put position of HY bond (HYG) along with owning an equity position…
@randynevin, Thanks for mentioning this fund.
Seems like the perfect example of where cost matters.
Each share class charges a different set of fees (Expense Ratio & Loads, 12-b1, etc) causing most of this distortion in the NAVs of the same f…
Great minds thread alike:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/37338/etf-playbook-for-2018-astoria-advisors/p1
Glad this was re-posted because it is well worth the read along with the interview I also linked.
@Mark, you make an interesting point that was echoed in this podcast I listen to today. It centered on two Amazon warehouses that opened in two US towns...one in Texas and one in Minnesota.
Each town cut a deal (provided tax incentives and grants)…
@hank,
Notice this as well.
Firstly, @TheShadow does an awesome job and provides a great service to us with the "Capital Gains Thread", but I'd like a website dedicated to searching individual ticker symbols for gain gains/ dividends information.
…
@davimoran,
Not sure I agree with the author when he states that someone employed by a business is in a "similar situation" to someone who owns that business...he states,
This violates a basic rule of good tax policy: that taxpayers with similar sit…
@davidmoran, I'll take that as a small unintentional achievement. I don't wish to fit into some box you choose to put me in...oops, there I go again.
@Old_Joe, I fully support "Wine, Women and Song", but Grassley is being hypocritical if he also d…
@Old_Joe...sounds almost envious to me...let's think about a farmers, who saved their whole life for that rainy day.
In a sense, the "salt of the earth" (have the Iowa farmers become big business...maybe?) and have they joined non-farm Corporate A…
@Junkster,
Reading your insights and appreciation for the surprises of the HY Bonds market is every bit as interesting and inspiring as a good episode of not-so-junk food on Diners, Drive-ins and Dives.
@JunksterBondFoodForThought...Thanks.
@MJG your comment,
Therefore, I take issue with Ben Carlson's closing statement. Portfolio volatility matters; it is your enemy.
I'm not sure if you read the link that the last line hyperlinked to (and you referenced) , but if you didn't, I'll link…
Present rule of law creeps this administration out while the administration's undermining of the rule of law may soon creep the markets out.
One that may shake thing up is presented here:
the-market-shock-no-one-is-ready-for
And a Bloomberg Opini…
