Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
@Old_Joe, I first came across it on Apple News that I subscribe to. It explains the bond world in details with relevant graphs on each points. The rise of long treasuries (10 years treasury for example) since last October to near 5% today has negat…
Think this is the WSJ article “ Why Bond Yields Are Surging Around the World” that @Old_Joe was referring to. It is behind a paywall. Perhaps you can get it through your local library.
https://wsj.com/finance/bond-yields-rising-charts-367dba8a?p…
Giruox’s PRWCX has a large long term capital gain distribution in 2024; much more than recent years. In light of what he stated in Barron’s round table discussion, the market is very expensive. Not just the Mag 7, but the rest of S&P 500 are ab…
It gets better now that Elon Musk and another MAGA supporter, Stephen Miller on H-1b visa. Let's see who comes out of this fight.
https://vox.com/politics/392864/elon-musk-vivek-h1b-visas-trump-stephen-miller
@BenWP,
we live in Pacific Northwest for several decades and observed wildfires in the urban areas more frequently in recents years. We used to think it is too wet here for most of the year so that there are few combustible materials available. W…
Thanks to @bee, here is last fall’ WeathTrack interview on David Giroux. Please scroll down to find it.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/184746/#Comment_184746
Giruox became bearish on the market due to the historical hi…
Somehow I think these new land acquisition is nothing more than diversion tactics. Many of the candidates who are poorly qualified for the position. in the confirmation. Only several active government officials including Rubio have been confirmed.…
After you leave your company, you can transfer the 401(K) to a brokerage as a rollover IRA. While you are still working, it is generally NOT allow to move the 401(k) fund. You may want to contact your 401(k) administrator.
Under special hardshi…
That is small cost that is worthwhile for your engine’s longevity. Our engines using synthetic blend oil have made over 200,000 miles in the last 15 years and counting. A new car today costs a minimum of $30K and quality oils make all the differenc…
Full synthetic oils cost more than regular oils used in gasoline engines, about 2X. Partial synthetic oils are blends of synthetic and regular oils. Synthetic oils work great in today's high compression engines, especially in cold climate. Partia…
@davidmoran,
The honest answer is that I don’t have a good idea of whether BND and VGIT can get 4% total return in 2025.
After 3 rate cuts (a total of 100 bps reduction) in 2024, both BND and VGIT were disappointing with TR of 1.2% and 1.3%, res…
Happy New Year everyone. May you have a prosperous 2025!
Most of my buys are in bonds, not so much stocks. Perhaps when stocks are at better prices in 2025.
Only money market fund and treasury will not loss value in severe drawdowns. There is always risk investing in stocks and bonds. The realistic question is what is the recovery duration. During spring 2020 COVID drawdown, just about all bonds fell…
I agree with @AndyJ on public parks. They charge a few bucks here and there to cover extra services they provide. When I was active with the local hiking club, we donated our time to cleanup and rebuild the trails. With a dozen or more able bodies…
Yields fell since the rate cut this week. Most noncallable CD’s (1-2 years) are yielding 4.2% at Fidelity. Still sticking with T bills and USFR in non-IRA accounts.
Junk still looks good. Also leveraged loans, bank loans. Stay very short on duration.
Ironically these higher risk bonds did much better than the safer investment grade bonds. As long as labor market stays healthy one can expect this trend contin…
No buying here. Just watching if this situation worsen. Cash is building up as T bills are maturing.
Let’s hope an agreement will reach on time until the next Continuing Resolution vote.
Making correction to my earlier posting.
Better: ARTKX -6.3%, FMIJX -3.8%, FPACX -2.3%, CGBL 2.5%, RSIIX +0.0%
Worse: BND -1.8%
This is more like a thought exercise. A 10 days performance varies quite a bit. However, I like to compare each fund/E…
Here is more details from the funding bill mess. Quote from the article.
Musk didn’t seem to think a government shutdown would have significant consequences for the country. He responded “YES” to a post that read, “Just close down the govt until …
Here is the active link above.
https://irs.gov/newsroom/401k-limit-increases-to-23500-for-2025-ira-limit-remains-7000
Another way to get additional saving is through their employer’s matching contributions, often at 4% or more of their salary. T…
@yogibb, thank you for your detail report on FOMC meeting today.
The negative reaction from the stock and bond markets to the rate cut is not unexpected. The market will likely to stay volatile now that the government revisit a potential shutdow…
There is a new memecoins, Fartcoin, that I got to get some….
https://nbcnews.com/business/personal-finance/memecoins-what-are-they-why-are-they-popular-cryptocurrency-rcna184223
We have been swapping more SPY for short term high yield bond funds si…
We are likely to revisit a government shutdown as the one during his first term in 2018-2019. Can’t believe that Johnson is bending to his demands and he has not even swore in until January 20, 2025.
What sounds appealing on the campaign trail will bring about unintended consequences. Even Giroux said on the recent WealthTrack interview that tariffs and immigration will bring inflationary pressure. Who will pay the tariffs in the end? Likely t…
It is no surprise that Grandeur Peaks funds are reopening since they trail the benchmark badly and AUM falls.
Wish they spent less time writing their travel adventures and more time in managing their portfolios. See previous posting on GP funds in…
With the inflation being sticky, it is likely the rate will stay higher and longer with fewer cuts in 2025. One pundit mentioned there may be no cut next year and one or two cut in 2026.
Since this fall, there has been more political instability from one region to another. We have been pulling back a bit on stocks and increasing the cash position. Don’t like what we are seeing going into 2025 - high US stock valuation, sticky infla…
The return of polio and smallpox (and other preventable diseases) would be devastating for the future generations. The idiots have not learned the wonder of vaccines.
Edit: Even the previous FDA head appointed by Trump in 2017 is against Kenned…
