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Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
It is to see negative correlation between bonds to stocks at work today. Investment grade bonds did well. Short tern junk bonds lost a bit.
The 10 years treasury fell 10 bps.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-r…
Thank you. Very well written. Excerpt from her article.
Now, even Trump won’t rule out a potential recession. If other consequences of Trump mismanagement and chaos manufacturing arise (e.g., a government shutdown, a default on the U.S. debt, esc…
I believe all of us were vaccinated as kids when we entered public school, and it should still be effective against measles. For the elderly who have compromised health, a booster shot is recommended according to my doctor. Two confirmed dead in Tex…
No surprise here since he does not knows his math in building business with sustainable profit. His first wife, Ivana, was the brain behind the building of his real estate business. She did all the work, negotiated with the seller, and secure finan…
Some speculated that this administration wants to cause a recession, then they look like hero to have the FED cut interest rate. I don't buy it, but can they be that stupid!
In the meantime, there will be many collateral damages to the economy esp…
I too had cod liver oil as a child. Gross! I will stay with a well balanced diet.
By the way, I got a measles vaccine recently as my primary care physician recommended. Measles was eradicated from the US population by year 2000 through vaccinati…
Good comment from Asness.
My criticism has been narrowly focused on PE’s lack of mark-to-market valuations and some of the implications this brings. The illiquidity and nonmarking were once implicitly acknowledged, appropriately, as a bug, but are n…
There is no free lunch in high yield bonds. They fall much more in drawdown than that of treasury, for example. 2008 and 2020 drawdowns are good reminder.
On our fixed income bucket, we have 1/3 high yield, 1/3 IG bonds, and 1/3 cash. In recent …
Agree. In recent weeks, the dollar has been falling against several major currencies according to the dollar index. There are other implications suggesting negative outlooks.
Five cut is a lot due to current inflation is higher than that of 2% target. If inflation ticks higher from tariffs, one can expected higher and longer rate scenario. So who paints himself into corner ?
The other scenario is US enters a recession…
Warren Buffet descibes Tariffs are ‘an act of war’ in his rare CNN interview.
https://cnn.com/2025/03/03/business/warren-buffett-tariffs-trump/index.html
One has to watch the “The Apprentice (the film released in 2024)” to better understand Trump as a businessman. It is quite chilling as it reveals Trump’s dealing in business. Now he applies them in politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_App…
Long, really long. However, fact-check his state of the union is enlightening.
https://npr.org/2025/03/04/g-s1-50488/trump-congress-joint-address-fact-check
I understand you concern. That is why I stated, "for now". No one really know what treasury department looks like a year from now.
The other choices are high quality corporate bonds, or money market.
To add content to @Junkster's comment above:
https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/atlanta-fed-posts-alarming-new-economic-projection-of-trumps-first-quarter/ar-AA1AabBo?ocid=BingNewsVerp
Please see the plot.
Treasury is less risky than that of corporate bonds. For now, treasury department operates independently from the executive branch.
Alternatively, take a page from Warren Buffet and buy T bills. He takes no chances with $360 billion in cash. H…
US stock market is all RED today due to tariffs concern: DJIA -1.5%, NASDAQ, -2.6%, S&P500 -1.78%. What are these business people thinking ? American exceptionalism, really?
@yogibb, thank you for the pertinent information. I’m not familiar on the methodology/data FED uses in forecasting the quarterly GDP. Two sources provided similar negative numbers and that is concerning. Last time GDP went negative was during COVID…
Hackman is an incredible actor, who played many roles in memorable movies. NPR listed many of them that spanned way back in Bonnie & Cycle.
https://npr.org/2025/03/01/nx-s1-5305757/remembering-gene-hackman
RIP. Many of us will miss you.
@yogibb said,
Noted in Barron's - Economy:
Atlanta Fed GDPNow is projecting economic contraction for 2025/Q1 of -1.5% (real) vs +2.3% previously, while Piper Sandler switched to -2% from +2% previously.
@yogibb, The economy is slowing, but this i…
Mag 7 stocks are behaving differently these days. Tesla stock is trailing badly from its peak. Sale in China grew only 1% while the local Chinese brands are growing in double digits.
Otherwise, we are increasing cash position via our treasury ladd…
Barrons’ ranking is not much different from the Morningstar’s.
Thanks to @Charles and company. One can get more useful data from MFO Premium on OEFs and ETFs over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years periods.
Next Tuesday, March 4th is when tariffs will start with Canada and Mexico (25%) and China. There has been talk about EU in next too.. Will investor sentiment improve?
The consequences of both layoffs (government and freezing funding) could be much bigger than initially thought of on the economy. Consumer spending in 2008 was very bad and it took several years before people want to spend. The worst part is that i…
Thanks @Mark. The anti-science attitude is truly disturbing as NIH funding is being cut. Part of the funding goes to many health research institutes including Mayo Clinic.
Their reasoning is that they need to review the panel process when these…
Apparently these ETFs are traded with a slight premium, which may indicate investor demand.
I wonder how these ETFs compare to DIY treasury ladder consisting of i, 1.5, 3, 6, and 12 months T bills.
@hank, I stand corrected. Yes, the future market starts to trade on Sunday evening. What I saw was from Friday. Need more coffee to wake up. My post is corrected.
I remember those facts covered in my high school history class. An acquaintance recently said quietly “Will we have the United States 4 years from now ?” Coming from this conservative individual, it is very disturbing.
I like @Crash asset allocation. With all the turmoil and tariffs. Monday’s future market looks bleak, even gold.
https://cnbc.com/pre-markets/
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Mark your calendar, March 14, 2025. Will the government shut down?
For Vanguard, it requires a bit more work. Here is an excerpt form Bodgeheads forum,
HOW TO:
locking down your Vanguard account against ACATS Fraud :
yes you can at Vanguard ,
however you must call the Vanguard "security department" and make a…
@Mona, thank you for the article. We have placed lockdown on all our Fidelity accounts. While it was easier to transfer assets, but it poses vulnerability within the system for bad actors from exploiting it.
Edit: for Fidelity customers, lockdo…
@Mona,
US dollar continues to rise against other major currencies and that poses sizable headwind for foreign stocks. Foreign index funds are generally NOT currency hedged as they lag US stocks for sometime now. I trimmed these positions ( while m…
