Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The Week in Charts (04/18/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:18 Topics
00:52 Global Trade Chaos
06:40 A Self-Inflicted Recession?
14:50 "The US Doesn't Make Anything Anymore"
19:35 The Mag 7…
"The nice thing is there’s a point of view to match every type of investor or political leaning."
This is very true!
"My take - The major indexes are off for the year. But that follows a couple stellar years."
The S&P 500 had two consecutive ye…
The Ask the Compound crew received many questions from anxious readers expressing concerns
about stocks and the present investing environment. The crew provides some context for the current situation
and offers potentially helpful suggestions. There…
"go ahead and scream 3 times daily"
You are the one who is "screaming."
Your incessant whining is extremely disruptive to the forum!
"My main point stands: this thread was a rant about NOTHING."
This thread is for discussing how the U.S. dollar and…
Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee discusses tariffs and recent threats to fire Jerome Powell.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chicago-fed-president-on-trumps-trade-war-and-threats-to-fire-powell
Excerpted from Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American (April 17).
Bolded text was added by me.
"Today a federal appeals court rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to stop Judge Paula Xinis’s order that it 'take all available step…
[snip]
Here is another article from 2016(link)
"Donald Trump is a "dangerous, destructive" choice"..."The letter, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, was signed by 370 economists, including eight Nobel Prize winners."
[snip]
The letter refe…
I find it incomprehensible that Trump still has a 47% favorability rating after
his irrationality, incompetence, and disregard for the law were fully displayed.
If this rating represents 47% of the overall population, I concur with Crash: "we are sc…
The IMF reports that the US dollar's role as a reserve currency has gradually declined over the last two decades.
Interestingly, this decline was not matched by increases for the euro, yen, or pound.
"Dollar dominance—the outsized role of the US d…
The dollar is too integral in global finance to lose its reserve status any time soon.
There is no other currency (e.g., Euro, Yen, Renminbi) that could take its place.
However, the dollar's dominance as a reserve currency could erode due to recent …
I recently posted the following in another thread.
The US has the exorbitant privilege of the dollar being the world's reserve currency.
No other currency in history has been so globally dominant.
Foreign exchange reserves are most often denominate…
"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the central bank could have less flexibility
to quickly cushion the economy from the fallout of President Trump’s trade war,
sending stocks down on Wednesday."
"Powell also hinted that the central ba…
The article doesn't provide many details and includes lots of "corporate speak."
"Wellington Management ('Wellington'), Vanguard, and Blackstone (NYSE: BX) today announced
a strategic alliance to transform how investors access institutional-caliber…
"At present, ARTKX is closed to new investors while ARTGX is still open."
David Samra is the Managing Director for ARDBX but he doesn't make final investment decisions for the fund.
The fund's investment process resembles that of ARTKX.
Both ARDBX …
David Samra has done a great job with ARTKX - its performance has been excellent.
VWIGX is also a very good, but volatile, fund.
Although I admire many of parent firm's Fiduciary Management Inc. practices, I'm not sold on FMIJX.
This foreign fund is…
[snip]
Basically, there are 5-7 posters that turn this site into a political rant in many threads.
I participate in several investment sites and this is the only one that keeps doing it
and this site used to be one of the best.
I also participate in…
OAKIX annual returns were often inconsistent.
It wasn't uncommon for 1 yr., 3 yr., and 5 yr. fund category returns
to alternate from top decile to bottom decile and vice versa.
I haven't paid close attention to Oakmark funds for quite some time.
I j…
The US has the exorbitant privilege of the dollar being the world's reserve currency.
No other currency in history has been so globally dominant.
Foreign exchange reserves are most often denominated in US dollars.
Three quarters of global trade and…
[snip]
TDS is a major lib illness.
What can you do now
1) stop reading the same sources that claim the US is close to destruction.
2) most investors should hold their asset allocation according to their goals and hardly trade.
Trump Denial Syndrom…
@Level5,
RCTIX portfolio managers have really decreased CLO exposure.
Prior RCTIX Fact Sheets showed the following CLO allocations.
The February 2022 Fact Sheet is the latest one in my possession
since I exited the fund after George Jikovski left a…
@yogibearbull
Thank for sharing this CLO information.
In recent years, I considered investing in a dedicated CLO fund¹.
CLO funds with high credit ratings offered greater yields than other bond funds with similar credit ratings.
Default risk was sa…
"So far, Greene is the only member of Congress known to have bought stocks after markets tanked following Trump's initial 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements."
It would not surprise me if close Trump allies demonstrated their "investing acumen"
b…
Sven,
Fund liquidations and fund mergers are distinct possibilities.
In light of recent events, I too question whether Matthews can effectively run their business
and wouldn't be surprised if they were acquired by another firm.
I don't pay much att…
Just read the following short note about Matthews China Fund in M* Fund Investor (April 2025).
Matthews Asia dismissed five additional portfolio managers along with two analysts earlier this year.
Matthews China recently lost one of its comanagers …
@Crash,
"Snopes has yet to confirm that Carney orchestrated a U.S. Treasurys sell-off in closed-door meetings
with European and Japanese leaders. We contacted Blundell to ask how he first came upon the information
he relayed in his newsletter. We w…
Two comments.
Volatility creates opportunities.
Injecting daily politics as a basis for investment analysis isn't a good choice.
Heightened volatility due to massive uncertainty increases the likelihood of a serious "accident."
It's unwise to ignor…
From WSJ (Live Updates section).
Potential tariff pauses for auto manufacturers were announced today.
How can business operators implement any plans while this senseless tariff policy is in effect?
Bolded text added for emphasis.
"The president al…
"All 11 S&P 500 sectors are down since the announcement, with energy the hardest hit. That is because oil prices have tumbled to their lowest levels since 2021 on fears that a global recession will curb demand."
"The materials and consumer-disc…
"In volatile moments like this one, investors look for signs of borrowers under duress,
forced selling and illiquidity. Those gauges offer clues on where the markets are headed,
and how the selloff is beginning to ripple through the economy."
https…
@FD1000,
This thread is for discussing tariffs not DOGE.
Please stay on topic.
If you would like to discuss DOGE, I would suggest creating a new Off-Topic thread for this purpose.
It's interesting when people use pretzel logic in an attempt to somehow justify Trump's terrible tariffs.
The tariff "plan" is clearly absurd (e.g., rate calculations, taxing uninhabited islands)
and it was implemented haphazardly. Communication fro…
