Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
I only glanced at the conclusions section and the graphs.
This Duke academic study is essentially a wash relative to the active-passive fund management debate. It only considered a 10-year period that ended 6 years ago.
The Professors c…
Hi Guys,
All you contributors to this post are terrific.
Admitting a mistake, especially a wealth robbing investment mistake, is not an easy assignment. And you guys voluntarily did it. I’m impressed.
To quote John C. Maxwell: “A man must be bi…
Hi Guys,
No shocker here. I too oppose a 40-word constraint. On the Internet, credibility is a perennial issue. It really can not be established without numbers, references, and interpretations. That takes words. Assertions simply don't do an …
Hi Guys,
Your many fine posts easily document that financial literacy is a hot debatable topic. It surely is.
From my limited and somewhat uninformed perspective, even the name is debatable; I see it more as financial illiteracy than literacy. W…
Hi Guys,
Change happens, especially in the marketplace. That change promotes personal investment changes, transformations in overarching philosophy and styles. Failure to do so could be ruinous for a portfolio’s end wealth. I changed; Paul Merri…
Hi Hank,
You expressed an interest in earlier S&P Persistence Scorecards that contain Bear market performance records.
The S&P team has been doing this type of analyses for some time now, and their earlier reports are accessible. Here is …
Hi Guys,
Most of the population finds it a challenge to say “I was wrong”. I have never suffered that deficiency. I am frequently wrong and recognition of that possibility (even likelihood) has helped me in decision making and managing projects.
…
HibTampabay,
The primary focus of the article was about performance persistency. That's why the S&P Persistency scorecard was the referenced document.
Again back to the baseball analogy, the issue is if a .300 hitter in year One is likely to …
Hi Tampabay,
Let's not carry the baseball analogy too far; analogies are imperfect.
But, extending the baseball analogy just a little further, staffing a ball club with high priced hitting stars does not guarantee winning. It likely improves the…
Hi Guys,
Be careful here; be very careful indeed.
Trustworthy statistical sets don’t lie when based on honestly representative surveys. Their interpretations are an entirely different matter. In those interpretations, definitions matter greatly.…
Hi STB65,
You ask the same difficult question that all generations have asked. It's truly a question without a precise answer, but history might provide a few clues.
I was motivated to post on Pi Day while thinking back to where we were on the la…
Hi John,
The New Zealanders love their children, their sheep, and their sheep herding dogs - not necessarily in that order. They're more British than the Brits.
Have a great time wherever your roads take you.
Best Wishes.
Hi Ted,
You got it right. I was wrong. Note the past tense verb since you properly corrected me. I'm somewhat preoccupied with my Pi Day celebration.
Best Wishes.
Hi John,
Happy trails! Oops, that's more properly addresses to Gene Autry.
Regardless, many Happy Trails to you too. Be both save and smart.
Best Wishes.
Hi Maurice,
Thanks for your very funny closing remark. I agree. Humor goes a long way to defusing a heated topic and encourages civil debate.
Your opening remark about open-mindedness and subsequent actions illustrate the common gap between what…
Hi Guys,
Some very exercised folks and heated submittals here.
No political biases here. None.
No liberal lunatic hatch job here. None.
No right-wingnut hatch job here. None.
Yeh, sure.
MFOers sometimes recognize that it is a waste of time …
Hi Guys,
Well, Old Joe knows how to nudge the hornets nest into activity. Thanks Old Joe.
Indeed, the wealth distribution gap between the rich and the poor has expanded over time. This outcome is not entirely surprising. It is an expected outcom…
Hi Ted,
And the readership count keeps increasing. Many thanks to you.
But you have elected far too easy a hurdle when you choose John Wayne as the standard for good looks. Everyone satisfies that standard which, of course, is a necessary qualif…
Hi Hank,
I’m puzzled. Your detailed questions are quickly approaching fetish proportions. They suggest a hidden agenda or a commitment to a belief that is running aground against the rocks of real data. The studies that I have referenced are co…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for reading my post. Sorry it is so negative with respect to your earlier submittal, but I believe some of your comments are prompted by your unfamiliarity with the annual DALBAR Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB)…
Hi Davidrmoran,
The need to report the mean or the median of any data set depends to a large degree on the asymmetry in the data distribution. The greater the asymmetry, the greater is the need to include both statistical measures.
Being a number…
Hi Hank,
I too find the statistic that investors on “average” claim roughly only one-third of recorded returns very shocking. I don’t want to believe that this cohort (my cohort) is that inept. But multiple studies loosely reproduce that finding …
Hi Catch22,
Thank you so much for your thoughtful contribution.
I concur that investing knowledge is a key to success along with patience and discipline. The knowledge portion is accumulated over time, study, practice, and experiences.
It is not …
Hi Slick,
I like your endorsement of Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” book. It is a bedrock classic that has survived the erosive impact of a changing dynamic marketplace. Its many releases over time speaks volumes for its enduring va…
Hi JoJo26,
Generally speaking, it is not an especially good idea to mix entertainment and investing. Seeking entertainment when making investment decisions can indeed be a very expensive pursuit.
Regardless, investment books can be stimulating, a…
Hi Scott,
Thanks for your input.
I agree that both investors and even professionals are operating on a much shorter and faster clock. The old timers would term this speculating and not investing. I remain an investor and did not know of the mark…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for the heads-up.
I've corrected the Link to Kinnel's work such that MFOers should gain access to at least the first page of his article. The first page contains the table that highlights the investor shortfalls relative to the fun…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for reading my post; many more thanks for your generous comments.
After submitting, I realized that I omitted an important qualifier that I interpret from the referenced Vanguard study. Another thanks for charitably ignoring th…
Hi Guys,
As often recognized on MFO, statistics can be often misinterpreted or plain wrong. It depends on the quality of the statistical study, on the randomness of the data sources and their population representativeness. Statistical data can ca…
Hi Guys,
I have long respected GMO. They do high quality work. The GMO 7-year forecast has a reasonable, but imperfect, accuracy score; it is much superior to most forecasters. Therefore, I hesitate to challenge any of their fine research. But I …
Hi Guys,
IF you are at all familiar with my postings, you positively anticipated that I would toss my two cents into this topic pot. You are 110% prescient on this matter.
But that percentage is an obviously impossible error. It’s one of many er…
Hi Old Joe,
Thanks for your atta-boy.
Although I'm a long time fan of Micchael Price and his crystal clear disclosures of his investing approach, I totally agree with your observation that it is a near impossibility to execute for most investors (…
Hi Charles,
I completely agree. High fees are a daunting hurdle and often overwhelm active fund managers.
The Muttual fund series always had below average fees. That's an attractive element in the fund decision process. I suspect that I passed …
Hi Guys,
I have never owned any Wintergreen product.
But in the 1990s I did own Michael Price’s Mutual Qualified fund which did employ David Winters as a major fund sub-manager. Since he sat at the feet of star manager Price, I presume he did le…
Hi Roy,
Yes, my portfolio is a mix of passive and actively managed funds.
About a decade ago my portfolio was 100 % actively managed funds and individual stocks. Today, I own zero stocks and roughly 35 % is with active products. My plan is to re…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for the respectful commentary. It surely expanded the scope of the discussion in a positive way.
Funds are being born and buried in an increasingly frantic manner each year. It's getting harder to keep pace and MFO is help…
Hi Roy,
Thanks for your brief list of current superior Balanced mutual funds. Fortunately, I have owned two of them for over two decades. Given my meager financial knowledge at my entry date, I was more lucky and less skilled when making those de…
Hi Guys,
Thanks for this very vigorous MFO discussion exchange. The divergent perspectives are well reasoned and themselves sometimes complex. But I do not find the issue to be especially difficult. While I can not control investment outcomes, I…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for joining the discussion with your excellent submittals. It was uniformly great stuff.
My opening remarks were rather dry and one-dimensional. Your comments were multi-dimensional and expanded the discussion by an order …
Hi Scott,
I don't recall specific details because it changed depending on age, the family relationship, and time period. For our kids, my wife opened the accounts. With relatives, it often took the form of cash with specific instructions. The in…
