Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
Lifetime learning is best done by doing and not by classroom listening. That’s why successful educators insist on a student completing daily essay and mathematics assignments. It’s a jump start to the continual learning process.
This is…
Hi Old Joe,
Thank you for the tip on Peter L. Bernstein’s “The Power of Gold” book. I fully trust your favorable endorsement.
I’m embarrassed to admit that I’ve owned a paperback copy of the book for years, yet never opened its cover. I bought i…
Hi Hank,
Many thanks for your fine posting that highlights very special parts of this month’s MFO Commentary section. This month’s edition does have its complex components that will require a reread for a fuller understanding. But it’s worth the …
Hi Davidrmoran,
I am familiar with several money management firms that assert investment policies and strategies that promise downside protection. Some do so by using a multi-asset strategy that suggests a reduced return (like 80% of the S&P 50…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for your insightful and entertaining comments. They were fun.
But I was disappointed that none of them addressed a main theme of the Maubousian talk and how that theme impacts mutual fund investment choices.
Today, most tr…
Hi Junkster,
Thanks for your observations.
I too am a great fan of Williams. I had the privilege of seeing both Williams and Joe DiMaggio at Yankee Statium many times. Williams was always a hero for me although I was a New Yorker at that time.
…
Hi Tampabay,
Thank you for your comments.
Neither Buffett or Williams were especially lucky. Both had exceptional skills in their professional areas. But some luck was layered atop these elevated skill sets.
That layering is a likely explanatio…
Hi Kaspa,
You have a fascinating story that merits telling. And you tell it well; it is a terrific story with many valuable lessons.
Congratulations on your wise choices and excellent decision making. Congratulations on recognizing that luck als…
Hi Guys,
Since weather immediately impacts daily decisions, folks always express divergent opinions on it, and its forecasted accuracy. It does matter. I suppose a measure of its success or failure depends on the weather's impact on your normal a…
Hi Hank,
Even without these external random events, weather forecasting is a challenge.
This is the current state of the art despite better physical modeling and vastly improved instruments and data collection stations. Given the feedback mechanis…
Hi Again Old Joe,
Thank you for removing me from your list. I worry what other lists you maintain.
I don't understand why my "Education level and net worth" statement troubled you. My full statement indicated that they were highly correlated, no…
Hi Old Joe,
In this instance, you are only half wrong with certainty..
Throughout my life I have always believed that luck is a major factor.
My greatest unlikely event was meeting my future wife while I was in the military. The chances for that…
Hi Guys,
Yet another example of a failed forecast.
Forecasters just can't forecast. And that doubles down for financial forecasters as the records demonstrate.
Best Wishes for a dry, sunny day.
Hi Guys,
Education level and net worth are not just positively correlated; they are highly correlated.
That's much more than just me making an assertion. Every single study on this subject that I have ever seen documents that claim. Sure these s…
Hi Guys,
I studied in New York City for two years.
New Yorkers are tough, resourceful folks. The storm is a blip that will marginally and momentarily suppress consumer spending. Recovery will follow immediately as New York dumps the snow into th…
Hi Ted,
Many thanks for the other Periodic Table of Returns references. They all inform.
It doesn't much matter if these Tables are take offs, takeoffs, take aways, or whatever. What does matter is that all these graphic summaries demonstrate a …
Hi Maurice,
Great question!
I have no special access or insights into the QUSIX strategy sessions, so I can offer only some speculative guesstimates.
The QUSIX overarching evaluation and selection process is a multi-.stage, disciplined, and botto…
Hi JohnChisum,
Thanks for your mouth watering reply. I fondly remember that meal and salivated as I read your submittal.
As attractive as your English dish is, I doubt it will ever be offered as an option in these psychological behavioral experim…
Hi Tampabay,
Thank you for your response. But I'm a bit baffled.
I don't understand the relevancy of your comment, most likely because I'm completely unfamiliar with Amscot. I don't know the origanization whatsoever.
Please tell us the Amscot s…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for the really nice exchange coupling charts like those generated by Callan and a reversion-to-the-mean investment strategy. A discussion of the merits and shortfalls of those charts and how they can be interpreted to improve in…
Hi Tanpabay, Hi Mrdarcy,
Thank you for reading and reacting to my posts. I really appreciate feedback since that implies that I reached both your minds and your emotions.
But I didn’t expect the harsh nature of your highly charged replies. I sup…
Hi Guys,
I agree with the many earlier posters.
As a generic rule of thumb, the 4% retirement drawdown is an excellent departure point. But like all general rules, it depends. Adjustments must be made depending on specific circumstances like age,…
Hi AKAFlack,
Thank you for gracing this discussion. Your welcomed contributions are always thought provoking, sometimes provocative, but consistently add to an investor’s perspective.
Thank you also for your generous and kind words with regard to…
Hi Guys,
In contrast to the main theme of the referenced article, I do not find that the active investment world has been turned topsy-turvy. The active fund management performance this year is just a slight outlier from its normal dismal record. …
Hi Dex,
Sorry for my long delay in reading and responding to your post. During this holiday season my dance-card has been especially full.
Thank you for your line-by-line review and commentary on the Morgan Housel rules of investing engagement li…
Hi AKAFlack,
It is nice to hear from you again after such a long silence period. I hope you still access MFO on at least a semi-regular basis. I missed your comments; I trust many other MFO members missed your insights too.
I’m a little surprise…
Hi Guys,
The pantheon of exceptional financial article writers is not populated by an especially large number of souls. That limited number is greatly reduced if only currently active writers are considered.
In my opinion, two members of this dis…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for reading my post during this Holiday season, with a special thanks for you guys who replied. I’m a firm believer in the benefits of measured and respectful interchange and debate.
Upon reflection, several of Housel’s rul…
Hi Charles and Other MFO Gang Members,
Indeed, contradictory events and advice proliferate everywhere. When making significant decisions, it presents a perplexing problem. It’s always been so. That’s why some very special leaders make the big bu…
Hi Ted,
The title of the Barron's article is " A Glimmer of Hope for Active Fund Managers". Here is a Link to it:
http://online.barrons.com/articles/a-glimmer-of-hope-for-active-fund-managers-1418437745
I suspect that one major factor contributi…
Hi Mark,
I suspect the answer to your short readership number question is nicely summarized by a line from Simon and Garfunkel’s song “The Boxer”: “A man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest”.
The short readership number only refl…
Hi BobC and All Contributors,
Thank you all for your perceptive contributions. BobC, you helped focus my attention and I agree with many of your keen and penetrating insights. You are spot on-target.
Jeffrey Gundlach has certainly prospered from…
Hi Guys,
I posted the specific "And the Band. Played Waltzing Matilda" link because of the poignant WW I photos that accompanied the song. They are terrific; I'm not especially impressed with the singing.
Here is a Link to a Liam Clancy version …
Hi Mark,
The ANZAK Memorial honors both the Australians and the New Zealanders who gave all at Gallipoli in World War I. It was a tragic decsion to land there with a terrific loss of life, both human and animal.
The song "And the Band Played Wa…
Hi Guys,
Indeed "Best" is a relative and elusive term. It depends.
It depends on the comparison standard; in this instance a simplistic 60/40 equity/bond mix with only 2 holdings. More importantly, it depends on the selected timeframe.
I did a q…
Hi Guys,
Given his painful results over the past few years, John Hussman is an easy target to condemn. Indeed his investment outlook and outcomes have been errant and dismal, respectively. He now looks like the Wall Street gunner who can’t shoot …
Hi Davidrmoran,
Thank you for your reply. I originally thought that you indeed dropped a “not” in your opening statement.
Apparently that was not the case, and you provided 3 references that purportedly support your memory of their writings. As …
Hi Catch,
Thank you for your submittal.
Diversification is a risk mitigation and not a risk elimination tool. No risk translates to very meager rewards beyond inflation rates.
It is a nearly impossible chore to identify an equity or equity equiv…
Hi Davidrmoran,
I too am not now a financial advisor client. I did use one in the early 1960s until I realized he had more incentives to churn my portfolio rather than increasing its value.
I recognize my personal experience is not universal, and…
Hi David,
The champion by a wide margin is the famous Berkshire- Hathaway series.
Here is a Link that provides access to many of them:
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
You have to go a long way to beat the Buffett-Munger tea…
