Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
The article failed to emphasize several essential factors and concepts that are the true drivers at controlling portfolio risk: global market diversification and cost minimization.
What was said was somewhat important at the margins; what…
Hi Ted,
Thank you for the excellent reference. The video presentation is superb.
This summary presentation of the academic investment material is professionally done and is outstanding. The invited video guests and their opinions represent the t…
Hi Guys,
Many of you did an incredibly perceptive job at dissecting and explaining the intricacies of the Affordable Care Act ( ACA, Obamacare). Kudos to all participants.
I initially chose to stay away from this often heated, and expected contro…
Hi Guys,
The central theme of the referenced article emphasizes a false choice. When assembling a portfolio, it is never, or more appropriately never should be, a toggle switch either/or singular decision.
Most folks accept that diversification i…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for responding to my post.
I really hope I motivated you to think about the general and specific market advice that Munger cobbled together in his outstanding lecture. That lecture might just be the very best that I’ve ever rea…
Hi Guys,
Many investors find it nearly impossible to do nothing when exposed to wild volatility swings in the marketplace. They lack the historical perspective that volatility is a market norm, not an exception.
Participating in a website devoted…
Hi Guys,
Not being a daily market observer, I don't have a feel for consolidation.
But I do have a statistical feeling for how the equity market will end this year. I use the S&P 500 as an equity market proxy because of its readily accessible…
Hi Guys,
This is not an easy problem. Simply getting a formal education is not sufficient. Given our dynamic economy, one must get the right education to match an ever changing marketplace need. Compounding that difficulty is the nonlinear natur…
Hi msf,
I know that you recognized that my defensive rant against the MFO subgroup that I called the quibble group was not directed at you. That group wants to enter a gun fight with a knife; they choose to limit their tool kit. I propose to ente…
Hi Guys,
It always puzzles me why a small group of MFO members take issue with my postings that advocate a more complete set of math tools to aid the investment decision making process. Why?
The group quibbles over non sequitur elements and rambl…
Hi Guys,
No, I have never succumbed to the investment advice of either well intentioned tipsters who I consider are just vested interest promoters or are outright charlatans. But my Dad did, and that was a lasting learning experience.
In the mid-…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Thank you for your nice and necessary submittals. We learn most from a diversity of opinions that are hard data based.
Economics is not anywhere near a closed science. Controversy rules. Yes, Paul Krugman is controversial, but s…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Thank you for the many references. However, I am a bit disappointed since the bulk of them linked to Paul Krugman's interpretation of Keynesian government intervention economics.
I was mostly disappointed because the references di…
Hi Catch,
As attractive as it might seem, a real (after inflation is subtracted from the number) 1% US real GDP growth rate is simply not enough.
It's barely sufficient to maintain our current standard of living given that our population growth ra…
Hi Guys,
Rather a harsh judgment that Index investors, many of whom are institutional agencies, are dummies. There's some relief given the assessment could have escalated from dummies to idiots.
I admire and cherish the rugged investor who is so …
Hi Guys,
I recognized that house assets were not included in the article scenarios.
The fact that the numbers I quoted did so just exasperated the gap between what was referenced in the piece and the realities of the median US retiree nest-egg. Su…
Hi Guys,
A one million dollar nest-egg is an unrealized dream for most retirees.
The median retiree nest-egg is shockingly small when contrasted against that illustration number. Different estimates locate a retiree's pot of gold at 20% to 35% of…
Hi Guys,
I'm frequently puzzled by these 10-year projections. This one is no exception.
The chart shows the prediction that foreign equities will outdistance US equity real returns by a large margin. I suppose the expectation is that the foreign…
Hi Guys,
In selecting her aggressive retirement portfolio, Benz wisely chose 7 funds that all had positive Alphas for the past 5 years. Now comes the acid test. Will these funds retain their positive Alphas for the next 5years?
Who knows? Histo…
Hi John Chisum,
Thank you for the PIMCO generated reference. The author makes some very valid points why an investor might select an actively managed Bond fund.
I recently examined a Vanguard generated paper that purportedly demonstrated the almo…
Hi rjb112,
I rarely, if ever, post on Bond and fixed income issues because I consider myself rather naïve on these matters. I plead an embarrassing level of ignorance. Many MFO members are far better informed on this subject than I am, so I sugge…
Hi Guys,
I couldn’t agree more. Whether its gambling, stock speculation, or long-term investing, its always a necessary policy to know the odds and the likely payoff matrix.
That’s an easy assignment when tossing a pair of fair dice. All that is…
Hi Scott,
Sorry that I was too vague on what I meant by "weighting functions".
I now know that the CNN Indicator has 7 parameters that contribute to the total fear/greed score. But how many maximum points of the 100 total are assigned to each par…
Hi Scott,
Prior to your originating post, I had never even heard of CNN’s Fear/Greed Indicator. Although I subsequently learned something about it, I am still uncomfortable in assessing its merits and shortcomings.
Initially, I wrongly contrasted…
Hi Guys,
Indeed the referenced chart is a nice way to summarize the business cycle. Kudos to Fidelity for generating it and to Barry Ritholtz for presenting it.
But how do we investors exploit this knowledge? S&P’s Sam Stovall had an answer:…
Hi Mark.
Thank you for the precise Japanese “Nail” quote. I’m sure you realize that I was just paraphrasing this favorite Japanese saying since my original post purposely did not isolate it with quotation marks.
My primary purpose in introducing …
Hi Guys’
Since these discussions have taken a serious turn towards using P/E Ratio formulations as a prediction tool, I thought a repost of a Vanguard study might just be in order.
The Vanguard study is titled “ Forecasting Stock Returns: What Sig…
Hi Guys,
Recently, a bunch of MFOers have posted negative assessments of financial writers and their current crop of articles. You fellows are tough consumers of financial advice. It’s perfectly legitimate to have high standards and high expectat…
Hi Guys,
The markets continue to frustrate most investors, professionals and amateurs alike.
I’m not familiar with the CNN Fear and Greed Index construction. I suppose it’s yet another example of an investor sentiment indicator. I am familiar wit…
Hi AKAFlack,
It is good to hear from you. Thank you for your contribution. It is simply terrific. It is never too late since it always adds a fresh and meaningful perspective to any MFO panel discussion. Your posts are both clear and concise. T…
Hi PopTart,
You need not apologize or agonize over any of your earlier investment decisions. I believe you made all the right choices. The fact that you suffered from some totally unpredictable markets is unfortunate, but the discouraging outcome…
Hi Guys,
The subject question provoked a pretty fair response from the active MFO membership. The replies were a little surprising by their uniformity. A grand summary is that No Regrets was the constant reflection.
We appear to all agree with t…
Hi Guys,
I bought my first stock in the mid-1950s. It was Chock Full O’Nuts coffee shops for reasons that Peter Lynch later popularized. I was an engineering student in New York City at the time, and whenever I stopped into one of their outlets, …
Hi Tampabay,
Thank you for reading my posts. I’m pleased that you are so happy with your current portfolio positions.
I too am very much dedicated to portfolio cost control. Together, we’re in Bogle’s camp in that regard; costs not only matter, …
Hi Tampabay,
Sorry to learn that your situation is such that you have severely constrained options relative to active/passive fund decision-making and changes.
Unless you are an especially adroit mutual fund manager screener, the price that you a…
Hi Guys,
Active mutual fund management is certainly not dead, and will never die.
Why? Active managers are experiencing some tough years, investors are abandoning them in droves, and academic/industry research paints a dismal picture. The simple…
Hi Guys,
Scott is spot on-target. Howard Marks is a legendary investor who has specialized on distressed products. He has been hugely successful as acknowledged by the likes of Warren Buffett.
He writes with great clarity. I consider his “The M…
Hi JohnChisum,
Thank you for the referenced Bloomberg article.
I am not quite as sanguine about the improving character of the so-called dumb money investors as the article posits.
Yes, there is a swing in the positive learning direction, but it …
Hi Guys,
Everyone who knows anything about how a military organization works knows that although the senior officer is in total change, the unit only functions effectively when it has a seasoned sergeant directing the foot soldiers.
In a household…
Hi Jlev,
Thanks for your comments.
Perhaps my remarks did not properly represent the main purpose of my posting. Although model linearity was not the primary motivation of my note, it was definitely more than a quibble. In most projection applic…
