Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
I totally agree with Kaspa that the charts on this exchange are “Pretty charts too!”.
At issue is if these “pretty charts” can be functional and profitable money making charts too. In this regard, the evidence is not clear. That depends…
Hi Guys,
Our recent MFO discussions that center more on the originality of the market commentary and observations tend to detract from the main themes of the subject works. That’s a wasteful distraction.
Original thinking on any subject is rare. …
Hi Guys,
The referenced Kent Thune article, “10 Ways to Time the Market with Mutual Funds”, is a total disaster. It simply does not deliver on its promises in the title.
The author uses a very loose and broad definition of “market timing”. His o…
Hi Charles and Guys,
When you questioned the appropriateness of calling the investment world’s regression-to-the-mean observed phenomena a law, it did prompt me to do some deeper thinking on the matter. Well, that puts us into some dangerous water…
Hi Charles,
Thank you for reading my post.
In brief exchanges such as yours, it is sometimes a challenge to interpret your intentions. Were you simply pulling my leg or were you asking serious questions? I’ll assume the serious purpose.
A rever…
Hi Guys,
The referenced article is indeed excellent. However, it really contains no surprising information. It just reinforces a wide body of earlier research findings that grow more compelling with each year’s additional data.
Mutual fund perfo…
Hi Hank,
Sorry for my omission. Perhaps I could blame it on the aging process, but the probable cause was my haste to respond to your post. Indeed, I did fail to address your initial question.
My investment philosophy does not “ rule out use of …
Hi Hank,
I too often “… believe there's good arguments on both sides. I'm not smart enough to say who's right.”
Apparently my postings sometimes don’t fully reflect my uncertainties on many investment issues. Investment issues remain unsettled de…
Hi Guys,
Overall, I very much like the analyses and interpretations produced by Professor Craig Israelsen. I recently referenced his website on this Board. He does a splendid job with his portfolio diversification policy.
On a rare occasion, Isr…
Hi Guys,
If you folks keep asking about the merits of various technical trading schemes, I fear I’ll displace Ted as MFO’s resident curmudgeon. No, that’ll never happen, but I suppose there is ample room for multiple curmudgeons on this Board.
I’…
Hi Ted,
Thank you for posting this alert on yet another Charles Ellis short research paper extolling the virtues of Index investing.
You asked “If Haystackers (Indexers) are so right, why do they spend so much time trying to prove it.”
Part of an…
Hi Jlev,
Your question about student loan default correlations to For-profit and Nonprofit institutions prompted me to do a quick web search since I am a total neophyte in this arena. This is a hot topic and there are tons of articles, and even a …
Hi Guys,
“Market timing is unproven.”
That quote was extracted from the FAQ section of The Decision Moose website. It is an accurate summary statement that reflects the controversy between academics and practitioners of that discipline.
I have n…
Hi Ted,
The fund that you mentioned (SHRAX) likely never made it to my candidates list way back in the early 1990s. I avoided front-end loaded mutual funds like the plaque that they are. I was reading John Bogle’s “Common Sense on Mutual Funds” i…
Hi Bitzer,
Thank you for reading my post and for your question.
I’m sure you realize that, as a matter of personal policy, I resist divulging my specific fund positions. I believe it can do more harm than good because we all have different time h…
Hi STB65,
Good stuff! I especially liked your revision to Gresham's Law. There is indeed much drivel generated by various elements of the investment community.
But there are also some infrequent gems. It does take a little unpleasant digging to…
Hi Charles,
Although I'm much older than Jason Zweig and a tad older than Charles Ellis, I did learn much from their information loaded works and their fine writing styles. We all studied at Columbia University although the subject matter couldn't…
Hi Charles,
Congratulations! You are asking the right questions before making a portfolio adjustment decision. Do the candidate funds really provide diversification benefits? If so, how much? What are the opportunity costs? A few numbers might…
Hi Guys,
I want to start by thanking Ted for the Callan Periodic Table update. The investment Periodic Tables have been a staple at MFO and at FundAlarm for years. The Callan version is the most famous and most widely quoted.
However, a legion o…
Hi Guys,
I want to acknowledge and thank those MFO members who took a timeout to read and fairly reply to my “Crimes Against Logic” post. More importantly, I want to acknowledge but not necessarily thank those who quickly scanned and panned my Cri…
Hi Ted,
I never doubted that my post would strike a few nerves. So I anticipated a reaction that your picture vividly illustrates. Too too bad. Much of the venom is directed at my Hi Guys introduction and my choice of wording.
Just another day …
Hi Again Junkster,
Thanks for taking time to so courteously reply.
I always have a well defined purpose when I submit to any forum, and especially when that forum is MFO. In part, that’s because of the high respect I have for MFO members and thei…
Hi Junkster,
I suspect you are either being too generous or too naïve in our assessment of individual investor performance.. Given your past postings I gage the odds of you being too naïve as nearly zero, so I guess you are being overly liberal i…
Hi Guys,
This exchange really revolves around Dalbar’s consistent findings that the “Average Investor” almost universally underperforms the mutual funds that he buys by a huge number. Often this mythical “Average Investor” captures only between 2…
Hi Guys,
This MarketWatch referenced article should really not shock anyone.
It is simply another report on the very consistent Dalbar studies, but with an extended comparative array of investment categories. Typically, the Dalbar individual inve…
Hi Guys,
I am a Jonathan Clements fan. I like both his low-keyed writing style and his equally low-keyed, noninvasive financial wisdom. He has long advocated for a long-term investing program.
It’s intriguing how most business writers favor a sh…
Hi Catch,
Thank you for your interest and unexpected reply.
Not unexpected in terms of a direct topic exchange, but unexpected by the focus change that your post took. Great stuff. I had not thought whatsoever of what beneficial impact a risk un…
Hi Tony,
Thank you for taking time to read and respond to my post. Unfortunately, I could not successfully access the Link that you provided.
But I suspect that it might be the same reference that MFOer Ted linked in his post titled “Do Active Fu…
Hi mrdarcey,
Thanks for your rapid reply. Indeed my question was both honest and sincere. Exchanges on MFO are serious stuff, well almost always so.
Also, indeed your reference to Thug Notes is seriously fun stuff. I was totally unaware of its…
Hi Mrdarcy,
Thank you for your thoughtful and generous reply.
Whenever I add to the MFO Discussion Board, I do so with some definite goal in mind. I typically do not contribute innocuous atta-boys. Since I almost always have a target purpose, I …
Hi Mrdarcy,
No convincing is necessary.
On many past postings I documented that my current portfolio is divided about equally between passive and active funds. Recently, I decided to shift more towards a passive mix without abandoning active man…
Hi Guys,
I’m immediately just a little leery when an author tosses out an extremely high, unrealistic percentage claim without justification. Additionally, he highlights that number in the title of the article. What about you guys? Does it strike…
Hi Guys,
Sorry for the confusion, but this is my fourth workaround attempt to post. My patience is running thin.
As you know, I am skeptical of all forecasts. My overarching feeling is that forecasting is at best educated guesstimates with a low…
Hi Jungster,
Thanks for joining the commentary.
I’m not sure if this will disappoint you, but I’m not a “walking encyclopedia of stock market platitudes”. But I do try to integrate appropriate ones into my MFO postings.
Since I usually document …
Hi Guys,
Again, my abridged response to the bond questions follow.
My bond commentary was simply grounded in historical data considerations, no special insights. Historically, there is a bond returns pecking order: short term government bonds gen…
Hi Guys,
Sorry for the delay, but I've been captured in some sort of continuous loop when trying to reply on this subject. I can only post a short message.
Thanks for your enthusiastic interest in my post.
Here is the Link to the Vanguard study …
Hi BobC,
Great stuff! Thank you for joining the discussion. I really liked your general battle plan to protect against a possible market downturn. It’s a plan that is designed to sacrifice a little upside potential to dampen significant downside…
Hi Guys,
I’m in davidrmoran’s and Charles’ corner on this issue.
Yes, the current P/E ratio and/or the CAPE ratio are currently a tad (that’s a scientific measure) on the high side relative to long term averages. But these signals, which accordin…
Hi Guys,
I want to thank you all for your thought provoking and pithy replies. Yes John Chisum, I did intend to say pithy. Sorry about my defective spelling. I hope that’s not an early signal of defective investment thinking.
Scott, I have made…
