Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Old Joe and rjb112,
Thank you guys for your pity observations.
It doesn’t get too much older then this, but Publilius Syrus in the 1st century BC said: “It is a bad plan that admits of no modifications”. That ancient wisdom applies today and ev…
Hi Kaspa,
I really like Rick Ferri, both as a financial advisor and as an author. I own several of his easy to read books and his advice makes investment decision making easier. I’m frequently on the same investment page as he is. Occasionally w…
Hi rjb112,
Definitions matter every bit as much as costs matter when making investment decisions.
I appreciate that you are a careful researcher, so this observation is likely to be totally unnecessary. However, when consulting any financial ar…
Hi rjb112,
What works on Wall Street is not constant. That’s why the super quants who currently run the most successful Hedge funds are so secretive about their methods and must use the highest speed computers to find and to exploit the market ine…
Hi rjb112,
Yes indeed, a Small Cap Value mutual fund is a valuable holding within a portfolio. It adds robustness to the portfolio with its diversification attribute and its incremental excess returns (something like 2%) above large cap equity hol…
Hi Anna,
I believe all MFO participants make informed investment decisions that represent their special financial situation and their singular behavioral and emotional character.
You define yourself as a conservative investor. That’s fine. So am…
Hi Anna,
I am afflicted with a strange behavior whenever I talk with someone named Anna. I feel compelled to mentally sing the folk song from New York Girls that has the chorus: “To me a-weigh, you Santy, My dear Annie Oh, you New York gals, Can't…
Hi Junkster,
Retirement decisions are often among the most challenging and scary that an individual must address and ultimately make. Since everyone confronts it, I agree with your observation that many MFOers would benefit from more comprehensive…
Hi Professor David and MFOers,
With apologies to its author Elbert Hubbard, thank you for your Message to MFOers ( originally to Garcia). Your messages, in almost real time, of what’s what at the annual Morningstar Conference should permit us to t…
Hi Ted,
It appears that you have decided to continue the march, at least for now. That's good. Thank you.
Indeed you have been doing this form of research for years, and I have benefited from it since the early FundAlarm days. Compared to your …
Hi Guys,
First and most importantly, I like Brett Arends’ MarketWatch columns. He is well informed and mostly writes intelligent articles. But the referenced piece is not among his finest. It is arrogant, shortsighted, and pretentious. In compe…
Hi Jerry,
Thank you for joining the discussion.
Since each has been formulated with its own disparate weighting functions, I think of the Equal and Cap weighted S&P 500 Indices as entirely different animals. They are likely to react different…
Hi Ted,
Thank you for referencing the WSJ article by Brett Arends on “A Random Way to Get Rich”.
Although I subscribe to the Journal, I missed this article. I believe it provides important investment guidance for several reasons.
It emphasizes …
Hi AKAFlack,
It’s good to hear from you after such prolonged silence. I hope you are well and that your investments are performing well.
I don’t specifically recall the exchanges that you reference. Like you, I too can not easily access them.
B…
Hi Guys,
I came to praise Charles, not to criticize him. Apparently, not everyone agrees with my enthusiasm for his study. That’s okay since that’s one of the purposes of the MFO Discussion section. I was surprised by the vituperous emotional ou…
Hi Guys,
As you know, I’ve been recently campaigning on MFO to recognize that experts really often fail to forecast accurately.
One part of my skepticism is based on defining what factors integrate to establish the credentials for an “expert ratin…
Hi Old Joe, Hi Ted,
Thank you for replying.
Old Joe, thanks for directing my attention to the Barry Ritholtz viewgraph presentation. I would likely have missed it without your alert. I’m not surprised that Ritholtz and Josh Brown share similar m…
Hi Guys,
Just today I discovered an investment specific interview that addresses the Expert Opinion issues that I posted earlier.
Here is an additional Link that features Josh Brown (The Reformed Broker) who illustrates the likely overrating of ex…
Hi Cman,
Thank you for replying.
You are absolutely correct that I erroneously concluded that the Sharpe paper said “Nowhere does Sharpe argue that active fund managers must purchase only Index stocks.” He made no such assertion.
When I wrote th…
Hi Ted,
Thank you for the Schwab story.
I was not aware that he too is a heavyweight Index supporter for the general investing population.
He joins the ranks of Warren Buffett and a host of other famous market wizards on this growing list that re…
Hi Guys,
I too believe that the referenced article undervalues the likelihood of a market meltdown. How quickly we forget 2008.
I particularly disliked the article’s assertion that Bear markets are “relatively rare” events; it is especially at o…
Hi Crash,
I too find it difficult to consider a total portfolio makeover on a seasonal basis. I simply do not subscribe to the Stovall strategy that I reported. That's not me.
I am a long-term holder who only trades about twice a year: In late D…
Hi Crash,
I attended a Sam Stovall presentation at the 2014 Las Vegas MoneyShow that was partly focused on the market seasonality issue. In my earlier summary, I elected to not mention some statistical findings that he included in his material to …
Hi TSP Transfer,
Thank you for the heads-up on the Lockheed weather satellite. It will surely add to our weather data sets, and should incrementally contribute to more accurate and reliable forecasts. Unfortunately, it’s a long way off with a pla…
Hi Junkster,
Thank you for taking time to read and respond to my post. Thank you again for asking about my eye surgery outcome. The sequential eye surgery on both my eyes was successful. My world is a brighter place these days.
I certainly have…
Hi Jlev,
Congratulations on deciding to decide. You certainly do not suffer from analysis paralysis. That’s great.
From Shakespeare’s King Henry V, the “Once More unto the Breach” speech offers a useful one-line lesson: “Stiffen the sinews, summ…
Hi Cman,
Thank you for taking a timeout to read my post.
I am very familiar with the concept of Expect Value so I need not review it.
As a youth, I had the good fortune to attend a High School that emphasized science and mathematics. As part of …
Hi Ted,
Thank you for yet another article that addresses the forecasters ability to forecast. That is a topic that greatly interests me.
I never doubt that forecasters love to forecast. The challenge is to keep score on the accuracy of those for…
Hi Guys,
Hold it for a moment. From Simon and Garfunkel’s 59th Street Bridge song: “Slow down, you’re moving to fast”.
It’s not necessarily so. Gambling need not be a negative game, and investing is not always a positive game. Whereas that is t…
Hi Guys,
Hank, thank you so very much for the discovery and posting of this comprehensive essay. It is not simply a Sunday entertainment article; it is a worthwhile fun read any day of the week.
The author really dissects the gambling/investing i…
Hi Guys,
The little trick to easily reproduce the Ellis calculation is to perform the analysis using dollars and not percentages.
Any dollar amount will do. Let’s assume a 1000 dollar investment.
The active investor was rewarded with a 410 dolla…
Hi Guys,
I purposely avoided submitting on this topic because I anticipated it would be both a highly explosively and emotionally charged debate. I was on-target in that regard.
For the record, I have favored and continue to favor the proposed p…
Hi John Chisum,
The Steadman Funds likely top the list as the nastiest funds ever. That’s a hard distinction given the huge number of accessible bad mutual funds, both in conception and in execution. But Charles Steadman managed to secure that un…
Hi Guys,
The most likely answer to Ron’s question about the morphing of Marc Faber from Mr. Doom to Mr. Happy is never. He is committed to his own worldview and the present circumstances and data are nearly irrelevant.
In the financial community …
Hi Ron,
Yes indeed, every surgical procedure has a risk element. There are few 100% guarantees when doing much of anything.
I am very sorry to learn of your outcomes. One out of two plus procedures is a disappointment. You seem to have adjusted…
Hi cman,
Boy, you’re quick. Perhaps that’s why you missed some elements of my post that pre-answer your questions.
It is certainly true that I can not reference a study that quantifies the statistical impact that either Krugman or Friedman have o…
Hi cman,
Thank you for your brief commentary.
You asked if Krugman and/or Friedman had a market impact. You wondered if all these posting devolve into a passive/active debate.
I believe that both referenced journalists do influence investor deci…
Hi Guys,
Indeed there is a history between Old Joe and myself. But it is not my doing. It has been a one-way street. Old Joe attacks; I defend.
I post and on some occasions Old Joe is critical. Old Joe posts and I am never critical; I am consi…
Hi Charles,
Thank you for the heads-up on several levels.
I was not familiar with MFOer Investors' earlier reference. More importantly, I was not aware that the papers on SSRN are not fully peer reviewed. It appears that the submitted papers are…
