Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
This is a disturbing stat, but it really is not a major problem, especially when considering other Golden State issues.
The raw number seems impressive until it is contrasted against the state's population which exceeds 37 million folks a…
Hi Guys,
This post is very difficult for me. It demands a delicate balanced set of thoughts that just might be beyond my competency reach.
I really like Cman’s submittals. In general I agree with almost 100% of the informational content although…
Hi Guys,
I am pleased that Jonathan Clements has come home to the WSJ. I missed his commonsense columns that were much more than just investment advice. Welcome back Jonathan.
His reintroductory article to his WSJ audience clearly shows that he …
Hi mrdarcy,
I appreciate your extra effort to secure a copy of Professor Kaushik’s report.
I suspect you and I are in substantial agreement that study findings are always tightly coupled to its methodology. Details just don’t simply matter, they …
Hi mrdarcy,
Thank you so very much for alerting me to Radford University Professor Abhay Kaushik’s work. I was completely unaware of it.
Since Kaushik’s results appear to contradict others in the active-passive fund management debate, I am excite…
Hi rjb112,
As a general self-imposed MFO rule I abstain from making specific mutual fund recommendations. I do not consider myself well informed enough in that arena, especially when contrasted against other talented and wise MFO members. That’s …
Hi Dex,
I do have an embedded bond allocation. Sorry that I was not clear on that matter.
When suggesting the portfolio asset allocation, I divided the portfolio into only 2 groupings for simplicity. Instead of the usual stocks, bonds, cash dive…
Hi Dex,
I do not take umbrage with any of your comments, but I don’t agree with many of them.
I do concur that our worldviews are primarily formed from our life experiences. Where you “jump the shark” is assuming my generation had a nearly 100%…
Hi rjb112,
Wow, you’re a bulldog on fixed income issues and doubts. That’s meant as a compliment, an attaboy.
You pose a delicately balanced retiree scenario. Under the conditions that you postulated, the imaginary retiree is always on the cusp …
Hi Davidmoran,
You have conflated my postings with the one generated by MFOer Charles.
Please review the authors. I’m much more optimistic than Charles concerning the magnitudes of any market meltdowns. He might be on-target, but I believe his s…
Hi Dex,
I believe I fully appreciate the primary thrust of your personal questions.
Who is this MJG guy? Does he really know anything about which he writes? Is he fair and honest in his market viewpoints and analyses? Is he trustworthy?
The In…
Hi Guys,
I need to amend my original post. I am guilty of an overgeneralization.
In my original submittal I said: “……during these dark episodes since active mutual fund managers have not displayed any talent to really soften the blows.”
After su…
Hi rjb112,
Thank you for your discerning and kind commentary.
Indeed, the duration and magnitude of both Bull and Bear markets depend upon definitions. The simple plus or minus 20% rule is very common and is the one that I used in my post. In th…
Hi MarkM,
Thank you for your rapid response.
My overarching takeaway from your various replies is that you have discovered the magic elixir that permits a respectable estimate of market-wide FMV, at least one focused on longer-term projections. E…
Hi Guys, and especially rjb112,
I fully understand why MarkM is reluctant to divulge his personal proprietary Fair Market Valuation (FMV) model. Given the uncertainties of the input parameters and the modeling formulation challenges that are neede…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for your many honest and intelligent contributions. Your replies advanced the topic to a higher plateau with the challenges and the examples that you introduced.
I submitted the topic as a sort of fun diversion. In general, I…
Hi Guys,
Not withstanding Ecclesiastes 9:11, in some instances the race often does go to the swiftest. Timely decision making and committed execution are primary assets in the investment universe.
Over the last week nothing much has changed in th…
Hi Guys,
I am a long standing member of the DIY clan, sometimes successful, sometimes not so successful.
One lesson that I have learned is that an essential element for improving the odds for successful investing is keeping it as simple as possibl…
Hi Guys,
Wish and you shall receive.
There is no shortage of retirement planning tools and services; there are legions of them. They have been available for decades, and are getting better each and every day. The issue is not access to these fin…
Hi Guys,
I too am a Rick Ferri fan, and have been so for a long time.
I particularly like his use of Monte Carlo techniques and tools to support his positions and decision making. Monte Carlo is indeed a powerful decision making tool under uncert…
Hi David,
I regret that you are presently confronted with this delicate and sensitive investment issue. Indeed, with age, investment options vanish and emotions are high. We all are forced to address this issue at some point.
This problem is sur…
Hi Guys,
Harry Dent is extremely successful at promoting himself; he is far less successful at promoting wealth accumulation based on his often flawed forecasts.
Overall, Dent suffers from an abysmal forecasting record. He has a few random succes…
Hi Kaspa,
Thank you so very much for the excellent essay on Luck generated by Howard Marks a few years ago. It is thoroughly entertaining, personally revealing, and spot on-target. It is a keeper.
Marks humbly admits that luck was a major factor…
Hi Guys,
In general, I'm very satisfied with Morningstar's database and its presentations. I do not wish to pile-on, but their operation does slip on occasion.
Their upside and downside capture ratios are one such occasion. The concept is excell…
Hi Gary,
Simplification is usually beneficial, but over-simplification can be financially hazardous. I believe an investor needs to know as much as possible when assessing financial matters. Constant learning is essential to improve investing out…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for your thoughtful and thought provoking reply. I certainly welcome it.
Indeed it is a challenging and perhaps foolish chore to catch a falling knife. It is the ultimate loser’s game to step in-front of a runaway train anticip…
Hi Hank, Hi Catch22,
Thank you for agreeing with my “general rule”. It is surely not an original thought, and not many would challenge it. When making that statement, I cast no aspersions about the quality or well intentions of the many fine MFO …
Hi Willmatt72,
Wow! You are presently in a superb position still 15 years away from retirement.
Given the magnitude of your current portfolio, its asset allocation distribution, and your planned savings/contributions, that portfolio will grow wit…
Hi Guys,
David Swensen is a hero among the elite institutional class of investors. His record is outstanding.
I read his “Unconventional Success” book in 2005. In its introduction, Swensen admits that he made a major revision to the book’s plann…
Hi Guys,
Thank you Ted for keeping the Luck discussion alive. It is a fascinating topic that does have a first-order influence and impact on investing outcomes.
I mostly agree with c-man’s assertion that “We make our own luck with our skills in t…
Hi rjb112,
Thank you for the kind words and your trust in asking help from me. I am hesitant that I can profitably satisfy your request..
I struggle with giving specific investment advice. Please know that I am an amateur in the investment jungl…
Hi rjb112,
Thank you for your question. When I first read the Graham quote, I too was greatly surprised. I was negligent in not providing a source reference in my original posting; sorry about that.
I’m a fan of Burton Malkiel and have collected …
Hi Vert,
Thank you for investing your valuable time to respond to my post. Alternate viewpoints are always welcomed, encouraged, and respected. It’s how a vibrant marketplace works its price discovery magic.
I have never met either Warren Buffet…
Hi Gindle,
Since future returns are uncertain, it is almost a certainty that every investor has suffered the pains coupled to wealth erosion from bad investment decisions. You are definitely not alone in this common experience.
Regret is a ubiqui…
Hi Ted,
Thank you for this updated reference to one of Carl Richards most famous napkin sketches. Nothing is more effective at making an important point than a simple drawing. Richards is great at this task.
Here is a Link to a composite of man…
Hi Guys,
Financial writer Chuck Jaffe offers a partial answer here.
I say only partially right because his article merely addresses the tip of the iceberg in terms of what an active investor copes with when challenged by the serious headwinds he e…
Hi Guys,
The Portfolio Visualizer website truly offers opportunity. Opportunity to learn.
There are so many potential and practical uses for this fine website that it is hard to characterize its full utility and scope in a few words. So I’ll set…
Hi Guys,
Allow me a quick update. I just accessed the Portfolio Visualizer version of a Monte Carlo simulator. It has some attractive features and is extremely fast. I'm sure I will explore its full capability when I have more time.
The code pe…
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Based on your many questions directed to me, I conclude that you misinterpret my rather generic and innocuous response to Mike’s advisor quagmire. The questions do warrant a reply since they reflect some confusion ove…
