Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Mike,
Plainly and simply put, an internet personal advisor is a bad idea.
I am pleased that the MFO population en masse did not volunteer for this nearly Mission Impossible task. Once again, they demonstrated the wisdom of the crowd by abstain…
Reply to @AndyJ:
Hi AndyJ,
Thank you for reading and replying to my post.
I do believe that most MFO participants are somewhat immune to the attraction of the Star ratings. But not all are, and most of the general pubic blindly fall under its sp…
Hi Guys,
Morningstar Star ratings should never be used as the sole criteria for mutual fund selection.
Investing is not that simple or easy. Even if the Stars are incorporated into a multi-dimensional criteria set, it should never be awarded a to…
Dear Ted,
Your post is further evidence that deep down you are really a softy and a sweetheart!
Of course, since this is an investing website, the post is subject to alternate interpretations. Investing is never easy; even on Valentines Day decis…
Hi Guys,
Professor Snowball is spot on-target with respect to the sensitivity of Active Share percentages to a selected benchmark. It makes a difference, sometimes a huge enough difference to compromise its predictive power for excess returns (Alp…
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
Thank you for your cogent comments.
I completely agree that averages can be misleading, especially when taken out of context and/or when not augmented with other statistical inputs like timeframe, population surveyed, an…
Hi Guys,
Thanks to everyone for their enthusiastic and friendly participation; all solid stuff.
From an historic perspective, MFOer Guy’s Sequoia Fund is a wise choice for most any portfolio. It had a storied record when guided by the legendary B…
Reply to @Guy:
Hi Guy,
Thank you for reading and replying to my post.
I honestly feel that I might be the least informed MFO member, who posts semi-regularly, to respond to your sensible question. Almost any frequent MFO contributor could constr…
Hi Mark,
You asked about how John Bogle arrived at his assertion that investors leave approximately 80 % of achievable rewards on the table.
The power of compounding is the simple answer. Saint John arrived at his startling number from his favori…
Hi Professor,
MFO has aggressively explored mutual fund active share issues over several years.
To refresh your memory, I posted on this topic in November, 2012. The submittal drew excellent divergent viewpoints from a number of MFO members. I e…
Hi tp2006,
Welcome to the club.
Sorry for my late reply, but I am not an active daily participant any longer. It’s not that the quality and sagacity of the investment exchanges have deteriorated; in reality the reverse is true. It is simply that…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for your outstanding and sometimes provocative contributions to this exchange.
Without a doubt, I benefited from your viewpoints on the Larry Summers’ interview, but many times more from your conjectures and projections on h…
Reply to @bee:
Hi Bee,
You surely contributed an excellent and useful post.
I am very pleased to read your endorsements of the various Monte Carlo simulation products. I have been a long advocate for these workhorse financial tools, and have be…
Hi NumbersGal,
It is good to hear from an investor who is specifically dedicated to financial numbers. The markets are awash with a tsunami of statistical data sets. I am not surprised by your question or interest. It is both probing and challen…
Hi Guys,
A heavy fog blanketed my small part of the world, wetted everything, and caused me to cancel my Sunday morning tennis. Having spare time, I belatedly decided to join the wisdom (or foolishness) of the crowd on this topic. It certainly se…
Hi Guys,
In my haste to post I omitted to document what I feel is the single most important ingredient to good investing process=full portfolio diversification.
Returns volatility is a killer in terms of “staying the course”. It is the primary ca…
Hi Guys,
Let me start with a disclaimer. I breezed through the referenced article since most of it is “old” stuff and commonly accepted market wisdom. So I do not claim that my posting is a definitive or complete review of the paper.
Of course, …
Hi Ted,
Thanks for reminding us of the January Effect. It is commonly accepted market wisdom that as January equities go, so goes the equity market for the remainder of the year. A positive January foretells above average annual equity rewards; a…
Reply to @Junkster:
Hi Junkster, Hi Mark,
Thank you for your informed additions to this topic. I appreciate your enthusiastic and fair participation.
Although we differ on a few points, overall we share many common perspectives. Investing dec…
Hi Hank, Hi mrdarcey,
You do me great honor by reading and replying to my post. Thank you for your attention.
You are very much aware from my torrent of earlier submittals that I am a persistent warrior with respect to the use of statistics and …
Reply to @BobC:
Hi BobC,
Agreed.
Thank you for expanding the discussion in a much needed direction. Your fair and insightful commentary certainly added needed depth to my submittal.
Best Wishes and Happy New Year.
Reply to @MarkM:
Hi MarkM,
Thank you so much for the generous and kind words. Your comments exceed both my capabilities and my contributions.
Best Wishes and Happy New Year.
Hi Guys,
Rather than the basic finding from this research project, which is not particularly a shocking or recent observation, I am more concerned with the fundamental cause for this shortfall without falling too deeply into the weeds.
My conclusi…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
Indeed, Nobel prize recipient Paul Samuelson invested with Warren Buffett early in his hugely successful, multi-faceted career. He recognized a shrewd and perhaps unique financial wizard and wisely joined his ranks …
Hi Mark,
Thank you so very much for posting the Morningstar Article by Samuel Lee.
The article clearly demonstrates the market wisdom that when prices are extremely low, the likelihood of oversized returns is very high.
The article is basically a…
Reply to @Maurice:
Hi Maurice,
Thank you for your sincere best wishes and your poignant story. It is well worth the telling and the retelling. The story emphasizes the ephemeral nature of life. I suspect that the older we get, the more we real…
Reply to @Ted:
Hi Ted,
I certainly agree, but that’s not the end of the story.
Money is surely needed up to a comfortable life style threshold. Beyond that tipping point, it begins to loss its lure and attractiveness. Its desirability is very …
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
You posed an interesting question: How have the Sell in May crowd performed this unusually fine year?
It certainly appears that we’ll enjoy an equity return this year in the 30% range. Going back to 1928, that healthy a…
Hi Guys,
There has been much MFO hot ink spilled over Paul Merriman’s purportedly controversial proposal for an all equity diversified portfolio during the accumulation phase prior to retirement.
This is not an entirely new idea or strategy. It h…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
Thank you for the alert that introduced the free educational courses currently planned and available to the general public. The list is impressive and contains many subjects that interest me.
However, I doubt if I…
Hi Investor,
I’m pleased by your message. Our exchanges have been in a hiatus for far too long.
I’m not surprised that you are adding Monte Carlo analyses methods to your toolkit. Like me, I suspect you strive for constant learning, especially i…
Hi Guys,
Another happy coincidence of postings. Only several days ago I posted on John Templeton’s 16 Rules for Investment Success. There is an amazingly tight correlation between Templeton’s affirmative rules and the 5 cautionary lessons learned …
Hi Vert,
Nice post. I particularly liked your closing statement: “The inherent uncertainty of the future cannot be escaped.” I completely agree; I hope my postings give proper recognition of that inescapable conclusion. Monte Carlo analyses shin…
Reply to @Junkster:
Hi Junkster,
Thank you for taking time to read and reply to my post. I appreciate both your interest and your thoughts on the matter. You surely present a welcomed different prospective.
Executing a successful investment pr…
Hi Guys,
You all know that I am a huge fan of Monte Carlo simulations for retirement planning purposes. I have considerable practical experience in this realm. As my retirement date approached such tools did not commonly exist, so I programmed my…
Hi Guys,
Sorry for this late additional commentary. Since the originating postings highlighted the risk aspects of the investment process, my initial contribution also focused on that side of the investment equation.
When responding I solely emph…
Hi Charles, Hi Davidrmoran
Your recent exchanges serve as terrific examples of the difficulties embodied in an individuals risk definition and risk measurement standard. It is surely a multifaceted issue that is heavily influenced by personal cons…
Hi Guys,
Thank you Ted for the comforting reference. Since it touts very inactive investing and a rejection of the daily business news interpretation chaos, it reinforces a conformation bias that I favor in that arena. Much of what is reported an…
Hi Guys,
Indeed, the equity markets have been double-digit generous to us so far this year. Given the historical December record boosted with the Santa Claus rally, I anticipate that these overly generous rewards will be slightly enhanced at year’…
