Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Catch,
Very funny. Thank you.
I do have a problem with it. From an atomic physics perspective it makes sense. That's troublesome to say the least; something must be wrong.
Best Wishes.
Hi Mark,
Thank you for the very fine article that supports the case for mostly passive Index investing.
But I am puzzled by the dateline on the article; it’s over 5 years old. We’ve experienced a major market disruption, and significant world ev…
Hi Guys,
I probably get less exercised over gasoline prices these days than most folks. I vividly remember the cost of filling a tank back in the late 1950s, like 35 cents per gallon.
Does that seem cheap? Not really if inflation is factored int…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi OJ,
Thank you.
We share many similar traits and experiences. I really do believe that we are on the same page far more often than either you or I realize.
Historically, there has always been risk in carting stuff from one…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for your contributions to this topic.
Yes, the conventional financial wisdom is that as retirement approaches, a portfolio’s asset allocation must drift towards a stronger fixed income weighting. The mixed asset date-targeted m…
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
Good to hear from you again. I always look forward to your informed postings.
Yes, I elected to do a highly simplified calculation. It was necessary to capture the essential tradeoffs between the two options bei…
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
Indeed, the anticipated returns profile influences final results and the IRA/Roth decision.
As I mentioned in my initial post, projected returns as well as the timeframe under consideration and the tax structure obligati…
Reply to @GregFromBoston:
Hi Greg,
Thank you for your informative Link that discusses the Journatic business model.
I’m not in anyway surprised by the media’s default option of securing “outsourcing” help. Costs always matter
It is yet another …
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
Thank you for contributing to this discussion.
But I’m just a little confused. Actually, that’s an improvement given that I am frequently very confused. I am puzzled by the apparent ease by which I resolved your propos…
Reply to @STB65:
Hi STB65,
Perhaps inadvertently, perhaps intentionally, you are making a pervasive case for passive investing. Many investors, fewer MFO members, share your frustrations with active mutual fund management. In terms of performan…
Reply to @Maurice:
Hi Maurice,
Really good stuff. In general, I concur with your assessment, but I especially liked your baseball analogy. I love stories that serve to illustrate a primary theme; you hit a home run.
Fortunately, in the constr…
Reply to @GregFromBoston:
Hi Greg,
Thank you for your thoughtful and thought-provoking contribution. Based on our many past interactions I would expect nothing less. I was not disappointed.
I do prepare my MFO postings using Microsoft’s Word.
…
Hi Heather,
It’s sad that the MFO respondents to your simple question did not satisfy your high aspirations.
You presented a 9 element candidate portfolio and simply asked “what do you all think”? Your solicitation collected over 800 views and nu…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you for your candid reply. I always benefit from your carefully formulated market insights and preferences. Often your commentaries are valuable investment lessons even if not immediately applicable because of a…
Hi ccrider,
Thank you for the reference to the recent WealthTrack contribution to the active-passive investment management debate. The WealthTrack addition will certainly not end that debate, but it does offer a few interesting perspectives, espec…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you for taking time away from your professional pursuits to reply.
My assertion that the educational system is slowly changing to incorporate more math options is based solely on anecdotal personal evidence.
I c…
Reply to @VintageFreak:
Hi VintageFreak,
Thank you for your fantastically precise and concise post. I completely concur with your assessment, but could never express it in such a clear and cogent manner. Good work.
Peter Schiff has been a commi…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
We’re precisely on the same page with respect to individual investor philosophies, policies, strategies, and tactics. Each should and will follow his own North Star. And we wish him luck and success on his journey.
I…
Hi AKAFlack,
I presume you are the same poster who earlier called himself Flack. If so, I hope the 200-day moving average technique that you deploy, and also teach your students, is still satisfying your investment aspirations.
I honestly mean th…
Hi Ted,
A loud, loud WELCOME back.
I'm exhausted doing my own poorly executed web searches. You're so much better at that task. I missed them and hope that you will contribute once again.
Thank you for your past work and thank you in anticipati…
Hi Mark,
Thank you for your question. It allows me to expand on the statistic.
The salient point that I was attempting to highlight with the quoted 70 % number was that in a simplistic model of only two fundamental cohorts, individual retail inve…
Hi Bee,
Congratulations and thank you for your unexpected discovery of Warren Buffett’s 1977 Fortune magazine article. Congratulations for such a marvelous find. Thank you for providing access to MFO participants.
This overarching market analys…
Reply to @tschucha:
Hi tschucha,
Thank you for the kind words, but an especial thank you for your affirmative action in response to my post. My most prized gift is you joining the MFO family.
I suspect that Professor Snowball equally appreciate…
Reply to @ron:
Hi Ron,
I do not directly do currency exchanges, although I do own international mutual funds that hedge the dollar. Also I do not own pure Gold funds, although I do have funds who own gold and other hard assets. So I am definite…
Hi Bee.
Thank you for the four disparate references to correlation coefficient perspectives.
Indeed, candidate investment option correlations are crucial when assembling a portfolio with reduce volatility (standard deviation). You are doing a wo…
Hi Guys,
Mauboussin loves to talk about the skill/luck tradeoffs. Here is a Link to a video by him titled " Untangling Skill and Luck in Business":
Enjoy.
Hi Guys,
The decision with respect to either a Roth IRA or a Traditional IRA or a conversion is not simple; it is not a no-brainer. Like most investment choices and options, a final decision depends.
The Roth IRA decision is not easy since it is …
Hi Pangolin,
First and foremost, I am not a financial consultant or advisor. So I don’t normally reply to questions that you raised. Also, to produce a more focused plan, an advisor would need considerably more information about the health and sp…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
Thank you so very much for your extensive reply. It is thoughtful, seriously researched, and addressed many of the issues that both MFO participant Investor and I independently raised.
There is no need to apologize…
Hi Guys,
The Hindenburg Omen is a misguided use of the scientific method of inductive reasoning coupled with experimental data. It is silly science; it is an abuse of real science.
Unfortunately, there are a small band of professional technicians…
Hi Nath,
From your question, I assume you are investigating the put/call options market as a strategy to enhance returns and not as a risk mitigation hedge.
Don’t do it unless you seek risky adventures, have a rock solid risk tolerance, or are a p…
Reply to @Joe:
Hi Joe,
Thank you for reading my post, and a hardy hoorah for using the referenced website to compute a negative fixed income product pair correlation correlation for diversification purposes.
The correlation coefficient calculato…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for taking time to read and reply to my post.
After rereading my posting a few days after its submittal, I concur with those of you who were perplexed by its overemphasis on the comparison between the US abortion rate and th…
Reply to @Skeeter:
Hi Skeeter,
Thank you for contributing your personal forecast for the near-term equity markets. It is logically, persuasively and cogently stated. It is based on current and historical economic and political watershed markers…
Hi Investor,
Thank you for posting this statistical education article. All investors need some familiarity with statistical terminology to better interpret financial data and charts, both their advantages and shortcomings.
Most MFO participants f…
Hi John,
Thank you for the excellent reference.
I am a big fan of John Dessauer, the man and his superior international insights. He is one smart guy.
He usually attends the Las Vegas Money Show but was absent this year. I missed his lecture, s…
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
Indeed Bell shaped distributions are observed for mutual fund participants. The referenced ICI document in Chapter 6 shows these distributions for age and for income.
Best Wishes.
Hi Jerry,
Since I subscribe to the inductive framework for investment decision making, I’m a dedicated proponent for collecting as much statistical data as possible.
Along those lines, I’m typically not satisfied with a single data source or refer…
