Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Jerry,
You correctly stated that I quoted the 52 % stock ownership statistic from a presentation by Money Show organizer Kim Githier. She did not reference its source.
You develop a serious concern that embeds several auxiliary issues. Perhap…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
Thanks for your kind words.
As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, I no longer hold any stock positions. I abandoned individual stock-picking about five years ago, so I do not maintain any stock preferences at the pre…
Once Again Hi Guys,
In haste to deliver my promised report on the annual Las Vegas Money Show, I totally failed to communicate an additional observation that I feel is pertinent because it represents a significant sea change.
It is the evolving s…
Reply to @Investor:
I agree. Power laws are especially sensitive to data input accuracy. The nature of the mathematical formulas makes them highly susceptible to small errors. That is likely one major reason why economists favor linear relation…
Hi Investor,
I had one further thought relative to Complexity Theory that I failed to include in my initial reply.
Complexity Theory is a new, an exciting, and surely an evolving branch of science. It has much to contribute, but has much to learn…
Hi Investor,
Thanks for referencing the Lake Wobegon article from the Janus Capitol Group. Many of the sentiments expressed in that article dovetail very nicely with a few insights that I have emphasized in recent postings. It’s a comfort to get …
Hi Guys,
I have had second thoughts since my original post.
I initially used a circular argument when interpreting the CXO findings. I have corrected that error by inserting the strong relationship between GDP growth rate and corporate earnings w…
Hi Hank,
Apparently you took my market media survey far more seriously than I ever intended. I never planned a data review or interpretation analysis document. Sorry to disappoint you.
My original post on that matter clearly identified the flawe…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
Permit me to identify several errors in your response and/or direct you to the source of my statements.
In the opening line from your April 29 post to me, you yourself cited my “inappropriate non sequiturs” comment…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
If nothing else, I can confidently rely on your criticism.
You are 100 percent correct in assuming that my remarks specifically referred to you and, perhaps a few other MFO Board members (not many).
Your disapprova…
Hi Guys,
Academic research has demonstrated that momentum works in the investment arena for the near-term, hardly ever exceeding two years. Janet Brown has integrated that observation into her newsletter service and eventually into a series of mut…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
Many thanks for reading both parts of my overly long submittal. I appreciate your patience, your kind words, and your question.
I am a much more committed buy-and-hold investor now than I was when I purchased my f…
Reply to @hawkmountain:
Many thanks for the heads-up. Of course, I meant "civility", and have corrected my post accordingly.
My Dad often cautioned that if you don't make a few mistakes, you're not working fast enough.
Best Wishes.
Hi Guys,
As the founding father of MFO, and by his marvelous monthly letters, David Snowball is, whether he likes it or not, the discussion leader for this forum. He sets the tone, the discipline, and the civility of the member exchanges. Also, a…
Hi David,
Thanks for replying to my overly critical posting. I hesitated to originally post, but it’s important to report that even the king sometimes does not appear fully clothed.
I understand that your “Hmmms” listing is a device to defuse any…
Hi David,
In most instances I admire and respect your excellent analyses and writings. They are incisive with purpose and actionable meaning for us individual investors.
Given that record, I am greatly baffled by this submittal. Its purpose tota…
Hi Greg,
Thanks for your readership and reply.
I agree that it can be a challenge to maintain a precise portfolio asset allocation given the flexibility that active fund management often assumes.
Some mutual fund houses do try to enforce a rigor…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thanks for your reply to Greg’s question. Yes, both fear and inertia exist when making investment decisions. It is next to impossible to predict which will prevail in a given scenario.
Likely it changes from circumsta…
Reply to @GregFromBoston:
Hi Greg,
It’s so good to hear from you. It has been too long in coming.
I only read the summary section of your referenced Target Date Retirement Fund study so many of its subtleties may easily escape my notice. Sorr…
Reply to @Hiyield007:
Hi Hiyield007,
I couldn’t agree more. You are absolutely spot on-target. Rather than developing an investment philosophy, and then a policy and strategy to execute it to satisfy their own special circumstances and goals, m…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thanks for your initial reference to Bogle and your summary comments. Both were excellent.
I do not believe that the two options that you identified near the end of your submittal with regard to investor persistence i…
Hi Guys,
Ted, thanks for the reminder that Standard and Poors has released their 2012 SPIVA update.
The comparative passive/active outcomes remain relatively consistent year over year, but amazingly so over three and five year time horizons. Cert…
Hi Guys,
Most of you are aware that I admire and trust John Bogle. He is an innovator and true giant in the mutual fund industry. Although I have never been a member of the Boglehead clan, I listen very carefully whenever John Bogle ventures a fo…
Hi Guys,
I resisted as long as I could, but so many of you contributed that I felt obligated to participate from peer pressure considerations alone.
My current senior holding is the Dodge and Cox Balanced (DODBX) mutual fund. I have held the fund…
HI Bee,
As I mentioned in earlier posts, I invested using technical tools in the 1960s. The technical approach failed me so I abandoned it in the 1970s. Subsequently, I have monitored its developments over the last few decades by purchasing a few…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for the reference.
CalPERs has not yet made a final decision to go completely passive in their equity portfolio; it is currently being reviewed. Since CalPERS is currently about 50 % passively managed in their equity sleeve, the mo…
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Thanks for your reading and response time commitment.
The studies included a large and diverse number of participants so the conclusions are well grounded and documented. Barber and Odean alone reviewed the trading …
Hi Guys,
Mark, thanks for the reference. I was aware that the DALBAR QAIB document was somewhat controversial and not universally accepted in some quarters. The critique is fair.
But I would take exception to the case for an alternate interpreta…
Hi Guys,
Here is a linear, step-by-step procedure to complete the calculation that I believe you seek. It starts immediately.
For the 15 year data that you seek, go to Yahoo finance at:
http://finance.yahoo.com/
Next, input the fund symbol in t…
Hi Guys,
Indeed lane and line changing has come under the scientific and engineering microscope. That really shouldn’t shock anyone since there are efficiencies to be gained from the insights gleaned from such studies. Experts in the field do exi…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you for your timely reply to my post. It contributed needed extra dimensions to the discussion.
Your observation that early education in financial matters is urgently needed is spot on target. And it is somethi…
Hi Ted,
Thank you so much for reposting a reference to the recent British investment video.
It is excellent in terms of its message, its impressive financial cast of contributors, and its overarching clarity. Its only potential shortcoming is tha…
Trying to forecast future tax structure is a fool's game. It is an impossible task that is a waste of time.
Do what is an optimum strategy for your family at this moment.
Best Wishes
Hi Investor,
Thanks for the excellent reference.
All these types of reports consistently demonstrate how difficult a struggle it is to simply outfox a balanced Index portfolio.
Institutional investors should be the absolute cream of the crop with…
Reply to @Hiyield007:
Hi Hiyield007,
Thank you for visiting and commenting on my innocuous posting. Who can be mad at John Bogle for very long? He is an honorable and trustworthy member of the investment community for about six decades.
You do …
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
Thank you for the excellent contribution. It adds considerable depth to the discussion.
It illustrates the need and cautions the reader to assess the incentives of the authors. Incentives are always a dominant …
Reply to @msf:
Hi msf,
Thank you for the excellent reply to my post, and for the diligent work that you did to access a summary of Odean’s earlier research.
I too much admire the collaborative studies that Brad Barber and Terrance Odean complete…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for the news flash that alerts to a potential change in CalPERS money management selection philosophy.
CalPERS unhappiness with performance delivered by the active management sleeve of their total immense portfolio is not surprising…
Reply to @Hiyield007:
Hi Hiyield007,
Indeed, most of the academic studies mentioned produced mostly pedestrian conclusions. But I found one finding to be totally unexpected: Investors sell winners at a two-to-one ratio over losers.
I never ant…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you for taking time to react to my posting. It was designed to provoke some thoughtful responses. Your informed reply did not disappoint in that regard. You develop some stimulating alternate interpretations t…
