Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
I’m more than a bit intrigued by this ongoing Cyprus drama. In the US, this seizure of private bank deposits would be explicitly an illegal government operation; it would be in violation of our property rights.
Is that a possibility in t…
Hi Skeeter,
Congratulations on your decision to “go golfing”. Life is far too short to not do what gives you great joy and happiness.
But your chosen avocation is not an easy discipline; good golf is truly a tough nut to crack. Charles Ellis, in…
Hi Art,
You ask the perennial investors question. No forecaster ever has the absolutely correct answer since nobody is perfectly prescient or omniscient. Wall Street is littered with fallen experts who had momentary success, but failed to repeat.…
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
Thank you for your rapid, kind, and informative reply to my late contribution. I appreciated it, and surely all MFO forum participants will appreciate it. It added a deeper diversity of opinion to the discussion. We al…
Hi VirtueRunsDeep,
Congratulations for being long the current equity market.
I assume that you trust your existing portfolio; that you are reasonably satisfied that you made both a prudent asset allocation and wise choices within each category.
…
Reply to @Mark:
Hi Mark,
Thank you for taking your valuable time to read and reply to my post. I appreciate your efforts. Your response was thoughtful and well reasoned. I respect your comments on the topic and will keep them in mind as my own…
Hi Investor, Hi Greg,
Thank you guys for taking time to reply to my post. Both your responses were thoughtful and thought provoking. They both added to the scope and utility of my original submittal.
Investor, the articles that you suggested gre…
Reply to @Flack:
Hi Flack,
You made too cursory an examination of the WSJ. You overlooked the graphs.
The Moving Average data that I referenced in my post is exactly where it always is in the Journal’s Monday edition. It is placed in the Marke…
Hi Guys,
Sorry for my late entry into this discussion. I was away visiting a couple of baseball spring training facilities near Phoenix. Great fun; a delightful regression into the past. It’s a renewal thing for me.
I do have a question for the…
Hi Guys,
First and foremost, I want to thank each and every MFO member who visited my posting. The response was overwhelming and very satisfying to me since the goal of every single of my submittals is to educate, to inform our band of brothers.
…
Reply to @andrei:
Hi Andrei,
To this moment, no MFO member has chosen to answer your specific question. That, in itself, is an answer. There is no simple, clean, one-size-fits-all response. The most honest reply is that “It Depends”.
It depen…
Hi Guys,
Like Old Joe, I found Morningstar’s Don Phillips article on the active-passive controversy interesting; it contained both elements of fairness and balance.
But, but it was incomplete and shallow in its analyses of the debate.
First, I th…
Reply to @ron:
Hi Ron,
Indeed it is different strokes for different folks. But even admitting that each retiree must seek his own unique comfort zone, a few general policy rules are suitable for almost all retirees.
I have done a zillion Monte …
Hi Guys,
I submitted the following post to the MFO discussion group in late January recommending Monte Carlo simulations as a means to scoping the huge uncertainties with the retirement decision and an acceptable drawdown rate that generates a high…
Hi Skeeter,
Analysis earnings estimates often are bushy-tailed early in the annual predictions cycle.
The 10 % number that you pulled from the Morningstar reference seems to fall into that optimistic category. A forecast is only a forecast. Hist…
Reply to @andrei:
Hi Andrei.
I admire your persistence in seeking a firm specific bond selection from the MFO membership.
But I note that your impassioned solicitations have not succeeded in prying a single response from our participants. That f…
Hi Guys,
I thank you all for your participation in this exchange. The demonstrated interest in the posting far exceeded my expectations.
Although I have taken a position that simple Index investing delivers persistently superior returns when cont…
Reply to @andrei:
Hi Andrei,
I fully understand your frustration with an investment policy that passively seeks average performance. To most, that is unappealing because it appears like a cowardly surrender before the battle begins. The behavi…
Reply to @philpill:
Hi Philpill;
Thanks for your response.
I am familiar with the Bernstein-Pony Express challenge. Indeed the Pony Express system easily defeated Bernstein in that long ago challenge. But could that happen again if the challen…
Reply to @andrei:
Hi Andrei,
Indeed, not all wizards in any complex field of endeavor are equal. There is always a distribution of skill, experience, resources, and luck. If you ever participated in competitive sports this becomes abundantly cle…
Reply to @Mona:
Hi Mona,
Again I hesitate, so I’ll proceed with a bit of circumspection and self-control.
One major factor in my cautious decision process is an anticipated time-consuming controversy that my innocuous, neutral revelations would p…
Reply to @Mona:
Hi Mona,
Sorry if you feel I violated one of my own firm MFO rules of engagement.
I really do believe that portfolios are both a private and personal matter. They are unique to each of us. What works for me might well be a deva…
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
Thanks for your response; it will allow me to expand on what I define as cash.
I use a loose, non-academic definition for what I classify as my cash holdings; it is definitely not rigorous from a portfolio manage…
Hi Guys,
Indeed, when Skeeter announced that he had roughly 50 separate mutual fund positions I was initially shocked. On first reaction that seemed like an unnecessarily huge number that carried a praiseworthy diversification goal to an unwarrant…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
Thanks for the kind words and for your many informative submittals to the MFO site.
I haven’t formed a detailed assessment of Joel Greenblatt’s several investment books and the formulas that he recommends because …
Reply to @Shostakovich:
Hi D. S.
Thanks for your interest.
Please keep in mind that my current portfolio contains active components at the peripheral, perhaps 30 %. However, I expect I will always maintain a small fraction of our composite p…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
You are mostly correct in your assessment that I now favor Index-like investing.
I say mostly because our family portfolios are only partially committed to Index positions; we do have actively managed mutual fund h…
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
I too like and occasionally still use the Financial Engines product developed by Noble Laureate Bill Sharpe. It is mathematically a rigorous and superior Monte Carlo tool. Bill Sharpe has dedicated his work to i…
Hi Guys,
Retirement decisions are surely among the most difficult and stressful that anyone but everyone must eventually address. And the most successful retirements will be achieved the sooner that that issue is confronted; the earlier the better…
Hi Charles,
Once again, thank you for your current posting. It is an daunting piece of work that documents your commitment to manage your portfolio in a risk control manner. I’m sure your end portfolio wealth will reward you for your diligence an…
Hi Bee,
Sorry for my delayed response, but the season is a wonderful disruptive influence to any schedule.
I do precious little mutual fund trading, and what little I do is controlled by very simplistic selection criteria that are rule based. Giv…
Hi Charles,
Wow!! I’m overwhelmed with the body of work completed in support of your impressive posting. It is at a level of detail and magnitude to rival academic and industry research. Congratulations for a fine effort.
I no longer have the p…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott
Thank you so much for participating in this exchange. It benefits greatly from your thoughtful contribution. Your views on the topic are both clearly and concisely presented. Thank you for the considerate effort.
It …
Reply to @andrei:
Hi Andrei,
Thanks for your thought-provoking reply.
I would caution here against a too rapid rush to adopt a “Wisdom of the Crowds” investment philosophy. It only works sometimes and it would be extremely time consuming and di…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you for your thoughtful reaction to my post.
Based on your comments, I suspect we are in substantial agreement.
In part, you said: “ … (I)f you continue researching and reading and thinking and formulating opini…
Hi Guys,
Well here we go again as we expose ourselves to the market forecasts for 2013. Good luck if you think these market gurus are especially prescient and gifted soothsayers. They are not.
I do not waste precious time seeking or listening to…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles,
Thanks for your comments. I don’t disagree with you.
I’m sure that a whole bevy of financial advisors, market gurus, active fund managers, and especially hedge fund managers totally concur. It’s the same horde wh…
Hi Catch,
My simple response to your simple question is that I plan to retain all of my current holdings.
I do plan to rebalance towards a slightly lower equity allocation. That decision is not prompted by a fear of equity volatility, but rather …
