Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
Sorry folks, but I do not consider any current MFO participants , acting individually or as a team, brilliant. I definitely include myself in that harsh assessment.
On the positive side of that hard judgment is the realization that some …
Hi Bee,
I’m not familiar with any of the four funds that you mentioned; I’m definitely not a mutual fund junkie. So initially I could not answer your question with regard to the Active Share status of any of these funds.
But the chart that you pr…
Reply to @claimui:
Hi Claimui,
You have indeed successfully grasped the basic findings from the Active Shares study.
Keep in mind that I referenced the research as an additional tool to supplement whatever actively managed mutual fund selection …
Hi Shostakovich
My answer is very likely to disappoint you: It depends.
It depends if you want to invest using a broader telescopic perspective or a more focused microscopic perspective. I believe the more intense microscopic approach is warrante…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
I’m sure you did well with American Funds; I hired them in the early 1990s and they did deliver positive Alpha for me for good parts of a decade. I’ve adopted a more passive oriented approach more recently.
The Cap…
Reply to @bee:
Hi Bee,
I too was fascinated by Charles Ellis’s assessment of mutual fund management fees. I didn’t think it was possible, but Ellis out-Bogled cost containment master John Bogle himself with respect to cost analysis.
John Bogle f…
Hi Ted,
It’s a bit scary how far over towards the luck end of he spectrum that Michael Mauboussin positions investment decision making. He has written extensively on this subject and is a true believer in that judgment. He is not alone.
Nassim N…
Hi David,
Great stuff. Your November release to the MFO Commentary section is truly inspired. It is erudite, educational, entertaining, and an enjoyable addition to your earlier contributions.
I find it remarkable that you continue to improve you…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thanks for your extended reply. It addresses a much more significant issue than Jim Cramer’s integrity and honesty. The general public’s financial education is indeed a crucial subject. I agree with much you wrote on …
Hi Guys,
Thanks for the informative and revealing Jim Cramer interview video and your comments.
I am neither surprised or shocked. The man has an unbounded ego. His ego aside, the evidence strongly suggests that he is not prescient nor a real ma…
Reply to @BannedfromBogleheads:
Hi BannedfromBogleheads,
Thanks for your post. As promised, I appreciated it for your effort, welcomed it for its divergent viewpoint, respected it for its carefully crafted positions, and am honestly responding t…
Reply to @Charles:
Hi Charles.
Thanks for wading through my post. Admittedly, it is not the most logical or clearest that I’ve submitted. I composed it while in a contemplative haze. That haze found its way into my text. Sorry about that.
I d…
Hi Catch;
Thanks for your thoughtful and thought-provoking post. I enjoyed it, although some of the logic that guided your detailed interpretations did escape me.
Indeed in the last decade, institutional investors have replaced individual investo…
Reply to @Anna:
Hi Anna,
I just returned home from my normal weekend tennis match. Truth be told, at the average age of my doubles foursome, the event is more social in character than it is a competitive contest.
I was not altogether surprised …
Hi Anna,
Absolutely yes. Given any market event, expect a wide range of reactions. In essence, that is what markets are all about.
Your proposed group reaction, as well as those suggested by Catch and Investor, are all plausible actions.
Even …
Hi Catch,
Your morning coffee stop seems to be a dangerous fuel station. It appears to energize your free thinking into uncertain areas. Your introduction of demographic shifts and its impact on social and economic matters into the current discus…
Hi Guys,
Without a credible crystal ball or any substantial survey that discovers some meaningful insights, an endless array of stories can be logically formulated, arbitrarily concocted, or simply invented to explain the public’s massive exodus fr…
Hi David, Hi Accipiter
Thanks for reading my post; thank you again for taking time to respond.
My analysis assumes that a Normal distribution of annual real returns was postulated. That means that the future expected average real return per GMO p…
Hi David,
Thank you for the alert to the recent GMO forecast.
GMO, essentially Jeremy Grantham, has been making monthly forecasts of this type for many years. During this extended period they have revised their format over time just a little. Fo…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thanks for your thoughtful and thought provoking reply. It expanded both the thinking and opinion horizons on the topic. Great stuff.
We both see the gathering Hedge fund dynasties in much the same light. I agree H…
Hi Scott,
Thanks for the interesting reference. I have never seen the S$P 500 returns presented in this exact format. The presentation is a bit puzzling; I’ll need time to interpret what it is telling us.
Market traders have been watching the S&…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
Thank you for posting extended commentary that clarified your feelings with regard to my submittals on this thread. Your comments skillfully illuminated your positions on the matter and went well beyond the simple …
Reply to @MikeM:
Hi MikeM,
Thanks for taking time to compose a reply.
I fear you extrapolated a comment I made that is appropriate for and limited to our Founding Fathers over two centuries to today’s politicians.
My original commentary was dir…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
You have an ingrained propensity to disregard the forest for the trees, and seem to focus on hairsplitting over a few words in a rather lengthy posting while ignoring the principle thrust of the submittal.
The purp…
Hi Hank,
I take no umbrage with your posting. I think the financial status of candidate political leadership is one of many important inputs into assessing that candidate’s worthiness.
I did not interpret your reference as politically motivated; …
Hi Guys,
The assertion that wealth is a public office disqualifier is risible. It totally discounts fundamental Greek political philosophy; it disregards our own history.
Plato taught that politics was an activity best conducted by an elite cadr…
Reply to @fundalarm:
Hi Fundalarm,
Thanks for your story from the recent immigrant front. I interact with many immigrants on a regular basis. It is surprising how similar their viewpoint is with yours.
They abandoned a safer, but perhaps an un…
Hi Guys,
I want to thank everyone who responded to my submittal. It can be a prickly subject to freely discuss without bias charges. So I want to especially thank PatShuff and BobC for their lively and erudite replies. Both painted colorful pict…
Hi Mark,
I’m sure you’ll enjoy a great time in the Sunshine State. Much to do, and usually too little time to do it in a relaxed way. As I’ve mentioned earlier. My favorite food in and around Key West is conch, conch soap, conch anything. I quic…
Hi Catch22,
I’ve taken the liberty to simplify your question: You are seeking a map of the road to retirement.
Allow me to propose one candidate road; I’m sure it is not unique. It is one that I did not travel. I was not smart enough during my…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
I gather that my use of the terms Elite and Mundane offended you. You read more into these terms socially than was intended. The terms were chosen as simple single word identifiers to separate higher income work po…
Reply to @Mark:
Hi Mark,
Thanks for your lightening fast response; it is likely you could function well as a high speed market trader. You seem glued to your computer.
I concur that we share many common experiences and beliefs. That’s why I’m p…
Reply to @Mark:
Hi Mark,
So, you have been reduced to calling me a slut. As a minimum, it is gender inaccurate. If you wish to slander me, perhaps a pimp would be more appropriate. Of course, I reject either description.
Over 250 years ago, S…
Hi Guys,
Experience is never out of style.
I was somewhat taken aback by the many replies that emphasized the difficulties of securing gainful employment for older workers. Note that I included the qualifier term “gainful”. I certainly concur t…
Hi Mark,
Yes, working beyond age 65 is indeed a realistic option. Unfortunately, for some reluctant non-savers and some reckless spendthrifts, it is mandatory. The other side of that coin is that they can work and recover. As our life expectanc…
Reply to @Maurice:
Hi Maurice,
Thanks so much for the Louis Rukeyser stories. I enjoyed every story and every word of every story. Your storytelling skills are superb.
I too am a Rukeyser fan and wish I could access more of his material.
He d…
Hi Guys,
The longevity, opinion diversity, and participation level on this topic is amazing. Yes, it does have a few complex and sometimes controversial elements. But these options have been with us for a lengthy time now, and the Internet suppli…
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Thanks for your thoughtful contribution.
Your recall that David Swensen is a reluctant trader and typically recommends very rare portfolio rebalancing is spot on-target. In another lecture at Yale, Swensen advised a …
Hi Hank,
I am neither smart enough nor wise enough to proffer you retirement drawdown advice.
So I’ll do what I often do in these circumstances. I’ll tell you what my top-tier strategy is. Some elements might apply in your case; others might not…
Hi Guys,
Ted, thank you for the fine reference. It prompted me to think more deeply about how to interpret statistical works and to consider their potential shortcomings.
The Vanguard research that Ted linked serves as an excellent illustration o…
