Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Romroc,
From your posting, it appears that your investment frustration level is high, and perhaps even rising higher.
It seems as if you anticipated huge rewards almost immediately. Sometimes that does happen;; often it does not. But don’t al…
Reply to @bee:
Hi bee,
Congratulations. You have successfully distilled the fundamental essence of investment wisdom into a single, succinct sentence. It is brilliant in its brevity and wise in its advice. Very fine investment books have been…
Hi JohnN,
Thanks for the informative reference. I enjoyed it.
The author identified yet another source of forecaster incompetence. In this instance, CNBC was the source of the incompetence when it attempted to list the 10 most likely mutual fund…
Hi MikeM,
Thanks for your informative contribution. You enhanced the dialogue with your perceptive comments.
I suspect we shared some common learning experiences along the poorly marked investment pathway.
I too did my own stock selection for ab…
Hi Guys,
I’m shocked, SHOCKED, that you seem more stimulated by my references to the Carl’s Jr. advertisement campaign then by references to the propaganda text by Edward Bernays.
I mentioned the car wash video in my earlier post, and you express…
Hi Guys,
I suppose that the Hooters’ look-alike establishment is really only selling good food at a local Sports bar. I also suppose that a mother will pack her kids into the family car, and visit that business after seeing its advertisement. But…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
Your sarcasm notwithstanding, I welcome your rebuttal posting. It allows an unbiased reader to directly compare and contrast the merits of my positions and opinions opposite yours on the matter. The controversy per…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
The primary thrust of my submittal addressed to you and Old Joe was to distinguish between the quality research of professional Jared Diamond and the agenda-driven research of amateur Michael Ruppert. The professional e…
Hi Old Joe and Scott,
When I initially scanned your posts I experienced Farrell fatigue and Collapse confusion.
Paul Farrell has been singing this song for a long time now, and I immediately dismissed it as an outdated refrain without merit. He’s…
Reply to @Zolta:
Hi Zolta,
Thanks for the kind words. I try to inform.
With regard to your specific question, I have no special market insights or uncommon market wisdom. I struggle like everyone else to secure market rewards plus just a littl…
Reply to @DlphcOracl:
Hi DlphcOracl,
Thanks for your needed contribution. Nothing succeeds more than real world, hands-on experience when evaluating a product.
The commentary that concentrated on Stack’s portfolio management record surprised me…
Hi Guys,
Thanks for participating in this discussion.
Understand that the singular purpose of my posting was to alert MFO members to significant statistical perturbations that exist for the Sell-in-May rule of thumb. None of these rules hold for …
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Your reflections on the early finance conferences reminded me of a few more of Skousen’s commentary at the MoneyShow breakfast.
Apparently, the genesis of its evolving format can be traced to the late 1970s when Char…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for this insightful reference.
It is yet another demonstration of the need to do exhaustive out-of-sample testing whenever proposing a technical analysis tool.
Earlier today I posted a Link to a statistical timing study conducted b…
Reply to @Sven:
Hi Sven,
Morningstar calculates the upside/downside capture ratio for its fund universe for various timeframes.
Here is the Link that defines the ratio and how its calculated.
http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/upside-downsi…
Hi Guys,
Why the worry over oil and gas pipelines now? There are hundreds of thousands of these lines that have crisscrossed the United States in a complex network for decades.
They have established an unmatched track record as an economical, con…
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
Thanks for your quick and meaningful reply. I appreciate it.
I would take issue with the fund manager options A and B that you proposed. They are not all inclusive.
How about other options to more fully fill the optio…
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
Sorry for my long delay in responding to your request for a more economically centered reply.
As you well know I am not an economist; like you, I have been trained as and practiced the engineering discipline. So…
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
We are in total agreement on the two main points you developed in your posting.
I do not expect equal outcomes for all human endeavors. All baseball players can not hit for a 300 batting average and can not pitch a ball …
Hi Guys,
I have always respected Krugman as an economist. He just doesn't seem to do too much serious economic research any longer; I am not familiar with any recent probing research in his economic specialty area (international trade) from him.…
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
You make two keen observations regarding fund manager sex and the business cycle length to better understand fund manager performance. Thanks for your insightful contribution. I completely agree.
Numerous academ…
Hi Guys,
Paul Krugman knowingly abandoned the economic profession a decade or so ago when he became a political attack columnist.
That decision, which he had every right to make, has prompted him to jump-the-shark on many occasions. MFO contribut…
Hi Investor,
Thank you so very much for your reference to the article that reported the practical difficulties of implementing the Yale endowment model.
That model, as executed by David Swensen, delivered the goods for Yale; its transferability to…
Reply to @perpetual_Bull:
Hi Perpetual_ Bull,
I too started my portfolio assembly using individual stock holdings. That was way back in the 1950s. I continued that exercise until the early 1980s. I’m a slow learner.
I always followed a broad d…
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
Amen to your closing statement; I invest in mutual funds precisely to reduce complexity, to reduce my workload, and to hire experts in the field. However, I'm not sure it reduces my anxiety level which is likely low as a …
Reply to @Investor:
Hi Investor,
It’s good to hear from you again; it’s better yet that we agree in this area.
When collecting data in preparation for an investment decision, probably the most difficult task is to decide when we have penetrated …
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Thanks for your thoughtful and personal reply. Your life experiences and personal stories are important inputs that direct how you interpret data, and guides you to informed decision making. It is a maturing process.…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
I completely agree. The easy and relatively cheap access to worldwide investment opportunities is a double-edged sword.
On the positive side, it permits us to fill our portfolio with potentially very diverse and low co…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for participating in the “Doomsday Prophets” discussion. Your contributions were invaluable in fully expanding a necessary diverse perspective. Your perceptions and references added multiple dimensions to my narrow viewpoin…
Hi Guys,
I’m pretty much in Maurice’s corner on the Technical Analysis (TA) issue.
My answer to the question "What Does Technical Analysis Mean to You?" is just slightly more nuanced. Technical Analysis is not a primary factor in my investment de…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Joe,
Let me explain my intent when using the “spacious” word and the three pejorative terms.
My original post was my attempt to solicit comments on the global warming controversy.
I am open-minded on the issue and tentativ…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Joe,
Your reply is an excellent illustration of the messenger assassination syndrome.
Nowhere in your spacious tirade do you directly challenge the data that prompted the WSJ article. I surely am skeptical of some of Profe…
Reply to @Maurice:
Hi Maurice,
Thanks for reading my post. I hope you visit and absorb the SPIVA report.
I have a nuanced (only slightly so) reply to your question. I have a two-tier structure to my position on the passive-active debate.
For …
Hi Guys,
I visited the Fund Reveal website today.
Fund Reveal uses average Daily mutual fund returns and their volatility when making its recommendations. Their methods average data over various timeframes, but it is updated daily.
Loosely speak…
How about considering "Flatland" by Edwin Abbott Abbott. Its an oldie (1884) that I read in high school over 60 years ago. It's a short (only 100 pages) novella that examines worlds with different dimensions. It remains popular among scientists, …
Hi Ted,
I was about to submit the same reference when I discovered you were many hours ahead of me. That's always the case. I should have anticipated this action from the master Linkster.
Jason Zweig is an excellent financial columnist, and this…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Joe,
I finally recognized your Mea Culpa in your amended initial posting.
Thank you. I believe it is sincerely offered; I warmly accept it.
Investing is too hard, too financially significant, and potentially too emotiona…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Joe,
You’re kidding me; you’re pulling my chain, right?
If not, for reasons that totally escape me, somehow you wrongly construed my “august forum” statement to imply that I was referring to a monthly forum meeting. Of cou…
Hi Guys,
First and foremost, I want to extend a warm thank you for contributing to The Greek Tragedy discussion. Your comments, observations, analyses, and forecasts added needed depth and context to the topic. The deepening woes within Greece, a…
