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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
Not quite sure what Sullivan means by "respond" in the following short article and video clip. Future Russian actions may draw out an answer if negotiations don't produce results.
Sullivan added that an attack on NATO territory—even an accidental …
Russia may decide it makes sense to tempt a NATO country into participating in the war by targeting arms shipments headed to Ukraine while they are still in route through NATO countries that border Ukraine.
Russia warns U.S. over arms shipments to …
This war has the potential to substantially reshape NATO and the global order. European Union Countries have woken up to how vulnerable they are and they have ambitious plans. Hopefully their leadership and populations have the will and determinat…
No good suggestions from here. But, FWIW, here are a few thoughts.....
The current situation has made this seventy something reflect on firsthand experiences of the Cold War, the Iron Current, the Berlin Wall, and time spent under the desk during …
Markets are dealing with a spike in uncertainty as much of the world decouples from Russia. How will this shake out? The view from this house is that there is an increased risk of sustained inflation for the U.S. coupled with more risk of an econo…
The stock market has in recent years been more interested in receiving the Fed's continued support than about closely concerning itself with traditional valuation metrics (TINA). Related to that, Powell repeatedly indicated over the past couple of …
This nicely sums up my current thinking about the stock market:
“It will be extremely difficult for central banks to manage a situation where inflation is rising, but growth is also in danger,” Fidelity International market strategist Carsten Roemhe…
No fishing going on here. Long ago I had a system that alloted X% more to stocks based on a Y% stock market decline. But no more. Currently a very challenging situation with the Fed set to beginning to raise rates out of necessity as the chance o…
What if there is an invasion....this chart looks at the impact of several geopolitical shocks on subsequent stock market performance:
Link: Russia-Ukraine crisis
Just a matter of political will. And a reduction of GREED.
Perhaps using the word Just in this context is akin to waving a magic wand.
Here is a piece of the puzzle.....Within each nation and among rich and poor nations it is necessary to reach …
@bee you are welcome and yes about 1 yr. The widespread red is a relatively short term event so far. I find it useful to click through the timeframes of this simple chart periodically. About energy, yes, over 5 years it is still in the red. For…
Another use for VIX to aid with deciding about "getting off the sidelines"...
The buy signal is triggered when the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rises by more than 50% of its 1-month moving average, which it last did Jan. 25, according to the strategi…
Good job. Looks like it will be a smooth transition. I printed out the 21 Funds in 2021 list to look through it more closely....CBLDX has already grabbed my attention....
Looking at stock alternatives.....A chart that shows some of what's worked and what hadn't worked through the third week of the year.
From: BDC Market Weekly Review
Market movements this past week suggested to me the TINA way of viewing the stock market still had some life left in it. Perhaps there is enough ambiguity in the current situation that can continue to be the case at least for "a while".
Another suggestion that a Powell Put may well be slower to show up this time around even if the stock market buckles under the pressure...
Jerome Powell stuck to one message Wednesday, that the economy is strong and inflation must come down. Harried…
Stock market weakness since the start of 2022 has made me wonder what might cause the Fed to alter its anticipated course of action for the coming months. Perhaps -- in large measure due to the cumulative effect of actions taken by the Fed and Cong…
The stock market is adjusting to the reality that interest rates are probably heading up for at least a while. It's too early for me to have a clear sense as to how far and for how long. As to one of the questions at the start of this thread:
For …
Below chart is for FRESX, VNG (Vanguard real estate eft), FREL (Fido real estate etf) and FRIFX
CHART Chart limited to start of Feb. 2015 due to an inception date for FREL. At the left bottom edge of the chart, one may select the "red and green…
It currently looks like my overall portfolio stock % per Fido will be about 65% after my once a year cash distribution has been completed at the start of 2022 (vs. about 67% in stocks at the start of 2021).
A couple of OEF updates. The Bond sleeve…
There is a write up beginning on page 18 of the FRB Assessment that focuses on Retail Investors, Social Media, and Equity Trading. They appear to be in the "monitoring with concern" phase of the evaluation process regarding meme stocks, evolving tr…
Its too soon for me to be certain its different this time. But, the global central banks have been astute and activist enough in recent years to keep investors engaged and satisfied -- garden variety stock market corrections excepted. Accommodativ…
About 2/3 of my main portfolio is about equally split between stock investments via OEFs and individual stock holdings. The OEF stock investments generally have a total return focus but do include stock investments via mixed asset OEFs. The indivi…
Somewhat related to the Paul Krugman article....China appears to be managing a necessary slow down in it's long term growth rate by attempting to transition towards a more balanced sharing of a less rapidly growing economic pie. Here is an update o…
Good discussion. Lots to consider. Paying attention to VIX, earnings and expectations, and treasury yields. Also looking at the ongoing rate of growth in GDP, the trajectory of the spike in inflation (and the related supply chain bottlenecks), an…
Cathie Wood is fleeing. It it’s too hot for her I wouldn’t touch it.
I pay "some" attention to what Cathie Woods thinks. But, she is just one perspective among many.
BlackRock Inc. and UBS Group AG have turned positive on China’s beaten-down equ…
@dafor Quartz looks interesting. What do you think of it? Cost?
It costs me $50 per year (~$1/wk.) As I recall the current headline rate is $100 but they have frequent discount offers. Signing up for the Daily Read ( at qz.com ) provides a s…
Opened partial positions in TCEHY and BABA a few weeks ago. Think the goal is to reshape the giants rather than kill them. A couple of articles from this morning's reading:
Alibaba expands cloud business
Xi Jinping’s vision for China
No recent fund purchases or sales. But did recently open partial positions in TCEHY and BABA and REIT positions in COLD and PINE. Currently am slightly below my stock allocation percent for 2021 after early September stock trimming and stock marke…
Here is a look at the impact of deficit spending in our still low interest rate world and what the future may hold in store for us despite the deficit's continued growth:
The Real Cost of U.S. Debt Is Nearer the Floor Than the Ceiling
Just an example of how the Chinese giants are bending to the will of the CCP (perhaps part of the problem for BABA is that Jack Ma let himself become too much of an international public figure?)...
Alibaba Seeks to Exit Media Firm After Beijing’s S…
FWIW....The current significant shift underway will take some time to settle out. But, the transition to socialist utopia in China may take decades (or more) to reach it's final conclusion. If so, the private sector capitalist beast may well conti…
A couple of additional articles discussing potential impacts of the proposed law.
Wyden Proposal Would Impact ETF and Mutual Fund Redemptions-in-Kind and PTPs
ETF Giants Push Back Against Senate Democrat Who Wants to Take Away Tax Break
