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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
I suspected it was a sign of things to come when she started to receive daily headline press coverage. But, it somewhat surprises me how quickly things have unraveled. Some day it may make sense to buy a little ARKK.......
I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder whom @davfor was thinking of or reading.
I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder…
I wonder how they determined "the yield curve signals a lot of future rate hikes being priced in–so many, in fact, that the number of hikes would have to extend into 2024 to make sense."
It might make sense to see what the March 31 quarterly commentary will have to say about their recent thinking and positioning. The Outlook and Positioning section of the 12/31 commentary provides a review as of that date. But, the Trended Allocat…
Pg 16 (Better fit here): There are opportunities after an epic selloff in BONDS. Lot of rate hikes ahead may be in the market as the FED has been talking aggressively. Bonds may also be attractive for those who think that core inflation will come do…
@davfor; chart came through only for 1 yr. Use Permalink feature for posting chart as-is. After a while, even these will default to 1 yr. Alternative is to take screenshot, save on a hosting site (ImgBB, etc) and post using Image tool.
Does the char…
It has been my understanding the following simple StockCharts chart provides a total return comparison for UTF and VTSMX...in this case going back to 2004. Comments about the accuracy of my understanding will be appreciated.
UTF vs VTSMX
Many thanks for another information packed issue. A particular shout out from this house for the invest ideas provided by Lynn Bolin. I have already been researching a few of them. One additional note. My Firefox browser would not provide access…
@davfor, I also watch HMEZX, looks really interesting, but I am confused by mixed record of its manager James D. Dondero, e.g. at HSZAX, HHCZX, etc., see also https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1l0wrph2lc0j6/Nothing-Can-Stop-This-Hedge-…
@Junkster That didn't happen. I have been watching the bond world shift during Q1 of 2022 (including in the mortgages area you mentioned yesterday) and expect that trend to continue for a few more months or longer. What tipped the scales on RCTIX…
Decided to sell almost all shares of this multi-year position after reviewing the situation some more yesterday. Will watch on the sidelines until there is more clarity. (Retained a few shares as Fido now has a 100K minimum for opening a new posit…
This short post by Edward Yardeni discusses how the Fed is utilizing the yield curve as it searches for the neutral rate....
What about the narrowing yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries? During the Q&A session, Powell countere…
This is fascinating to watch. My "Its A Low Interest Rate World" mindset had decided that factors including demographic trends, AI, a low growth rate in Europe, and technology would likely combine to keep interest rates from rising significantly. …
@Derf Yes. It was the latter. But, overall, my portfolio is down 4.4% YTD. So, there has been a slight downturn. Non-stock investments have tended to drop in tandem with stock investments so far this year....somewhat to my surprise. Decisions …
Generally at the end/start of the calendar year. That's when any changes in the allocations generally get set for the new year. (My primary investment account is taxable.) If a substantial overall stock market drop occurs during the year rebalanci…
@Crash It might make sense to relabel this as Buy Sell Why 2022?....just a thought.
Still watching and sitting in Hold position since year-end shuffling completed in early January.
The expanded arsenal that the U.S. is sending to Ukraine includes 100 armed drones that are tube-launched from the ground and plunge into their targets....Army officials have described it as a flying shotgun. It’s less than 24 inches (61 centimeters…
Putin as a 21st century fascist? That description may help to explain him and this war. Isn’t Russia a Communist country?
I am no historian. But, I thought about that question after reading the "Putin Isn't Just An Autocrat...." article yesterda…
Putin as a 21st century fascist? That description may help to explain him and this war.
Putin Isn’t Just an Autocrat. He’s Something Worse.
Putin’s War on Ukraine Is About Ethnicity and Empire
Below are extensive excerpts from a current article in The Economist.
Thanks for those excerpts. Other reading suggests the extent of his military losses may not be as substantial as the excerpts suggest. But clearly the war is not going as he …
I doubt if Putin sees an advantage to deliberately pulling NATO into the conflict at this point. The Ukraine war is still in its early stages. But it is clear he is willing to push the boundaries on that front.
Not quite sure what Sullivan means by "respond" in the following short article and video clip. Future Russian actions may draw out an answer if negotiations don't produce results.
Sullivan added that an attack on NATO territory—even an accidental …
Russia may decide it makes sense to tempt a NATO country into participating in the war by targeting arms shipments headed to Ukraine while they are still in route through NATO countries that border Ukraine.
Russia warns U.S. over arms shipments to …
This war has the potential to substantially reshape NATO and the global order. European Union Countries have woken up to how vulnerable they are and they have ambitious plans. Hopefully their leadership and populations have the will and determinat…
No good suggestions from here. But, FWIW, here are a few thoughts.....
The current situation has made this seventy something reflect on firsthand experiences of the Cold War, the Iron Current, the Berlin Wall, and time spent under the desk during …
Markets are dealing with a spike in uncertainty as much of the world decouples from Russia. How will this shake out? The view from this house is that there is an increased risk of sustained inflation for the U.S. coupled with more risk of an econo…
The stock market has in recent years been more interested in receiving the Fed's continued support than about closely concerning itself with traditional valuation metrics (TINA). Related to that, Powell repeatedly indicated over the past couple of …
This nicely sums up my current thinking about the stock market:
“It will be extremely difficult for central banks to manage a situation where inflation is rising, but growth is also in danger,” Fidelity International market strategist Carsten Roemhe…
No fishing going on here. Long ago I had a system that alloted X% more to stocks based on a Y% stock market decline. But no more. Currently a very challenging situation with the Fed set to beginning to raise rates out of necessity as the chance o…
What if there is an invasion....this chart looks at the impact of several geopolitical shocks on subsequent stock market performance:
Link: Russia-Ukraine crisis
Just a matter of political will. And a reduction of GREED.
Perhaps using the word Just in this context is akin to waving a magic wand.
Here is a piece of the puzzle.....Within each nation and among rich and poor nations it is necessary to reach …
@bee you are welcome and yes about 1 yr. The widespread red is a relatively short term event so far. I find it useful to click through the timeframes of this simple chart periodically. About energy, yes, over 5 years it is still in the red. For…
Another use for VIX to aid with deciding about "getting off the sidelines"...
The buy signal is triggered when the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rises by more than 50% of its 1-month moving average, which it last did Jan. 25, according to the strategi…
