Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
My "cash account" currently includes RPHYX, ICSH, and FZFXX. I was at 67% equities at the start of the year but am currently up to 70% despite some previous YTD stock trimming. Thus, the thought of trimming stocks back again now to add a little mo…
I remember shopping for a mortgage loan in the spring of 2007 when we were purchasing a winter home on the gulf coast of Florida. One lender (not the one we selected) didn't want to see any documentation of household income...what the application f…
Nothing new here. Just a few general thoughts......
**Megastars come and go as winning active investment approaches evolve (the market inevitably figures out how to outwit them).
**It's probably better for active managers to invest heavily in the…
A big part of the reason confronting the climate change challenge continues to be so difficult:
A Texas Solution to Global Warming: Use More Air-Conditioning
It makes sense to me to focus more on methane emissions.
Here is a little more on a big picture problem created by the disconnect between the lack of widespread understanding and concern and the potential for long-term global necessity.:
It’s preci…
Here is a Summary of a recently released Global Commons Survey. The Survey measures the level of responder awareness regarding changes deemed crucial by members of the scientific community to limit climate change. And it looks at barriers to takin…
Yes. It is assumed this headline will be taken with a grain of salt. It is perhaps an exaggeration and is at least an over generalization. But, it does point to the potential for trading apps to impact investor behavior in reckless ways, includin…
That chart and the comment provide a useful big picture explanation for at least part of what has changed in the UK in recent decades. They also speak more generally to the potential staying power of the global climate change challenge.
Here is an…
The population increased in the 1980's. My hunch is the 1980's drop was at least somewhat related to the continuing decline in coal consumption and the related 84/85 coal strike and its aftermath (Iron Lady time).
this is cool --- the UK's 1850 levels
Yes. That is encouraging. The image doesn't show up on my computer....just the word "image". But going to the link I sleuthed when previewing this reply provides the image. Weird....
https://pbs.twimg.co…
Yes, it's just supposed to keep us even-steven. But I can choose NOT to spend that 6.2% and INVEST it! Yaba daba doo.
And you have had a year to adjust your spending habits by making substitutions for and perhaps eliminating less important items.…
I made a mid-career return to graduate school in the mid-1980's in applied economics. My focus was on public policy analysis related to non-renewable and very slowly renewable natural resources. My basic take-away from that experience was that dis…
In case you haven't checked it out, CEF Connect is another site you might want to visit. One thing I like is the pricing information tab display of premium/discount trends through various time periods:
The authors acknowledged the attention grabbing aspect of their headline when they stated "European natural gas rates have surged more than 1,000% from a record low in May 2020 due to the pandemic, while Asian LNG rates have jumped about six-fold in…
interesting...noticed the ticker symbol for my prior link above didn't match up with BGHIX even though the name appeared on the surface to be correct.
Then read this report that indicates managers and investment strategies will remain unchanged: D…
Per FIDO: BGHIX BRANDYWINEGLOBAL HIGH YIELD I
deleted link...see additional comment below...
I considered selling before the second scheduled voting date on the takeover, but have hung on and will now take a look at the combined fund compositi…
Agree about the Roth IRA investment idea. Established Roth IRA in our son's name in 2005 when he was 23. Tax free compounding through the decades is a real perk especially when coupled with the potential for taking tax free withdrawals down the ro…
Short summary of research note...
Bank of America (BofA) called central bank digital currencies “a much more effective payment system than cash,” in a research paper published Wednesday.
...CBDCs could “replace cash completely in the (distant) futu…
Per @msf:
IMHO, the key distinction between cryptocurrencies and central bank digital encrypted currencies is that the latter are ultimately issued by central banks.
That makes sense to me. Relatedly, the stability of each CBDC will be directly lin…
A couple of definitions:
cryptocurrency: a digital currency in which transactions are verified and records maintained by a decentralized system using cryptography, rather than by a centralized authority.
"decentralized cryptocurrencies such as bit…
@bee thanks for the informative CBDC post
Re cryptocurrencies:
"Cryptocurrency is like taking the worst parts of today's capitalist system (eg. corruption, fraud, inequality) and using software to technically limit the use of interventions (eg. a…
It feels like the market's current worries are beginning to test Grantham's "sell the news" theory.
Wall Street’s New Fear Is That the Economy Has Already Peaked
One thought on @bee 's comment. I finally realized I will not live forever as I looked at turning 70. After considering reasonable life cycle needs and set-aside goals for relatives and non-profits, I decided it was time to loosen up a bit on my e…
This M* article looks at current projections and remaining uncertainties that will impact the October COLA announcement and also considers potential changes to the Medicaire Part B premium:
Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment Looks Uncertain
This article provides some historical perspective and reviews some of the policy change recommendations currently being discussed:
How the Federal Reserve can really help America
Sounds like Powell is thinking seriously about supporting implementation of a CBDC:
"You wouldn't need stablecoins, you wouldn't need cryptocurrencies, if you had a digital US currency," the Fed chief said. "I think that's one of the stronger argume…
From the article:
....one advocacy group for senior citizens is projecting a 6.1% increase in 2022 due to surging inflation.
That would be the biggest cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) hike since 1983.
Link to Another COLA Projection
SVARX works hard (ER over 3%) to produce an upside of 128 and a downside of (-53). Help me understand the negative downside capture number.
Explanation of Upside and Downside Capture:
https://freefincal.com/how-upside-and-downside-capture-ratios-…
Got curious and found a report by Natixis about the survey. The optimism is global:
US investors may have the highest long-term return expectations at 17.5%, but the 161% gap with the professionals’ call for returns of 6.7% looks better than what’s…
Trimmed FANG holding a little yesterday when it briefly topped $100/share. It's had a great run since last fall when it was purchased. And, the near term potential for its Permian Basin acreage still looks promising. But it's share price is appro…
CV19 caused tightness in the toilet paper supply chain in my supermarket last spring/summer. One package per customer. Hoarding and furloughed tree fellers in the PNW's forests contributed to rationing. Not sure if this affected timber prices. Eithe…
The history based models for climate averages may not be a reliable guide for future weather forecasting (due to global warming), but is the stock market history also to be discarded? "Its really different this time." I'm not sure about that. …
This summer NW Oregon is experiencing an unprecedented heat dome. Last summer we lived through historic forest fires. Things are strange around here. A quote from a WP article this morning:
“As there is no previous occurrence of the event we’re e…
I just revisited Grantham's January 5 article. His best guess at that time:
My best guess as to the longest this bubble might survive is the late spring or early summer, coinciding with the broad rollout of the COVID vaccine. At that moment, the mo…
A little European thinking about the appropriate relationship between potential central bank digital currencies and the private sector:
Benoit Coeure, the head of the Bank for International Settlement’s Innovation Hub,....said the most likely setup …
