Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
It appears I am almost 20 times safer being here in small town Western Oregon than I would currently be at my old address in gulf coast Florida! One thought...studies indicate people may continue to test positive for a period of weeks after they st…
FWIW....
Reading through some of these comments reminds me of the total return formula Jack Boogle often discussed:
TOTAL RETURN = INITIAL DIVIDEND YIELD + EARNINGS GROWTH OVER THE TIME PERIOD + SPECULATIVE RETURN (CHANGE IN P/E RATIO OVER THE TIM…
Yes. That is an interesting concept. Relatedly, it might also be helpful to link the current bubble to the ballooning federal deficit created by the stimulus programs (which will only balloon further if Biden's proposed New Deal era style programs…
An email in my inbox this morning from TheBulwark provides a description of Trump's current election strategy. I might switch #1 and #2 in my personal 4 point list given his day-trader way of analyzing things...
What is Donald Trump's incentive str…
The article made only a passing reference to the ongoing fiscal stimulus being provided to the economy. At least a sentence or two more with some counterpoints about why the stock market will decide to ignore that stimulus would have been helpful. …
Dr. Fauci and other health department officials weigh in about the new normal.....
White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said it is unlikely Covid-19 will ever be eradicated.
Fauci said the virus is unlike SARS, a coronavirus that emer…
A little more about a possible new normal. The House of Commons in the U.K. is being provided some probably unwelcome advice about how long the coronavirus will probably be with us:
....the coronavirus (is) set to be around for “decades” to come, S…
It looks like the Senate Republicans will have creation of a "new normal" on their minds in their upcoming negotiations regarding the next coronavirus stimulus bill...
As for liability protections, McConnell said he was focused on “creating a safe h…
Interesting article in NYT today. It suggests a low rate of vaccination is probable in the US. That outcome coupled with possible (probable?) less than initial high effectiveness suggest our post pandemic world may be one in which we continue to l…
MIAQX looks promising. But, its interesting it is classified as a multisector fund. A quick credit quality/duration comparison to Diamond Hill High Yield (DHHIX) which I own suggests the two funds are close cousins. Anyway, I plan to check into M…
Helpful reading. This is my perhaps overly simplified takeaway.
I had seen a reference to the 20% model. But, I had not seen an explicit discussion of how heterogeneity in the characteristics of the local environment and in the local behavioral r…
Here is a little more info that has bearing on the Swedish response to the pandemic. It suggests it may not be possible for a country to achieve naturally occurring herd immunity to Covid-19.
...the facts are already quite clear: herd immunity will…
In a similar vein, here are a couple excerpts from something I just read:
"It seems like we have dodged a bullet, yet a look under the surface reveals a much sicker market....the S&P 500 is still down 1.88%, but TPA's BIGTECH Index (the top 8 st…
The author didn't offer an indication of when "the bubble" might burst (perhaps no time soon). But, some of his observations resonated with me. A few examples:
The Fed’s role in managing markets is becoming ever larger and has now expanded into bu…
Here is a short article that looks at current state of knowledge about the varied long-term effects of Covid-19. One interesting observation:
Both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) infect cells through ACE2 receptors...But “S…
Here are excerpts from two articles in NYT today that lend support to my hopeful attitude regarding the current situation.
Four recent polls — including one released this week by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm — suggest that about 15 millio…
No one knows how long QE Infinity might endure. Biden is proposing a fiscal policy alternative to Cimmamond's MCD solution that could help to offset some of QE Infinity's destructive and destabilizing effects.
Seen in its full breadth and scope, th…
stealing from countless before him
yeah, we are now an undisciplined country whinier by the day, eating those early marshmallows
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/15/we-could-have-been-canada
with our lingering horrific conflict herita…
Here is an another side effect to add to the list:
Called hospital delirium...the condition is bedeviling coronavirus patients of all ages with no previous cognitive impairment. Reports from hospitals and researchers suggest that about two-thirds to…
Here is another angle on this story...
The last time Americans were asked to sacrifice daily life
A good president can make you feel the urgent necessity of washing your hands after sneezing into a tissue so that your grandmother will be safe and …
Florida has moved in that direction too. It will be interesting to see what the Jacksonville situation is like in late August when the Republicans plan to have their get together there....
https://news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/26/florida-immedi…
Here is the current "trending toward the mean" thinking from GMO (similar to Grantham's thinking) in the form of their 7 year real return projections for May 2020:
https://gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-may-2020…
Thanks for the link. I traded into this fund at 9.95 as soon as it became available through Fido to enable taking a tax loss on prior EM holdings. It made sense to me to trade into a portfolio that was being built after the pandemic had begun. So…
Leadership is critical at a time like this! Most of us are eager for the restrictions caused by the pandemic to be a thing of the past. I was very relieved to learn that testing is the primary method of transmission for the virus. Having not been…
Here is the "chart at the bottom".
Changes in the number of cases being reported is partially due to increasing levels of testing in some states as well as to other factors. What would be more helpful to me at this point would be to see charts …
@WABAC
Yardeni indicates in the article that the movement towards stocks since mid-March will have strong support "for the forseeable future". That -- and other things he has written elsewhere -- suggest he does not think the time of reckoning f…
@msf Thanks for the added details. The size of the "errors" for April and May appear to be similar to the size of the total monthly unemployment rates for many preceding individual months (how the world has changed!). This article was the first I…
Here is a link to an article that reviews the initial report from Italy. A couple of takeaways:
...the clinical findings in Italy likely do not reflect any change in the virus itself. Zangrillo’s clinical observations are more likely a reflection …
@expatsp Thanks for the link. It doesn't explain what the Italian doctors have observed but it does suggest it is doubtful the virus losing its strength....
Thanks for this info. I plan to check out this new fund as an option for replacing my existing allocation to EM (for tax loss purposes). They will at least be able to construct a pandemic aware EM portfolio.
Here is a little more info:
In the vast majority of younger adults, covid-19 appears to result in mild illness with the risk of more severe consequences rising with every decade of age. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 0…
@FD1000 Thanks for providing a current reading based on the charts. I only loosely follow them but have also noticed that VIX has been in general trending down for over a month.
This article provides another example of the global trend among central banks and how psychology can impact the policy shift decision and size of a response.....
The Bank of Japan.....promised to buy as many government bonds as needed and more than …
@Crash No. I fly -- sometimes direct from Maui or Oahu and sometimes with a brief stop in Lanai. Last time, I used Mokulele Airlines both ways to and from Honolulu. Here is a video clip that shows their terminals in Molokai and Honolulu and the …
