Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Let's be real here, indeed-
Key word here is "documented". A known fact. As in FACT. Are you familiar with the concept?
"Predicted" mortality under non-hurricane normal circumstances is hardly a "guess", since accurate data on that is certainly wi…
The really sad thing is that a "work of satire" has now become indistinguishable from reality. (Although, on some days I have to wonder if there is even such a thing as "reality" any more.)
Yes, an excellent summary of the "Great Recession". However, there's very little in that article that an attentive reader of The Wall Street Journal and The Economist wouldn't have been aware of as the events described actually unfolded.
A short ex…
@Ted- "Less is More": An admonition which you should really pay attention to the next time you compile your never-ending list of largely useless links, and then cheat to place them in the "Comments+" section because no one else ever bothers to comme…
@Ted: You, of all people, blatently stepping on someone else's previously posted information, an offense against which you have complained scores of times over the years.
That link which you give is in fact for my first link: Map: Atlantic Tropical…
In a separate thread I've posted some useful links to various National Hurricane Center information.
Again, good luck to all in the path of this monster.
I just checked Merriam-Webster for their take on "high-falutin", and danged if that don't describe ol' MJG pretty good. "pretentious, fancy; expressed in or marked by the use of language that is elaborated or heightened by artificial or empty means …
Oh-oh. I just lost a whole lot of faith in engineering. If the guy who engineered that bridge in Genoa is still around maybe he can find a new career as a financial planner.
Best of luck to you Old Skeet, and all others in the path. We'll get ours too one of these days, but it will be the San Andreas Fault rather than a hurricane.
Hoping for the best for you
OJ
You're right on the time comment. I forgot that MFO automatically translates time zones to local times. Sorry. But at least I've boosted your "view score" and "comment score" well above where they would otherwise be.
10 views, several of which were yours, in three hours, with no comments at all. So you needed to cheat to kick it into "Comments+" to hopefully give yourself a little more attention. Sad.
@Mark- thanks for the research. Your first link is very interesting, and I think it's worth adding a short excerpt from that link:
"The topic of security clearance for elected officials has long been a complex one. Members of congress – even those …
@MikeM- Thanks, Mike. I completely agree that Monte Carlo surely can't hurt, and if that's all that you can use, it's much better than doing nothing.
@MJG: "facility failures that you identified were caused by shortfalls in their design as complet…
"I am an experienced user of Monte Carlo analyses. In the nuclear engineering discipline (one of my masters degrees is in that field), it is a frequently used tool."
@MJG: I expect that the nuclear engineers responsible for 3-mile Island, and Chern…
"Why you selected those fixed values puzzle me."
"I generally ran cash and bond income at 2% below the inflation rate, which was also a selected variable, and equity income at 2% above. Very conservative."
@MJG: Did you perhaps overlook the "very …
@MikeM - Hi there Mike- I think that msf has pretty well covered the general response to your questions. Because Monte Carlo simulation was not widely available during our working years, I designed (took me a while, I'll tell you) a "predictive" spr…
@hank- Non-user here also... never got into smoking at all, thank the gods. Never would have even noticed MJ without Ted mentioning it's current run. Trying to figure an arbitrary place to exit. $200?? Any thoughts? For sure that sucker is gonna dro…
"So a 3-4% hit to one asset means little to me."
@hank: Exactamundo. Now the good news! Ahead $178 on MJ! In less than two weeks! Why didn't somebody tell me about this before?? More fun than the slots and you don't even have to pull the handle! …
@Ted: Since you're determined to cheat, at least try and do it sort of professionally: How can anything have been "updated" at the times you specify when there was no edit at those times? You're a real clown, Ted.
@slick- Maybe what we need is a version of a Monte Carlo calculator to determine the chances of our longevity, which we could then match against the financial Monte Carlo results. That might radically change one of the major inputs to the financial …
Just a side-note- this is one of the best and most well-tempered discussions that I've seen here in a long time. Thanks very much to all participants!
Now carry on!
Speaking of "security purposes", the other day I came up with a positively brilliant scheme for generating those damned security codes that every site seems to ask for, and that are impossible to remember. Unfortunately, this will only work for thos…
"All Members of Congress have access to intelligence by virtue of their elected positions."
That may be true, but when the controlling majority of Congress cheerfully assumes voluntary fetters the paths to correcting the situation are very limited.
