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"great" post." It is refreshing to have an established bond analyst to discuss the process of exploring various sectors of bonds and their inefficiencies."
But I don't see why we need an "established bond analyst" when we already have FD1000.
Well, if your toilet ain’t working, do you want ageneral therapist who claims to know a lot about everything from gutter repair to toasters? Or do you want a dedicated plumber with all the right tools?
For those who haven't listened to the podcast or read the transcript,[snip]
If your goal is to earn more with lower volatility, which is where I am since retirement,
then a few principles stand out:Consider funds from small to medium-sized shops; they often have more flexibility.
and can uncover opportunities larger firms can’tNewer funds can sometimes perform even better because they’re more nimble.Don’t obsess over expense ratios; what ultimately matters is performance after fees.
The bond market is unique;certain segments can outperform for only a few months (sometimes longer),.
so active trading and tactical skill really matterTiming is also critical, especially avoiding major drawdowns like in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
[snip]
On its face, 2025 has been a good year for the stock market. The S&P 500 was dragged out of its tariff-induced springtime slump by a small subset of AI-forward power players whose spectacular gains defied an otherwise softening economy. Even now, despite a rocky November, the benchmark index is up more than 12 percent since the start of the year.
A group of trillion-dollar brands known as the “Magnificent Seven” — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — has been at the forefront of those gains, thanks in large part to corporate spending and intense interest in artificial intelligence. But economists and investors are raising concerns about the companies that aren’t part of the AI investment boom — in other words, most businesses in the United States.
An index that leaves out the seven high-flying tech firms — call it the S&P 493 — reveals a far weaker picture, as smaller and lower-tech companies report lackluster sales and declining investment.
“You have the headwind of de-globalization and tariffs, and the tailwind of AI … those forces are battling to a draw, and in that crosswind you get winners and losers,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. “Anything that is not connected to AI is throttled lower.”
Some experts are worried that the S&P 500, an index of large-company stocks that underpins the fortunes of millions of Americans with 401(k) and other retirement accounts, has become too reliant on the Magnificent Seven; they collectively account for about a third of its value, leaving the broader stock market heavily dependent on the continued success of “the AI trade,” says Torsten Slok, chief economist at the private equity firm Apollo Global Management.
“There is no diversification in the S&P 500 anymore in my view … it is all the AI story now,” Slok said.
Publicly traded small and midsize companies have taken a beating by comparison. The Russell 2000 lost 4.5 percent in the one-month period leading up to Friday, compared with a loss of around 2 percent for the S&P 500. A little more than a third of the companies in the Russell 2000 index either don’t make money or are losing money.
The market’s concentration in Big Tech has also given rise to concerns about what would be left if an AI bubble were to burst. Those fears have been amplified in recent weeks as Big Tech names suffered a modest sell-off, with some analysts raising concerns that the AI industry has overspent on infrastructure at a time when the technology’s actual profit-generating potential is still nascent.
Tech stocks have endured a series of rocky sell-offs since late October, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index falling around 7 percent from its Oct. 29 peak. Markets rebounded Friday, with the index trimming some of its losses from earlier in the week.
Slok, the Apollo economist, says he is particularly worried about the recent AI losses because so much of the recent economic growth has been shored up by free-spending wealthy households. A deep correction in AI stocks, if it ever arrived, could threaten the “wealth effect” that is doing so much to prop up the economy, Slok warned.
I think most people would be even hard pressed to answer what they meant by "doing great". and that might be fine. it could be, we set up a plan and we are on track. but IMO its unfathomable to me to leave that to trusting a person who even though is maybe bound by some fiduciary "code", really can have whatever motives they want.”our guy says we are doing great "
That raises an interesting question. Assuming this is for someone in retirement, what would ”doing great” mean YTD?
Someone sitting 100% in cash would think 5% YTD is “great.”
Playing in longer dated CDs …. maybe 7%?
With 100% in a balanced fund 10% might appear “great.”
For an actively managed broadly diversified portfolio +15% might be “great “
With an hefty exposure to gold / precious metals, +30% YTD might represent “great”.
Disclosure: My performance has not been “great”, but is OK. I’ve managed to step on my own toes a few times this year.
Fund Value
Vanguard Institutional Index $221,250,199
Vanguard Developed Markets Index Instl $83,722,284
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index $71,995,591
Vanguard Small Cap Index Instl $70,044,449
Personal Choice Retirement $67,962,323
Harbor Capital Appreciation $44,636,465
Primecap Odyssey Aggr Growth $36,342,335
Vanguard FTSE Social Index $32,061,017
Vanguard Emrg Mkts Index Adm $30,301,024
Vanguard Selected Value $28,262,985
Washington Mutual Fund R6 $27,567,856
American Funds New World R6 $26,086,153
Dodge & Cox International Stock $25,466,788
Pimco Total Return Fund Cl A $24,645,158
Oakmark Select Investor $21,042,844
Vanguard Intl Growth Admiral $20,605,184
PIMCO Real Return Fund Instl $20,450,560
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2040 $18,932,495
T. Rowe Price Stable Value Com Trust A $18,533,530
Vanguard Real Estate Inx Instl $17,500,289
Dodge & Cox Global Bond Fund $17,214,377
Royce Special Equity Svc $13,314,096
PIMCO Commodity Real Ret Instl $11,423,605
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2050 $11,124,375
Vanguard Fed Money Market Fund $9,010,788
T Rowe Price High Yield $7,981,306
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2060 $7,417,153
Loomis Sayles Bond Fund $7,338,851
Wasatch Small Cap Growth Fund $6,467,915
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2030 $5,930,256
Invesco Developing Markets R5 $4,460,437
DFA International Small Company $4,349,683
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2045 $1,642,105
Vanguard Target Retmt Income $1,235,913
Personal Choice Retirement 2 $1,169,885
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2035 $806,421
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2020 $610,899
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2055 $169,980
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2070 $47,081
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2065 $29,131
Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2025 $15,360
* Cash Cash $3,235
in case you were wondering how the 401k was currently allocated: You’re obviously not great at timing — so why bother doing it at all?One more post that timing the market is just gambling:
I reduced my equity holdings from 45% to 30% over the summer thinking things were too overvalued and told myself I will not buy until October which is normally not a good month. FOMO was hard as everything was going higher and higher just about EVERY day but I wasn't going to budge! I apologize for not alerting the board that I was going back to 45% November 3rd. The last 2 days are just a slap in the face which as we all know happens to all of us. Down days after a big purchase. I will follow my asset allocation plan, I will follow my asset allocation plan. I will continue to type that 100 times as punishment for bad behavior. UGH
https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/best-ways-generate-income-retirement¹ The key reason that academics and other firms like our firm at Morningstar tend to like the total return approach is that you’re assembling the portfolio without regard to income characteristics. So you’re not artificially constraining the set of securities that you would use to populate that portfolio.
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