Why The 4% Rule May Be Irrelevant Yes, a great deal depends on one's circumstances, prospects and specific desires as to what to actually DO with retirement income. I could forget about Medicare and live like a king in The Philippines, even after needing to buy an insurance policy over there which covers my long list of prescriptions and doctor/hospital care. (Wife is from there.) But the food and the climate in The Philippines both really suck. I could, as an Irish citizen, move there, too. But the health insurance system is not as good as some others within the EU. I do know for certain specifically that diabetes needs are covered 100%, totally free, in Ireland. And I'd first have to establish residency in Ireland for long enough to be able to fill out a form which transfers my health coverage to a different country within the EU which I actually want to live in--- maybe the south of Portugal, where it's sunny and warm for more of the year.
But as long as my wife remains 19 years younger than I am, there is a very reasonable expectation for as long as I live that at least one full-time income can be depended upon, between the two of us. That's like an "ace in the hole." My income-producing mutual funds only continue to grow, too. So, we can afford to leave the principal behind me, so that she will get it after my passing. Which I hope will be many years away. Our Will provides the specific destinations for various percentages of what we will both leave behind, once that happens. It is satisfying to be able to do this, emotionally and spiritually. But I worry about my son's prospects re: retirement. Nothing like my own case. He's 25. ... Re: healthcare, just imagine how much easier and stress-free everything would be if we could provide decent healthcare to everyone, globally?! ...It would require some very stoopid countries to get smart, though. I'm talking about IQ as well as putting POLITICAL stoopid-ity behind them!
Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan Steps Down It's about time:
https://washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/28/wells-fargo-ceo-tim-sloan-step-down-immediately/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b3b4845a290bCrazy he gets paid this after what happened:
Making matters worse was the bank’s disclosure earlier this month in a regulatory filing that Sloan received $18.4 million in compensation in 2018, about a 5 percent bump from the previous year..
“About damn time. Tim Sloan should have been fired a long time ago,” Warren tweeted Thursday. “By the way, getting fired shouldn’t be the end of the story for Tim Sloan. He shouldn’t get a golden parachute. He should be investigated . . . And if he’s guilty of any crimes, he should be put in jail like anyone else.”
Sloan has earned more than $150 million in compensation since 2011, according to Equilar, a data firm that measures executive compensation. His retirement package will include outstanding stock worth more than $24 million, the firm said.
Why The 4% Rule May Be Irrelevant Thanks for the clarification.
The
paper cited in the article is talking about all Personal
Retirement Assets (PRAs), which it says "include[s] 401(k)s, IRAs, Keoghs, and similar plans." So while RMDs begin at age 70½, withdrawals are not required for Roth IRAs and 401(k)s and 403(b)s at your current employer.
From that paper:
Figure 5-1 pools data on households of various ages in all cohorts to summarize the average patterns of withdrawals at different ages. It shows that the average percentage of households who own a PRA who make a withdrawal increases from 11.4 percent at age 60 to 24.8 percent by age 69. This percentage jumps to over 60 percent by age 71, when the age of the household head exceeds the age at which RMDs must begin.
Why The 4% Rule May Be Irrelevant @msf- Yes, it's definitely a theoretically decent alternative approach. To me, though, the weakness lies in the statement (from your article):
"secure in knowing that all payments beyond that point will be covered by the longevity annuity
and backed by the longevity insurance company."
I may be unduly cynical, but I have very limited faith in the desire of insurance companies to stay in any business if things go wrong and the future doesn't unfold according to their expectations. The fact that our long-term health care insurance, originally carried by General Electric, has been sold several times because GE and subsequent carriers didn't see enough profit potential makes me very uneasy about any insurance companies long-term annuity promises.
ADD:I continued to read the article (it's pretty lengthy) after posting the above comments, and can recommend that it's well worth your time to do so. It gives a fairly balanced and quite interesting analysis of various alternative
retirement schemes, and honestly concedes that in some cases an equity-based
retirement approach may give superior long-term results.
Why The 4% Rule May Be Irrelevant Hi Guys,
The correctness and applicability of the 4% drawdown rule is situational dependent. What is the asset allocation distribution? What is the expected future annual returns? How solid is the economy? An endless array of questions and uncertainties exist.
When uncertainties exist, Monte Carlo codes rise to the top of candidate tools to explore these uncertainties. Given my earlier posts, this suggestion likely surprises no one. Here is a Link that identifies 3 candidate Monte Carlo codes that are available on the Internet:
https://www.caniretireyet.com/the-3-best-free-retirement-calculators/The author rated 3 codes as best from the many he tested. He highlights the pros and cons of each code.
You get to pick the tool that you find most attractive for your purposes. These tools are all fast, free, and easy to use. Give them a try. What-if scenarios are easy to do, and will yield insights into what uncertainties greatly influence successful outcomes. Good luck to all.
Best Wishes
Why The 4% Rule May Be Irrelevant
Suze Orman Says You Need $5 million To Retire — Which Is Nonsense Okay...wait...
...oh darn. I was expecting to see a pig flying outside my window
Now I don't think I need to opine what I think about people like Suze Orman. However, regardless of the dollar amounts she is quoting, I can't find fault with what she is saying at all.
Yeah, that's right. If it takes $5M, most people wouldn't be able to retire. Most people shouldn't retire unless they have that kind of money. Your Truly is never going to retire unless he is forced into it by employer or his own personal circumstance. It's not about money can't buy you happiness. It's about I'm going to freakin' try to do whatever I can to see if my kids can buy my grandkids into Harvard. I'm not ashamed to say I'm not going to hold it against either my kids or grandkids as long as they do it legally. You know why? Once someone freakin' gets into Harvard, then their progeny never has to do it again.
I stopped making plans for retirement. That Europe trip, nah...I don't even want to go anymore. You tell me I'll give you $1M and a month off I'll say, thank you for that $1M and I'll work the month, and you better make sure I earn salary for that month.
I'm really like a robot right now. As long as my battery holds charge, I'll keep working. I don't need a vacation (or maybe it's because I return more tired from vacation than before I left for vacation). I don't need to re-charge my batteries. I've given myself a psychological lobotomy so I don't have to worry about getting depressed. More importantly, I've finally found a way - literally 3 or 4 weeks back - to not give a FF about anyone, to feel insulted, or humiliated, or threatened, or anything. I just do what I have to do and not just for as long as I need to, but forever.
Suze Orman, I'll tell you when I have $5M dollars. Don't you die before I get there. Not because I can tell you I can retire. No. To tell YOU to retire.
Suze Orman Says You Need $5 million To Retire — Which Is Nonsense Picking a number like this is ridiculous, and she knows it. There are way too many variables when it comes to retirement finances, no matter what the age. Yes, some people will be lucky and never have to worry. But most of us are not in that elite group (including Suze Sells-A-Lot). Debt servicing is perhaps the biggest issue to resolve BEFORE retirement...pay off the mortgage and all consumer debt. This gives you a much better handle on cash flow needs. Social Security benefits, any pensions, potential income from 401k, IRAs, and other savings can help reduce the need for a huge nest egg. A competent fee-only planner can ask the right questions, answer your questions, and show you how all of this looks, the good and the bad.
M*: 3 Retirement Saver Portfolios For Minimalists
M*: 3 Retirement Saver Portfolios For Minimalists FYI: Ugh, busy--crazy busy!"
"Our schedules are just nuts right now."
"We have to get together--it’s been forever!"
If you’re a working person--and especially if you’re a working person with young children--it’s a good bet that any brief text or email exchanges with friends have included some variation of those words. You’re scrambling to meet your commitments and squeeze in time for family and friends. If you have aging parents, you may be doubly crunched for time.
Regards,.
Ted A.K.A. Night Owl
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/920725/3-retirement-saver-portfolios-for-minimalists.html
Target-date fund strategies rise in Popularity “My error. I was mistaken: TRRIX (not TRRAX) did even better than you remembered: -18.39% in 2008. Up 22.07% in 2009, for a combined 2 year total return of -0.38%. So just standing pat would have broken even with this fund. TRRAX (target date 2010) gained 27.95% in 2009, for a combined 2 year total return of -6.23%.
“
@msf - I did not know you were capable of error. :) Thanks for continuing to check this out and for getting back with the correct numbers.
Once ‘08 returns dropped from the current prospectuses (after 10 years) I lost track. That was something I always looked at for every fund I owned (or considered owning) until it got harder to do. An easy error to make. TRRIX is different from their other
retirement funds in that it bears no date, nor does it follow a glide slope. As such, it’s not a target date fund.
Anything near 20% is still a steep loss for TRRIX.
Thanks.
Target-date fund strategies rise in Popularity I thought the linked article from
@JohnN good - but pretty rudimentary.
On a different (I hope related) note, a slick 30-minute TV
infomercial - from one of those
free dinner annuity peddlers provides occassional comedic relief Sunday mornings (especially if you missed SNL Saturday night). Always interesting observing their various scare tactics designed to dissuade folks from investing in mutual funds. Lots of big impressive looking charts. They seem to prey on poorly informed seniors and those nearing
retirement.
The guy today was focused on frightening people away from mutual funds (and Target Date
Retirement funds in particular) by highlighting the performance of American Funds Target Date 2010 REATX during 2008 (hardly a representative year). He claims it lost 28% in 2008 despite having only 38% in equities and over 60% in bonds (75% of them rated A or higher).
Can’t confirm his numbers. I’m surprised if REATX actually lost that much. However, in 2008 those invested in it would likely have been working (and importantly
still contributing) and at least 2 years from
retirement. For comparison, Price’s TRRIX runs a similar 40 / 60 allocation and lost around 20% in ‘08. What these hucksters did not mention was that 2009 was a strong up year. Likely REATX recouped most (not all) of that 2008 loss.
Obviously if you want to frighten folks away from target date
retirement funds, highlighting the worst stock market / financial year out of the past 30 or 40 is the way to do it.
wife's 403b Nice... Will look into it.. May add for mama retirement portfolio