@MJG - Thanks for the link. I feared it was some
MonteCarlo sim - but it isn’t. :) Let’s folks imput different allocations to many different classes of equities, bonds, cash etc. and see how they performed over specified time frames. Should be of interest to many.
If possible, some of us “
seniors“ should by now be able to do our own
back-testing. I ditched my fee-based 403B “advisor” (skimming 4+% off contributions) in ‘95. Switched to TRP and took charge. I’ve got some rough recollections of my investment history from ‘95-‘98. After ‘98, when I retired, I began keeping detailed records. I know how I was invested each year and what the % of gain or loss was. The plan changes little - but I’m aware of when allocation changes (mostly age-related) occurred. That’s my
back-testing - detailed records spanning nearly a quarter century.
I know what my IRAs were worth in ‘98. I also know I’ve now withdrawn considerably more dollars over those years than the beginning balance. And I know that I currently have nearly
double the amount invested that I started with. (Withdrawals didn’t begin until 5-7 years into
retirement.) Over the first 7-8 years investments compounded at around 7% yearly - but less in recent years. Except for 2008 when I lost 20% (followed by +28% the next year), I can’t recall another down year of more than 5 or 6%. I don’t consider these returns very good relative to others. I’ve always been very risk averse.
Of course, a dollar today isn’t worth what it was in ‘98. Assuming a 50% decrease in purchasing power over those 21 years, I’m at about where I was when I retired. One source estimates inflation averaging slightly above 3% over a 20 year time-frame with prices roughly doubling over that time. (Can’t vouch for its accuracy.)
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Long_Term_Inflation.aspMaybe what I’m saying here relates mostly to the value of keeping good records. No attempt to tout returns. As I said, many will have done much better. (I’m in envy of a number of others on the board. :) )
Regards
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Footnote - Being conservatively positioned allows me to remain 100% invested all the time in a wide variety of fund types, including a modicum of cash. Mention that because many maintain multi-year cash reserves separate from their “investments” and exclude that cash when calculating returns. May result in
apples-to-oranges comparisons.