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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    Totally agree that health care will consumer much larger part of our retirement resources. We still have over 15 years fom retirement. In the meantime, we maintain an active lifestyle, routine exercising (swimming and walking), and eating healthy.
  • M*: Can You Accumulate $1 Million Saving $14 per Day?
    FYI: Saturday's ABC World News aired an investment snippet on how Americans should prepare for retirement. The feature lasted just under a minute and a half.
    Consequently, there was no time to explain the numbers. Such are mass communications, and you will find no protest from me. This column skips plenty of details itself. However, I do have enough room to explore the segment's most dramatic claim: That somebody who begins investing at age 23 can retire with $1 million by investing $14 daily into a "low-cost S&P 500 fund."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/880879/can-you-accumulate-1-million-saving-14-per-day.html
    ABC News Article:
    https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=86992&page=1
  • M*: How Our T. Rowe Price Retirement Saver Portfolios Have Performed: Christine vs. Linkster
    Thanks again @davidmoran
    Re tutorial (noun) - Cambridge Dictionary
    1. a period of study with a tutor involving one student or a small group
    2. a period of study with a tutor and a small group of students
    3. IT a document or website on a computer that shows you how to use a product in a series of easy stages:
    Albeit, you used the adverb form of the word (which is rarely used). So to tie things together:
    tutorially: in the manner of a tutorial (Collins Dictionary)
    Here’s how M* describes Ms. Benz’s role and purpose: “Morningstar director of personal finance Christine Benz has developed a series of hypothetical portfolios for savers and retirees. These portfolios are offered as general examples for investors' reference. These portfolios are not personalized recommendations, nor are they investable products offered by Morningstar.”
    Hope I’m not nit-picking. Just trying to understand why I should be particularly interested in her advice over, say, someone like Ol’Skeet here who does a great job explaining his long standing bucket approach or the folks at T. Rowe Price who present models by example. (ie - I can take apart a given target date retirement fund designed by them and visualize how much they allocate to different funds or sectors.) I’m not saying Christine Benz’s is bad advice. Just asking why she deserves more credence than someone else who’s equally (possibly more) experienced?
    Nothing in Benz’s listed educational background (below) suggests any type of financial training or certification. All I see there is political science and East European history. Also, I’ve never thought of M* as an advisory firm. Always thought their forte was in statistical analysis of fund data. (But, I’ll admit to rarely looking at them.)
    Christine Benz’s Experience (Linkedin) https://www.linkedin.com/in/christine-benz-b83b523/
    Director of Personal Finance
    Morningstar, Inc.
    2008 – Present (10 years)
    Director of Mutual Fund Analysis
    Morningstar, Inc.
    February 2006 – March 2008 (2 years 2 months)
    Education
    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
    BA, Political Science, Russian and East European Studies
    Lyons Township High School
    From Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Christine-Benz/e/B002PICOLS
    “Christine (Benz) holds a bachelor's degree in political science and Russian/East European studies from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. She lives in the Chicago suburbs with her husband, Greg. She is an avid cook, a political junkie, and a long-suffering Chicago Cubs fan.”
  • M*: How Our T. Rowe Price Retirement Saver Portfolios Have Performed: Christine vs. Linkster
    FYI: (Christine Benz's Aggressive T. Rowe Price Retirement Saver Portfolio
    Anticipated Time Horizon to Retirement: 40 years )
    20%: T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX)
    15%: T. Rowe Price Equity Index 500 (PREIX)
    10%: T. Rowe Price New America Growth (PRWAX)
    10%: T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Value (PRSVX)
    35%: T. Rowe Price Overseas Stock
    5%: T. Rowe Price New Income (PRCIX)
    5%: T. Rowe Price Real Assets (PRAFX)
    Performance
    3-Year Annualized Return: 11.93
    ( The Linkster's Aggressive T. Rowe Price Retirement Saver Portfolio
    Anticipated Time Horizon to Retirement: 40 years )
    20%: T. Rowe Price New America Growth (PRWAX)
    20% T. Rowe Price Equity Index 500 (PREIX)
    20% T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund (PRGTX)
    20% T.Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund (PRHSX)
    20% T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund (TRBCX)
    Performance
    3-Year Annualized Return: 19.82
    The Entire Article:
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/880485/how-our-t-rowe-price-retirement-saver-portfolios-h.html
  • Retirement Planning In High School? It’s Never Too Early, Experts Say
    FYI: It might seem odd to open a retirement account for a high school student.
    But teenagers can get a big head start on long-term savings, financial advisers say, by stashing some of their earnings in a Roth individual retirement account.
    Now is a good time to talk with teenagers about long-term savings using a Roth I.R.A. because they may have earned money from summer jobs, said Patricia A. Seaman, a spokeswoman for the National Endowment for Financial Education, a nonprofit organization that promotes financial literacy.
    Teenagers can benefit from tax-free growth of investments in a Roth account years before they have the opportunity to contribute to a workplace retirement plan, Ms. Seaman said. And five decades of growth allows plenty of time to ride out market swings.
    “The earlier you start,” Ms. Seaman said, “the more the time value of money works for you.”
    A Roth I.R.A. for someone under 18 must be opened and managed by an adult custodian, like a parent or grandparent. The teenager must have earned income, whether from a formal job or from gigs like babysitting and lawn mowing. Children can contribute their total annual earnings up to $5,500.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/your-money/roth-ira-retirement-teenagers.html
  • Bond Funds
    CBLDX is now on several platforms - such as Schwab, Fidelity, TD, etc.
    At Fido it's shown as a TF fund, $250k minimum (same for taxable and retirement).
  • 10 Funds That Returned 50% Or More This Past Year
    Hi @bee, My portfolio is comprised through many years of investing and there are guidelines in place but no hard rules. For instance, the two largest fund holdings are also my oldest at about six percent each (FKINX & AMECX). I decided ... enough is enough ... and, I don't want to keep expanding these two funds so I split some off and open other funds with these being my seed funds for the others. With new money, some gift and inheritance transfers, and taking what the existing funds generated I built what you see. With this I'm thinking new positions to complement the core. Also, a good amount of what you see is also held in taxable accounts. So, I have to consider the tax angle as well.
    An exapmle. Currently, NEWFX is the largest position in it's sleeve so I'm thinking of splitting some of it into another fund (DWGAX) through a nav exchange process. This will rebalace NEWFX's sleeve while adding some diverfication to the sleeve that will hold DWGAX. As you can see I have another fund under review for a nav exchange buy (INUTX). So, this is an on going process and done when I felt warranted. Again, gudelines but no hard rules. Generally, no fund starts at less than 5% of its sleeve and becomes no more than 60%. For instance AOFAX is currently 15% of its sleeve, NDVAX 15% and PMDAX 70%. When AOFAX gets built AOFAX is tatgeted to become 20%, NDVAX 20% & PMDAX 60%. PMDAX is held in a taxable account and has been a long term position and through the years of growth become an outsized position within its sleeve. The strategy is not to sell any of PMDAX but to grow the other positions to balance the sleeve with some more buys and natural growth as they should grow faster than PMDAX.
    That is why it is important to Xray what you have before starting to tweak.
    The below outlines the process and was not posted with the portfolio. Again, no hard rules just guidelines about my sleeve management system.
    Old_Skeet's Sleeve Management System
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better help manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consist of two sleeves ... a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. And, there is the growth area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five slleves ... a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, a specialty/theme sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. Each sleeve (in most cases) consist of three to nine funds with the size and weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held along with their amounts. By using the sleeve system I can get a better picutre of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly. My positions and sleeves can be adjusted from time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets through using my market barometer and equity weighting matrix. The matrix is driven by the barometer. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the cash area to meet the portfolio's disbursements (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the cash area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place.
    See the portfolio for asset allocation ranges for each area. Sleeve and fund weightings are known but not listed.
  • 7 bear market funds
    @bee, great stuff on max drawdown and recovery time. I'm a believer in having a cash bucket in retirement to ride out a recession. I've thought 3-4 years expenses would be good, but you are using actual data that suggests 2 years expenses in a cash bucket is likely sufficient. More real data that suggests bear market funds are not needed or even detrimental to a portfolio.
  • 7 bear market funds
    @bee, I am not sure I will go the way of reverse mortgage in retirement. My wife joke about sell the house, move into out 10 year old trailer and live on the driveway of our kids house. We sure spent enough to put them through college and help them along on their career paths.
  • 7 bear market funds
    @Hank, what alternative funds are you invested in? Were they around in 2008-early 9 for the great recession so that they have a performance tract record during the worst of economic times? Just curious how they performed over that stretch compared to a conservative balanced fund.
    Hi Mike - Fair enough.
    Here’s the answer to your question: QVOPX 3-4% of assets, TMSRX 6-7%
    QVOPX, lost 20% in 2008. In comparison, Price’s 40/60 balanced retirement fund lost 18%. What should be rememberd is that interest rates were probably higher back than, so bonds helped TRRIX more than they might in a similar crisis today. QVOPX (and Oppenheimer generally) really stunk up the joint during ‘07-‘09. They were overly-aggressive in many conservative offerings. Cleaned house afterward. Michelle Borre has been manager of QVOPX since 2011, and by everything I can read and research, she’s a solid manager who doesn’t take a lot of risk. I’m comfortable with a small sliver invested in the fund. (I’ve held class A shares there since the mid-90s.)
    TMSRX, is brand new. David has made a few comments re it in his commentaries. To wit, TRP’s literature bills it more as an alternative income fund. It’s best compared to RPSIX in my opinion. And that’s about where Price places it on their risk scale. RPSIX lost 9.4% in 2008. Obviously there are no figures from ‘08 for the new fund. FWIW, the two are about tied YTD - each having lost approximately 1% (but TMSRX has only been around since March).
    In no way am I recommending any of these mentioned funds to anyone else. It is in my opinion only a treacherous market in both bonds and equities. I’d say “Pick your own poison.” (But if you want to hear the bull case, there are a number of presenters on the board, among them @Ted.) :)
    Out for the rest of the day. Hope I’ve addressed. your questions adequately,
    Regards
  • 7 bear market funds
    @Hank, what alternative funds are you invested in? Were they around in 2008-early 9 for the great recession so that they have a performance tract record during the worst of economic times? Just curious how they performed over that stretch compared to a conservative balanced fund. Again, just my opinion, but alternative funds offer nothing that a good equity/bond balanced fund can offer, including safe-guarding your down side risk in retirement. Compare your alternatives for risk-return to a couple pretty conservative balanced funds like GLRBX or BERIX. These 2 funds lost only 5.5 and 10.2% in 2008 respectively, while averaging returns over the last 10 years of close to 6 and 7%.
    Not trying to change your mind or comfort zone, just saying, in my opinion alternative is more a marketing gimmick than a useful portfolio add at any stage of life. Bear market funds being the worst choice of the group.
  • 7 bear market funds
    Hi Folks - I’m willing to allocate a small amount to alternative funds in the current exuberant market (currently 10%). And an even smaller amount to a gold fund (1-2%), which is another form of alternative investment. But please understand (1) I’m deep into the retirement / draw-down years and (2) I probably have accumulated enough $$ to last my remaining lifetime.
    What some don’t grasp is that at a very advanced age it takes just 1 devastating year to wipe out 25-50% of one’s lifetime savings. While (as many like to point out) the odds of such an event are relatively small (you odds-makers can calculate the likelihood), if it happens to someone 75 or older it’s unlikely they’ll recover that sum in their lifetime. So you need to understand that some old farts here are being extra cautious in the prevailing climate. Going to all-cash doesn’t sound like any fun. And I think one can still pull 2, 3 or even 4% a year better than a money market or CD over shorter periods - even conservatively positioned. As I’ve often pointed out, those under 60 (and @Ted still thinks he is) probably should be investing in good plain vanilla low-fee growth funds.
    The funds in JohnN’s post appear to be bear market funds. That’s 1 type of alternative - but by no means the entire domain. And a bear-fund to me is suicidal unless you really can foresee the future. Hussman is the best advertisement for an alternative fund which attempted to foresee the future and fell into the bear trap. HSGFX has sported dismal returns since inception. John H’s crystal ball clearly was defective. Maybe Amazon will take it back.
  • 7 bear market funds
    Discussion on Reverse mortgages as a way to handle "seqeunce of return risk" in retirement:
    Reverse Mortgages
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    Fidelity even offers some of these funds with lower mins in taxable accounts, like EVBIX. Though in general, as you wrote, Fidelity offers the lower minimums only in retirement accounts.
    Fidelity EVBIX page:
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fees-and-prices/277905220?type=o-NavBar
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    Mostly lurking for the past few years. Thanks for all the fund discussions. The rest not so much.
    In addition to using Vanguard ( for the lower Pimco Institutional hurdle), one could check Fidelity institutional minimums if you have a retirement account with Fidelity.
    There are lower institutional minimums for/from some fund families.(EVBIX,
    DGMIX, RAIIX, QUSIX,etc.) I suspect there are other funds/families.
  • PRWCX disappoints today

    MAPOX is great but a bit too conservative for me right now mid-career. I see it kind of like VWINX in terms of boring stability ... down the road when I retire, if MAPOX continues to perform, I definitely see it playing a role in my retirement allocations.
    Each year I add a large slug to PRWCX the day it trades ex-distribution in December. But I do wish it paid out semi-annually so I could accumulate more shares if volatility cooperates ... but whatever. Still a fantastic fund and one of my top performers. Wish I had also started a position in my Roth when I bought it for taxable, though. :/
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    My investments are split about 50-50 between Schwab and Vanguard. Sort of accidental, related to retirement accounts at the two main places where I worked. Both are fine, but if I ever consolidate I'll go with Schwab. I like their web site better overall.
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    I would add Commandment #11 -- Exercise.
    Perhaps that should be #1.
    (I'll grant that the focus of the article's "comfortable" retirement was financial issues. But not much else matters without good health.)
    David
    + 1 Too bad most don’t worry about their health until it is too late.
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    I would add Commandment #11 -- Exercise.
    Perhaps that should be #1.
    (I'll grant that the focus of the article's "comfortable" retirement was financial issues. But not much else matters without good health.)
    David
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    FYI: We’re faced with a host of thorny retirement issues: Keep Social Security solvent. Make Medicare affordable. Many Americans aren’t saving enough. They want to retire earlier than they can reasonably afford. They’re effectively financially illiterate.
    But in the end, you don’t need to worry about all Americans. Instead, what you need to worry about is you.
    Want a comfortable retirement? Here are my 10 commandments:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-commandments-of-retirement-2018-08-21/print