For me ARTKX has been a core international fund for last several years. I tempted to split it across ARTKX and FMIJX in the 1-2 years, but controlled that urge. I bought VWIGX in my daughter's Education IRA a few years ago and it made good money in that account, and I added Vanguard International Dividend Growth index in my retirement account a few months ago.
SFGIX, ARTWX and GPEOX have been my EM funds. Though, sometimes I tempt to sell one of them and instead play with EM regions (Latin America, Asia and Emerging Euro) with TRow Price funds for a small part of my portfolio.

Hi msf, Hi Guys,
Thank you all for reading my comments on Mr. Bengen and Monte Carlo retirement tools. My goal was not to tout Mr. Bengen, but much more importantly, to encourage you Guys to try a powerful Monte Carlo simulation for planning purposes.
If Bengen "concluded that a 4% drawdown rate resulted in certain survival", he was wrong. In just a few minutes I did simulations on a code, that I often recommend (Portfolio Visualizer), to estimate portfolio survival odds for drawdowns being discussed. These codes do thousands of what-if cases and almost never find a 100% survival likelihood except for uninteresting extreme cases given typical uncertainties in market annual outcomes.
I did two sets of calculations: one maximized risk by assuming a 100% US equity portfolio, and a second set that was more balanced by assuming a 50/10/40 portfolio of US equity, International equity, and US bond asset allocations. I used historical market returns in my calculations.
For drawdowns of 4.0%, 4.5%, and 5.0%, the all equity portfolio failed 14%, 18%, and 26% of the time for a 30 year test period. For the same drawdowns, the more balanced portfolio only failed to survive 3%, 6%, and 12% of the time, respectively. Diversification works as a form of portfolio survival protection. These calculations only took several minutes to complete. They demonstrate the power and usefulness of Monte Carlo simulations. Please take advantage of this resource for your own retirement planning purposes.
When doing thousands of simulations with some statistical distribution of outcomes, some failures are often projected. An investor must decide what portfolio failure rate is acceptable. In my case, my target was to reduce failure rates to under 5%. Given the uncertainties of the marketplace some risk always exists. The goal is to construct a portfolio that projects a rare failure probability given the target drawdown schedule.
Even with careful planning, crap happens. If the market rewards turn sour, the drawdown schedule should be a candidate for adjustment. Flexibility improves survival odds.
Given the Monte Carlo tools that can be easily accessed, you guys can do a better job than Mr. Bengen in terms of projecting future probable outcomes. Good luck. Take time to explore this tool and you will reduce your need for luck.
Best Wishes

" A fellow named Bill Bengen initially used that [Monte Carlo] calculation discipline when he concluded that a 4% annual drawdown rate resulted in high portfolio survival odds for an extended retirement period."
Not exactly. He concluded that a 4% drawdown rate resulted in certain survival, not merely a high probability of survival: "no client enjoys less than about 35 years before his retirement money is used up." Survival is typically taken in financial publications to mean lasting 30 years.
More importantly, for the most part he used actual not statistical data. He looked at rolling 50 year periods, starting with 1926 (i.e. 1926-1976) and ending with the 50 year period 1976-2016. Monte Carlo had nothing to do with this.
You may well ask: what "actual" data did he use for years that were in his future (his paper was published in 1994)? Well here he did use statistical data. But of the simplest kind, again no Monte Carlo simulation. He merely "extrapolated the missing years at the average return rates of 10.3 percent for stocks, 5.2 percent for bonds, and 3.0 percent for inflation - a concession to the 'averaging' approach, but one that was unavoidable."
Bengen used actual returns over multiyear spans (i.e. he did not assume that year-to-year returns were random and independent). He filled in missing data by using constant annual returns (i.e. no variation of returns). Everything Monte Carlo is not.
Quotes are from Bengen's original paper, cited in the NYTimes article linked to by MJG. See Figure 1(b) in that paper for how many years a 4% drawdown rate would last if started in any year from 1926 to 1976.

I have found what has worked well for me and my family over the past years was to take a sum equal to no more than one half of the five year average return of the portfolios. For me, this currently computes to a little more than 4.75%. In this way principal grows over time. This is how I ran my parents money in their retirment years and now run mine. And, this is how I am schooling my son to continue to run things when he takes over the management of mine and my wife's assets. If the full factor (currently 4.75%) is not needed it can simply be invested or accrued for times a greater sum might be needed.
Think about it ... Because, for those that have reached critical mass, it works. The secret is to control spending by living within ones means. For those living in retirement that have not reached critical mass times ahead could indeed become most difficult.

Hi Guys,
You all know I'm forever suggesting Monte Carlo analyses when addressing the retirement decision. It works. But that's not just me talking. The financial planning industry has been talking that same talk for at least several decades. A fellow named Bill Bengen initially used that calculation discipline when he concluded that a 4% annual drawdown rate resulted in high portfolio survival odds for an extended retirement period. Here is a Link that updates some of his initial thinking on this matter:
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/your-money/some-new-math-for-the-4-percent-retirement-rule.html
Enjoy! Note that Mr. Bengen now feels that a more generous 4.5% drawdown rate is portfolio survival safe. With a little more attention to market conditions, more recent studies are currently suggesting that a 5% drawdown results in acceptable portfolio survival odds. However, note that these are just statistical studies with many assumptions embedded in the analyses so be cautious. Risk at the 5% drawdown schedule must be higher than at the 4% level. That's obvious. The final decision is always yours alone. It must include your comfort level; your sleeping well each and every night. Take care. Sleep well.
Best Regards

Hi guys!
I will say only this: in our retirement package, you had to be 55 with 10 years of employment. Also, it was not offered to office people. Also, not to engineering personnel. At our plant (we have 20 worldwide), this is the second time in 10 years they have done this with us. Other plants have had packages also, so it must be something they can do at their discretion to pare down production as necessary. 'Cause we're non-union? Who knows?
God bless
the Pudd

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1496315/000116204417000567/grandprixfundsupplement.htm
497 1 grandprixfundsupplement.htm
GRAND PRIX INVESTORS TRUST
(the “Trust”)
566 West Lancaster Blvd., Suite #1
Lancaster, CA 93534
GRAND PRIX INVESTORS FUND
Supplement dated June 29, 2017 to the Grand Prix Investors Fund’s Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated December 1, 2017
______________________________________________________________________
The Board of Trustees of Grand Prix Investors Trust (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of the Grand Prix Investors Fund (the “Fund”) and its shareholders to close the Fund effective July 28, 2017 (“Liquidation Date”).
Effective immediately, the Grand Prix Investors Fund will not accept any new investments, and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Grand Prix Investors Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash equivalents until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
Accordingly, the prospectus has been amended:
References to Grand Prix Investors Fund. All references to the Fund in the Trust’s Registration Statement are deleted effective as of June 29, 2017.
Suspension of Sales. Effective immediately, the Fund will no longer accept orders to buy shares of the Fund from any new investors or existing shareholders.
Prior to July 28, 2017, you may redeem your investment in the Fund, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT EXCHANGED OR REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE GRAND PRIX INVESTORS FUND PRIOR TO JULY 28, 2017 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor or the Fund at 1‐800‐453-6556.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016, which provides information that you should know about the Grand Prix Investors Fund, and should be retained for future reference. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund at 1‐ 800‐453-6556.
______________________________________________________________________
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
#

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527428/000158064217003629/arrowcommodity_497e.htm
497 1 arrowcommodity_497e.htm 497
ARROW COMMODITY STRATEGY FUND
CLASS A SHARES: CSFFX
CLASS C SHARES: CSFTX
INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES: CSFNX
(a series of Arrow Investments Trust)
Supplement dated June 27, 2017 to
the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016
The Board of Trustees of Arrow Investments Trust (the “Board”) has determined, based on the recommendation of the Fund’s adviser, that, with respect to the Arrow Commodity Strategy Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Arrow Investments Trust, it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on July 28, 2017.
Effective June 28, 2017, the Fund will not accept any purchases and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund may begin liquidating its portfolio and may invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
After June 28, 2017 and prior to July 28, 2017, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. No redemption fee or contingent deferred sales load will be charged on any redemption or exchange. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
Arrow Investment Advisors, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, serves as investment adviser to several other mutual funds in the Trust. As discussed in the Fund’s prospectus, you may exchange your Fund shares for shares of the same Class of another fund in the fund complex advised by Arrow Investment Advisors, LLC (an “Arrow Fund”). Exchanges are made at net asset value. Except as stated herein, exchanges are subject to the terms applicable to purchases of an Arrow Fund’s shares as set forth in the applicable fund’s prospectus. An exchange of Fund shares to another Arrow Fund will be treated as a sale for federal income tax purposes.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO JULY 28, 2017 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUNDS AT 1-877-277-6933.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
This Supplement and the existing Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-877-277-6933.

New Century Capital Portfolio
New Century Balanced Portfolio
New Century International Portfolio
New Century Alternative Strategies Portfolio
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/838802/000139834417007945/fp0026390_497.htm
497 1 fp0026390_497.htm NEW CENTURY PORTFOLIOS - 497E
Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
1933 Act File No. 33-24041
1940 Act File No. 811-5646
NEW CENTURY PORTFOLIOS
(the “Trust”)
Supplement dated June 26, 2017 to the Trust’s
Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated March 1, 2017
On June 15, 2017, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Trust, based upon the recommendation of Weston Financial Group, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Trust, and having considered the interests of the shareholders of the Trust, voted to recommend that the shareholders adopt an Agreement and Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) to close and liquidate the Trust. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interest of the Trust and its shareholders that the Trust be closed and liquidated effective as of the close of business on September 29, 2017. The Trust has called a special meeting of shareholders to be held in the offices of the Trust at 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday, August 22, 2017, to vote on the proposed Plan.
The Board recommends approval of the proposed Plan, which determines the manner in which the Trust will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Trust’s liquidation, the Trust will be closed to new purchases effective as of the close of business on June 30, 2017. However, (i) any dividends or distributions declared to shareholders of the Trust after June 30, 2017, and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on September 29, 2017 will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Trust unless a shareholder has requested that such distributions be paid in cash, and (ii) investments received from existing Automatic Investment Programs (an “AIP”) will be accepted by the Trust through September 1, 2017. If the Plan is approved at the special shareholders meeting, shareholders with an AIP should arrange to direct their contributions to another investment alternative of their choosing. Results of the special meeting of shareholders will be posted on the Trust’s website on August 23, 2017 at www.newcenturyportfolios.com.
Although the Trust will be closed to new purchases as of June 30, 2017, you may redeem your shares of the Trust at any time as provided in the Prospectus. Please note, however, that if the Plan is approved, the Trust will be liquidating and distributing its assets no later than the close of business on September 29, 2017. Redemption requests received immediately preceding the September 29th liquidation may be honored by the delivery of the liquidation proceeds to the shareholder.
Pursuant to the Plan, if the Trust has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on September 29, 2017, the effective time of the liquidation, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Trust as of September 29, 2017, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of Trust shares, liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
All routine expenses incurred in connection with the usual and customary operations of the Trust (including brokerage commissions associated with the sale of portfolio securities) will be charged to the Trust, however, expenses incurred in connection with the consideration and approval of the proposed Plan and expenses outstanding on and after the time of liquidation will be paid by the Adviser.
Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.

FYI: Los Angeles finance giant Capital Group manages dozens of mutual funds, all of them run by human beings who pick individual stocks and bonds to buy or sell.
And the vast majority of the assets of the company’s employee retirement savings plan is invested in those same funds.
Now, a former Capital Group worker is suing the firm, alleging it violated federal retirement savings rules by pushing workers into its own funds rather than offering investments from outside firms that charge lower fees.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-capital-group-retirement-20170622-story.html

“There are no easy solutions when investing in an overvalued market. Every strategy has its flaws. The trick for investors in this situation is to find a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens in the markets. No one can predict the future, but you can plan how you will react under different scenarios.”
My emphasis.
Roughly 10,000 people retire each day – or roughly 3,650,000 each year.
My guess is that >90% of them are unaware of the market’s Sequence of Returns.

Situation Assumption -
Assume that it’s June and that your friend (age 65) is about to retire at the end of the year with a portfolio of $600,000. (The actual amount is anything he believes is sufficient to be adequate for his retirement.) His mortgage is paid and he has $3,000 in credit card debt.
He has a 60/40 or 50/50 allocation of vanilla mutual funds in a 401k and $10,000 in cash. He has booked a cruise in January for his family and plans to buy a new car that he will keep for the next ten years.
The market starts to fall dramatically. By November it’s down 25% and sliding.
He asks your advice.
Based upon “find a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens in the market”, what do you tell him?

FYI: (This is a follow-up to this morning's article.)
China’s domestic equities will join MSCI Inc.’s benchmark indexes, a landmark step in the nation’s integration with the global financial system.
The decision, announced by the New York-based index compiler on Tuesday, will give China’s $6.9 trillion stock market a bigger role in everything from exchange-traded funds to 401(k) retirement plans. It also advances President Xi Jinping’s ambitions to make the yuan a global currency.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2017-06-20/china-stocks-win-msci-entry-as-6-9-trillion-market-goes-global

I held it from 2006 till in taxable account till I bought home in 2014. Then I bought it in Retirement account, but sold as I already had FPACX in one of my retirements accounts. Regret that decision.
I used to have PRWCX, OAKBX, and ARTKX in taxable account. Pretty all of them from 2006 in various percentages as part of my safer taxable portfolio, as I know I need this money in future for home. All of them made me good money.

Retirement acct, therefore longer term: MPGFX Mairs & Power Growth Fund.
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/mpgfx/quote.html

FWIW it have 10% of my net worth in PCI/PDI (49yo) and my mother's account has 13% in PONDX/PIMIX(retiree). A vote of confidence in the PIMCO team. Both tax deferred IRA accounts although she is taking RMDs.
The funds mentioned will likely kick off large amounts of income so there is a tax hit to consider. Or not, depending on your situation/state. Being in NJ I have a TRowePrice NJ Muni bond fund to avoid taxes on non retirement accts. Have considered closed-end Muni bond funds too.
FWIW I also vote PONDX.

First of all, I'd think long and hard about how much you want to put in large growth at this point. The run has been magnificent and maybe it will continue for a while, but at some point it's going to end. It probably won't end nicely. For that reason, if I was making this decision for myself I would either dollar cost average making smaller investments now and larger ones once the market has corrected a decent amount or I would simply wait for a good correction so I don't risk spending years of retirement trying to catch up with where I started.
I don't know a whole lot about the funds you listed although NASDX is pretty straight forward. I'd at least do a little research on POGRX and AKREX. Primecap has an incredible record with it's various funds and this one is still open. Akre is also well-liked here although he hasn't been talked about much recently. Both have historically done better on a risk-adjusted basis than the average large growth fund, and M* says Akre incurs below average risk. Depending on how comfortable you are with volatility that might matter.

I would like to get everyone's thoughts and help choosing between the following large cap funds for my retirement account:
Parwx
Focpx
Nasdx
Fbgrx
Mseqx
Or any others funds I should consider.

Districtwanderer:
A couple things. I think your impulse to “cap” your contributions, and squirrel away surplus savings elsewhere is WISE. Employer plans are “captive” with the plan administrator and often limit your options.
You mentioned investing in rentals. I’ve not the ‘skill-set’ or interest to invest in real-estate directly. However, for those who do – meaning you invest sweat-equity along with your cash – I believe it can be very lucrative. A caveat: investing in real estate directly is like opening your business (real estate rentals IS a business!) So really acquaint yourselves with common problems – so you can avoid them. You may wish to consider joining a real-estate mentoring group to get a taste of what the possible pitfalls (and opportunities) are out there. A local group in my area is “lifestyles unlimited”, though I am certain there are many other such groups.
Even if you choose to NOT go the rental-investment route, I think it make sense to have tax-diversification for one’s savings if possible. That means have some in tax-deferred vehicles (401k, IRA), some in tax-free (Roth) and some in taxable. Taxable accounts, while taxable, have advantages:
- The Feds don’t penalize you for removing monies from taxable accounts. So, unlike IRAs and qualified plans, you are free to do with your money what you will, without “Uncle” putting roadblocks in your way. And for anyone with a moderate-or-higher amount of assets, it’s prudent to ‘self-custody’ some portion of one’s assets (IMO).
- Uncle Sam is agreeable to subsidizing investment losses which you realize (when the Bear returns) in taxable accounts. Not so in deferred accounts.
- I believe too, that there may be estate-planning considerations, especially involving trusts, which may make it attractive to have some of your assets outside a qualified plan. Estate-planning issues seem trivial at age 30; but as one gets older, they will grow in importance (assuming one has amassed a large estate).
- As you approach/enter retirement, (again, a long ways away for you) having monies in a taxable account (meaning you have already paid the taxes for all realized gains) provides one with ‘optionality’ of timing, as to when/where you will draw down your deferred accounts (which will be FULLY TAXABLE at the then-prevailing tax rate).
WOW! – Am running way long. But, bottom line, I think it’s a good idea to balance qualified-plan contributions with savings in taxable accounts. JMO. Good luck.

Hi Guys,
Note the huge differences in estimated percentage saving requirements from even the experts quoted in the Forbes reference that Davidrmoran provided. Those estimates reflect the uncertainties embedded in any and all such projections. Making any projection is extremely hazardous duty.
That's precisely why Monte Carlo codes are so useful. Thousands and thousands of individual scenarios can be quickly examined for any number of alternate assumptions. Since these assumptions are somewhat arbitrary, no definitive answer is ever really possible. What is generated is a feeling for the retirement survival sensitivity to the various postulates. Some will greatly impact survival rates; others will only weakly influence outcomes. That's good to know.
A flexible Monte Carlo code allows a user to explore uncertainties easily and quickly. The Monte Carlo code that I referenced earlier offers much flexibility with its numerous input options in terms of drawdown schedules and potential income returns based on a portfolio's asset allocations. All these are easily changed.
No simple rule of thumb reliably exists for drawdowns. The problem has far too many variables and return uncertainties that are timeframe and user specific.
I again encourage those interested in exploring retirement withdrawal rates and survival odds to consider using a Monte Carlo tool. You'll know much more after that experience.
In my case, I decided that a 95 % portfolio survival probability would be acceptable for a slightly conservative returns likelihood based on historical market records. I achieved my target goal after a few simulation what-ifs. Further Monte Carlo simulations provided me even more comfort when I discovered that rather modest reductions in my drawdowns after two negative return years would greatly improve my portfolio survival odds. It's always good to be flexible.
Best Wishes

12-24x salary, depending, and this after factoring in SS or equivalent.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbiggs/2016/07/21/how-much-retirement/#7500aa4a4d28
I am a big believer in cheap debt in retirement, but that is a minority take to many, and in any case we have been over this umpteen times. It's chiefly a sleep-at-night variable. If I at 70 could refi again at low rate for 40y, I would.