Okay, no charts, graphs or data support for this, but.....
Reported that the baby boomers (born 1946-1964) are retiring at a rate of 10,000/day (don't know if this counts weekends, too). Although also reported that only 1/3 saved enough for a decent retirement, one may suspect this bunch put away a lot of money via the normal investment vehicles of 401k, 403b, 457 and IRA's during the lots of jobs and money decades.
These folks will also hit the RMD stage, and start pulling money from these accounts, as well as some folks who will need to pull money before RMD.
So, my question is whether this money leaving the investment system will be offset by new investment money from the current working folks?
If there is more "out" money, versus "in" money, is the amount enough to affect the outcome of continued returns going forward, being 4%/annual or whatever.
What say you?
Thank you,
Catch

FYI: (Sorry St. Jack, the Linkster doesn't agree with your prediction of a 4% return on stocks going forward. As indicated below the historical averages since 1928 are higher, and I believe they will continue in the future at a least a 6% or higher.)
One of the biggest questions facing retirement investors right now is what to expect from stocks over the coming decade.
It matters the most if you're at or near retirement, since that number will affect your ability to finance a reasonable life after work.
That's the disconnect many long-term investors feel right now. After decades of double-digit returns from the stock market, some market observers — among them Vanguard Group Founder John Bogle — warn that stocks could fall short of expectations.
Bogle puts the number at 4%, a return many investors once associated with bonds, not stocks. He predicted lower returns in an interview published by CNBC.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-if-john-bogle-is-right-about-4-stock-returns-2017-04-25/print
S&P 500 Arithmetic Average:
1928-2016 11.42%
1967-2016 11.45%
2007-2016 8.65%
S&P 500 Geometric Average:
1928-2016 9.53%
1967-2016 10.09%
2007-2016 6.88%

Don't want to toot my horn, but MFOers heard it from me a while back that the NEA and its affiliates have done a horrible job of representing the retirement interests of teachers beyond the defined benefit pension. This article shows that conflicts of interest at the national level of the NEA are part of the problem. @bee participated in our discussions. Reform of this broken 403(b) system seems to be on almost no one's to-do list.

Another related article:
Tax Treatment of Roth IRA:
investopedia.com/articles/retirement/03/030403.asp

Hi @Old_Joe,
I hope you have a most enjoyable trip. My wife and I plan a fall trip to Panama and we have given trading authority on our investment and retirement accounts to our son ... just in case account action might be warranted ... plus he is also our Power of Attorney so he can handle other matters should it become necessary. I'm not wanting to sell down our taxable accounts before we travel out of the States because come tax time I'd be paying tax on the capital gains just to re-enter the market a bit later plus a good bit of our invstment worth is held in these accounts. The retirement accounts are a little different as we don't pay taxes until we take withdrwals. So selling out and then going back in could be done without capital gain taxes along with I'm thinking you have a certain period of time you can reinvest the sell proceeds commission free. Check with your broker first before doing this.
Have a great trip ...
Old_Skeet

FYI: In professional sports, players are supremely talented. Yet even all-stars play under coaches. It's the same for your children when it comes to personal finance, including their retirement planning down the road.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/retirement/7-steps-toward-financial-literacy-for-your-children/

Hi @Art,
My bad.
Retirement is going well and I have been at the coast over Easter with family and friends. Golf ... Teeing it up this afternoon with my golf league group of 25 years or so. At 69, I am still hitting from the white tees while some have moved up to the senior tees that are my junior. We shoot at points so once you have qualified from either the senior tees or white tees you've got to score plus to win, place or show. I'd rather shoot at less points and be on the white tees than more points and be on the senior tees.
Since, you named it (MSFBX) first ... you are now the big dog.
Skeet

Hey Old Skeet I mentioned MSFBX first. MSFAX is same fund. LOL. How's the golf game and retirement.

Hi Tony, I'll have to check out the last two indicators you mentioned - not familiar with them. I've kept it pretty simple on my end, just trying to avoid larger than the "normal" drawdowns in my fairly conservative retirement portfolio and picking spots here and there for buys with a decent probability of gains. -- AJ

Hi @golub1,
I have three hybrid sleeves and with this I just decided to post a description of my sleeve management system along with current holdings which includes area allocations as of April 1, 2017. This does not include the seasonal revision to my portfolio's new overall allocations noted in my above post but it will provide fund holdings that you seek. Come fall, I'll most likely be back to the overall allocations described below.
Old_Skeet's Sleeve Management System
Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better help manage the investments held within mine & my wife’s combined portfolios. Currently, the master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed ira accounts, a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves … an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consists of two sleeves … a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves … a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. An finally there is the growth area, where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves … a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, a specialty/theme sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. Each sleeve (in most cases) consists of three to nine funds with the size and the weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds and amounts held the exception is the spiff sleeve. By using the sleeve system one can get a better picture of their overall investment landscape and weightings by sleeve and area. In addition, I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly. Again, weightings can be adjusted form time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets along with using an adaptive allocation matrix as an aid to help set the stock allocation weighting. All funds pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio with the exception being those in my health savings accounts where reinvestment occurs. With the other accounts paying to the cash area builds the cash area of the portfolio to meet the portfolio’s monthly cash disbursement amount (if necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio’s average five year return. In this way, principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell trades settle from, or to, the cash area with some net asset value exchanges between funds taking place.
Last revised: 04/01/2017 Master Portfolio
Here is how I have my asset allocation broken out in percent ranges, by area. My neutral allocation weightings are cash 20%, income 30%, growth & income 35%, growth & other assets 15%. I do an Instant Xray analysis on the portfolio quarterly (sometimes monthly) and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc. Currently, according to Morningstar Instant Xray, I am about 20% in the cash area, 25% in the income area, 35% domestic stocks area, 15% foreign stocks area & 5% in the other asset area. In addition, I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar’s Portfolio Manager by sleeve and as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements along with some other Morningstar reports as well.
Cash Area (Weighting Range 15% to 25% with neutral weighting being 20%)
Demand Cash Sleeve… (Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual)
Investment Cash Sleeve … (Savings & Time Deposits)
Income Area (Weighting Range 25% to 35% with neutral weighting being 30%)
Fixed Income Sleeve: BAICX, CTFAX, FMTNX, GIFAX, LALDX, LBNDX, NEFZX, THIFX & TSIAX
Hybrid Income Sleeve: APIUX, CAPAX, DIFAX, FISCX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX, PGBAX & PMAIX
Growth & Income Area (Weighting Range 30% to 40% with neutral being 35%)
Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX
Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX & SVAAX
Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FBLAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX
Growth Area (Weighting Range 10% to 20% with neutral weighting being 15%)
Global Sleeve: ANWPX, SMCWX & THOAX
Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, BWLAX & SPECX
Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: PCVAX, PMDAX & TSVAX
Specialty & Theme Sleeve: LPEFX, PGUAX & NEWFX
Spiff Sleeve: VADAX
Total Number of Mutual Fund Positions = 48

Hi @Junkster,
S&P 500:
Jan 1, 1984 166.40
Jan 1, 1983 144.30
Jan 1, 1982 117.30
Jan 1, 1981 133.00
Jan 1, 1980 110.90
I have not dug through old data, but recall the end of August in 1982 as the turn around and the beginning of the upward run in U.S. equity after the beating of the mid-1970's.
An aside note, not directly related and may not be of any value, but the mid range of the boomers in 1992 was about 36 years old finding decent average earning/wage power at the time for perhaps the next 20 years before the slow turn down in earning power. Boomers, of course, have entered into the retirement phase and others entering at a 10,000/day rate, being 4 million/year. The reported birth numbers from 1946-1964 for the U.S. was about 76 million. A question as to whether there is enough money among this group to help support either equity or bond markets to the positive side. We here have read the reports of low savings rates for many boomers; and so there may not be enough power in this group to support any market area(s). The flip side being that the output/withdrawal period is in play, versus the prior period of input/investing. Whose/what money is going to support this withdrawal in order to support equity/bond returns to the positive side going forward???
Bond yield range: The current yields below have remained in this spread range for some time now; being about .6%; and traveling together. I do not recall any breakout in the 30 year to extend the yield above and beyond this .6% spread from the 10 year, for at least the past 6 months to 1 year period. For my non financial background and IMHO; I read this as continued low inflation as well as other twitches and wiggles, which may be related to high equity valuations and the big money (pension funds, foreign central banks, etc.) still maintaining "safe ground" and purchases while Euro area bond yields remain very low.
10 Year 2.25%
30 Year 2.90%
Note: most investment grade bonds lost a small piece of price ground today.
A few late in the day musings.
Take care,
Catch

I have to admit I am impressed. Just like at the beginning of 2014 when 99.99% were saying bonds (10 yield Treasuries) were on their way to 4% (they were 3% at the time) Gundlach was the sole dissenter and predicting bonds were headed back to 2%. This time around when bonds recently hit 2.55% to 2.60% just about everyone was saying it would be a non stop rise to 3%. But Mr Gundlach again was a dissenter saying they would first trade below 2.25% before resuming their journey to 3%. They are 2.22% as we speak.
I guess the surprise here would be they never get close to 3% and fall below 2% or stay in the current range of 2.20 to 2.50%. I am not sure what has been the story of 2017 - the resilience of stocks or bonds. I am also wondering if there is some secular shift underway where bonds may trade in a low yield range for years to come. And that is from the baby boomers seeking safer and less volatile investments in retirement as they rotate out of equities. It sure has been a boom for the early boomers since 1982. It's liked they all woke up one day and began worrying about retirement shoveling money into stocks. Maybe now they are waking up again and shoveling money into bonds.

FYI: Fee inefficiency and waste are hamstringing 401(k) participants’ retirement chances, a report says..
Americans give up at least $17 billion a year by choosing expensive investments within their workplace retirement plans, according to a recent report from New York-based RiXtrema, which provides portfolio crash-testing and other risk management tools to advisors.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.fa-mag.com/news/expensive-fund-menus-cost-401-k--participants--17-billion-annually-32295.html?print

Hi Guys,
I completely agree with Old Joe that " life will inevitably throw you a curve ball or some of your assumptions will prove to be untrue."
Indeed curve balls happen. One advantage of using Monte Carlo tools is that they improve the odds of hitting those curve balls by preparing you with multiple what-if scenario outcomes and providing the odds of their likely occurrence. With those odds, a plan can be formulated that tilts those odds to favor a successful retirement.
And indeed adjustments will be needed as the unexpected happens. Flexibility is always an essential key to survival. In the Monte Carlo code that I developed, if a portfolio failure approached a likelihood, withdrawal rates were slowly reduced to alleviate that likelihood with a minimum impact on lifestyle. These adjustments are easily examined using the Monte Carlo tool.
I am not the Lone Ranger in advocating this easy-to-use tool. About a month ago, Ben Carlson also promoted its utility in an article that listed "the best free tools on the Internet". Here is the Link to that excellent article:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/03/the-best-free-investing-tools-on-the-internet/
Carlson and I are on the same page since both he and I urged a visit to the Portfolio Visualizer website. A great mind and a not so great mind can sometimes find common ground.
As Alan Lakein observed: "Failing to plan is planning to fail".
Best Wishes

Ignoring the preconstructed set of platitudes which most of us have now firmly committed to memory, I took notice of Mark's comments, which are always worth consideration. I certainly agree with him, and in fact here are those paragraps which he mentions:
"Retirement is still a relatively new phenomenon. In the past, people pretty much worked until they died. No one has this stuff completely figured out.
You can run through all the calculations and spreadsheets you want but life will inevitably throw you a curve ball or some of your assumptions will prove to be untrue. This is an unfortunate side effect of trying to plan in the face of never-ending uncertainty. In a way, there’s a lot of guessing involved in the process.
This is why financial planning is a process and not an event. You don’t simply set a course of action and follow that exact plan for your remaining days. Financial plans should be open-ended because there will always be corrective actions, updates, changes in strategy, or difficult decisions that have to be made.

It’s like the old saying, “Plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”"
(Emphasis added)

Hi Guys,
As usual, Ben Carlson writes an information heavy column that is useful. In this instance he addresses saving rates to build a retirement nest egg. There is much uncertainty here given the unpredictable vicissitudes of market returns.
Those of you who are familiar with my posting history can anticipate where I'm going. This is exactly the situation that Monte Carlo simulation tools can be applied. Mostly, Monte Carlo has been recommended fo project portfolio survival odds. It is obvious that that simulation tool can also be used to estimate nest egg accumulation before retirement. Those simulations acknowledge market return uncertainties.
Those uncertainties are important since the annual variability of portfolio returns operates to lower end balance. While planning for retirement, the Monte Carlo approach can be used in two stages: one simulation run that models the accumulation phase, and a second run that reflects the distribution phase.
The projected retirement date is the natural breakpoint for each analysis. The portfolio asset allocation is likely to be adjusted anyway at that critical date. The output of the first phase analysis is used as an input for the second phase analysis.
I always take this opportunity to recommend the Portfolio Visualzer Monte Carlo simulation tool. Once again, here is the Link to it:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation
There are many other fine simulation tools available. This one is quick, free, and easy to use. It will allow you to explore what-if scenarios to help assess the risks associated with your life changing retirement decision.
I hope this tool will be fully exploited when making that decision. These calculations highlight the very great variability in possible outcomes. Life decisions are never easy. I will now step off my soap box, at least for the present.
Best Wishes for a happy and a successful retirement.

FYI: There are all sorts of rules of thumb about saving for retirement. There’s the 4% withdrawal rule. Another rule states you need to have saved 20-25x the annual income you want to spend in retirement. Then there’s the one that says you’ll need to replace 80% of your current income from your portfolio in retirement.
Regards,
Ted
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/04/how-much-money-do-you-need-to-retire/

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
BlackRock Inc., the world's largest asset manager, is being sued by a former employee for self-dealing in the company's 401(k) plan, the latest excessive-fee case involving an asset manager offering proprietary investment funds to retirement plan participants.
In the lawsuit, Baird v. BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. et al, the plaintiff claims almost all the fund options in the company's roughly $1.6 billion 401(k) plan are affiliated with BlackRock, even though the funds have high fees and poor performance.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=BlackRock+sued+for+alleged+self-dealing+in+its+401(k)+plan

Why are these Social Security proposals always floated right when markets are peaking instead of at their bottoms like in 2009? Also, if you are a regulator looking to investigate Microsoft, Exxon or Bank of America for dirty dealing, what sort of political pressure would be applied to you to not pursue your investigation if the entire nation's retirement benefit will be negatively affected by your investigation? Aren't there enough conflicts of interest tying Washington to the private sector as it is? it's funny how the author of the Cato Institute is worried about the government's potentially undue influence on the stock market. I am worried about the reverse--the stock market's undue influence on our government. They should stay separate.

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
TIAA, long the beloved asset manager of teachers, has kept a low profile. Buying Nuveen should change that.
I come from a family of teachers, so I was pretty familiar with TIAA-CREF before becoming a financial journalist. The $900 billion asset manager is best known for the nearly $600 billion it runs in pension and other retirement plans for academic institutions. I’ve heard more than one person say with relief that “all my money is with TIAA,” as if that were all that one needed to know.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=Head+of+the+Class+Barron's