Why is M* so negative on IOFIX? There's nothing to read beyond what Crash posted, and that's the point.
Here's M*'s description of the AI methodology it uses
https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/methodology/813568-QuantRatingForFundsMethodolgy.pdfThe idea is that you train a classifier (positive, neutral, negative) for a pillar based on some of the funds that analysts have rated. You train another classifier on a different subset of the data, and so on. Then you run all these classifiers and see what the majority thinks.
Here's a simpler page on how this part of the process works:
https://towardsdatascience.com/understanding-random-forest-58381e0602d2The bottom line is that even if you could get an explanation out of each classifier, what you're doing is polling a lot of classifiers ("pseudo-analysts") to get a consensus. There's no explanation for why some classifiers voted one way, while a larger number voted another.
Regarding the ratings themselves, Charles gave a fine writeup at the beginning of last year, explaining why the price pillar (1.5% vs. 0.85% category average) and the parent pillar are viewed negatively.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/lightning-in-a-bottle-alphacentric-income-opportunities-fund-iofix-february-2018/I think Lewis is on the right track regarding performance and process. While the fund is classified as multi-sector bond, by its own description it is a fund that is focused on a small niche. So while its niche has done well in the past (relative to the universe of investments open to multi-sector funds), its fortunes may shift as other investments in the multi-sector universe begin to look better.
Why is M* so negative on IOFIX? Price, People and Parent "pillars." IOFIX. Not even neutral. Definitely NEGATIVE... Hmmmmm. Performance and Process are rated NEUTRAL.
The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives fascinating discussion. It's been a good 10 years in the market so I have reduced equity holdings to about 50%. More of a tactical move though. Probably more driven by my fears of what the great idiot is going to do. I have alot in money markets and short term treasuries right now. Waiting for some kind of move and will probably open an initial position in
IOFIX.
@bee what are you doing with your "income milk."
IOFIX Yesterday Thanks MikeW. It's a Junkster term. The idea would be to screen for funds over say the past 3, 6, 10, or 12 months that have: 1) no drawdown, 2) low volatility, 3) high dividend, and 4) positive excess return. Something like that. IOFIX behaves that way. So does PIMIX. Most of the time. c
IOFIX Yesterday @Charles sounds like you're working on some cool new tools for MFO Premium. Being able to evaluate risk and return at the portfolio level would be incredibly valuable. Can't wait to see that. What is "tight channel" screening? Thanks very much for sharing where you are on
IOFIX and ZEOIX. I enjoyed reading your analysis on
IOFIX from last year.
IOFIX Yesterday @MikeW. I've been pretty much all-in with
IOFIX, so nothing more to add really. (Hmmm ... unless I use margin.) As such, I watch it pretty closely ... and the folks at Garrison politely answer my inquires when the fund dips (eg., "Charles, the 5 penny move yesterday was just the dividend ... !"). My only other fund is ZEOIX, another steady-eddy. Gone are my days in funds like FAAFX, which I once called my "Great Pumpkin" fund. It's actually been having a decent year.
IOFIX Yesterday @junkster thanks for feedback. yes that's why I ask the question. With the incredible run in bonds YTD it feels like I'm late to the party in buying
IOFIX which is what I think you are also saying too. I am a buy and hold guy... so this would be a long term hold but perhaps I should continue to wait for the bond market to sell off some.
IOFIX Yesterday @Charles has held this through thick and thin and that is the best way to play
IOFIX - buy and hold. Anyone who hasn’t established a position it’s best to buy after a down day. Down days often occur a couple days before the second to last trading day of the month. Then again, if one hasn’t already had a position why now after its stellar returns since inception. I have been as high as 100% of my liquid net worth at various times the past couple years. As I detailed made the mistake of going from 89% to 55% recently and after today’s close back up to 67%. Will add more when I see a weak day or two.
IOFIX seems correlated to absolutely nothing and why I call it the mystery fund. YTD everyone seems to be a bond genius and set for double digit annual returns in all sorts of bond categories so be wary of becoming a Johnny Come Lately.
IOFIX Yesterday @Charles and
@Junkster . thanks very much for posting on
IOFIX. I always value your thoughts on this fund. I saw big move up and wondered why when the overall bond market sold off a bit on Tuesday. Just curious if you would be adding to this fund or establishing a new position with the moves we're seeing in bonds. any thoughts are appreciated.
IOFIX Yesterday Junkster:
Re PCI, I believe the drop has to do with the news from Argentina. The PCI portfolio included Argentine debt. I'd be surprised if the action in PCI the past few days is a 'tell' about action in
IOFIX.
You missed our discussion last evening. It was the August effect. Be interesting to see today’s action considering how non agency RMBS PCI is getting hit today. PCI was the early tell last October before IOFIX had its worst daily hit ever. Albeit the backdrop then is the total opposite of now - rising rates vs falling rates.
Edit. My knowledge of CEFs such as PCI is about nil. I assume it’s recent decline is simply a squeezing out of its premium?
For Charles: IOFIX @catch22I like 50/50.
But I remain heavy
IOFIX.
One my best purchases. Helps make up for WBMIX, FAAFX, and AQRIX ... to name a few.
IOFIX Yesterday Yes, I did miss the discussion. Will look up. Before I posted, I searched for IOFIX and saw nothing new ... me just getting old. And yes again, let's hope history does repeat in this case! Good to see your name again Junkster. Hope all is well. c
IOFIX Yesterday
You missed our discussion last evening. It was the August effect. Be interesting to see today’s action considering how non agency RMBS PCI is getting hit today. PCI was the early tell last October before
IOFIX had its worst daily hit ever. Albeit the backdrop then is the total opposite of now - rising rates vs falling rates.
Edit. My knowledge of CEFs such as PCI is about nil. I assume it’s recent decline is simply a squeezing out of its premium?
IOFIX Yesterday
For Charles: IOFIX Junkster - all in (or even 55%) in IOFIX is way over my head. But, I did get my small piece thanks to your writings. I owe you some hiking gear.
For Charles: IOFIX Hi
@JunksterI recall the August moves you mention with
IOFIX.
Those of us who have been around long enough to know how our minds function with various situations have these moments indeed. I do my best to attempt to continue to adjust my quasi habits with investing.
I know from portfolio adjustments (where the monies are invested) that over time I find the results indicate that I am still learning and becoming better.
The downside is that too soon in the near future I/we will likely abandon self directed investments and place the majority of the money into a form of a balanced fund or a 50/50 split between equity and bonds to form our own balanced fund. Obviously, this is not a pure hands off; but I/we are attempting an unwind from the active role.
Habits are hard and will be hard to break when standing on the sidelines, noting what actions could have been taken.
I'm somewhat saddened by this thought as I write, but the clock hand of time won't slow for me.
Take care of yourself,
Catch
For Charles: IOFIX An experienced trader can always tell the frauds and Pretenders from the real deals. The Pretenders have this need to always prove their brilliance by never being wrong and never admitting mistakes. One way to do this is always post your winning trades after the fact but never ever mention your losers.
But I digress. Speaking of making mistakes, I just made one of my biggest blunders in many, many a moon. My affinity for IOFIX is well documented above in this thread. Can’t think of a better bond fund technically and even more so fundamentally - the ever shrinking legacy rmbs market. Best of all it is not a groupthink fund. IOFIX is also a pattern trader’s dream and for reasons I won’t go into here. Also look at its performance in August 2017 and 2018. I was fully expecting a day like today this August. Mentioned it to a poster here in one of our many messages. I was locked and loaded with 89% in IOFIX. Yet last week went from 89% to 55%. Dumb me! That cost me five figures in additional profits today. As for being petty and complaining about an otherwise great day, real traders are also never satisfied and always striving for perfection. Trading was my profession and how I built my nest egg and old mindsets are hard to break.
How are you using global / international bonds in your portfolios? For no other reason but for diversification. Only hold 2 bond specific funds, IOFIX and MAINX.
a BOND fund? MAINX Thanks
@Crash and
@Junkster for sharing your current holdings. Junkster it sounds like
IOFIX is a long term holding for you and not one that you trade in and out of. I'm about 10 years away from retirement so am 70% equities and about 30% in money markets. I've been looking for an entry point into bonds all year but have shied away because I keep expecting rates to rise... have been wrong to date. Certainly hard to establish a position now with the big run up in bonds.