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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    "... It attracted more capital in last quarter of 2017 than in the first six quarters of its existence. It ended the year with $1.6B, five times the level it started the year..."
    Jeepers. Is that a lotta "dumb money," then? Thanks for replying, all of you. I track IOFIX but don't own it. I own PTIAX, which is not quite the same animal, but in the same ballpark, right?
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    There's nothing to read beyond what Crash posted, and that's the point.
    Here's M*'s description of the AI methodology it uses
    https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/methodology/813568-QuantRatingForFundsMethodolgy.pdf
    The idea is that you train a classifier (positive, neutral, negative) for a pillar based on some of the funds that analysts have rated. You train another classifier on a different subset of the data, and so on. Then you run all these classifiers and see what the majority thinks.
    Here's a simpler page on how this part of the process works:
    https://towardsdatascience.com/understanding-random-forest-58381e0602d2
    The bottom line is that even if you could get an explanation out of each classifier, what you're doing is polling a lot of classifiers ("pseudo-analysts") to get a consensus. There's no explanation for why some classifiers voted one way, while a larger number voted another.
    Regarding the ratings themselves, Charles gave a fine writeup at the beginning of last year, explaining why the price pillar (1.5% vs. 0.85% category average) and the parent pillar are viewed negatively.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/lightning-in-a-bottle-alphacentric-income-opportunities-fund-iofix-february-2018/
    I think Lewis is on the right track regarding performance and process. While the fund is classified as multi-sector bond, by its own description it is a fund that is focused on a small niche. So while its niche has done well in the past (relative to the universe of investments open to multi-sector funds), its fortunes may shift as other investments in the multi-sector universe begin to look better.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    Price, People and Parent "pillars." IOFIX. Not even neutral. Definitely NEGATIVE... Hmmmmm. Performance and Process are rated NEUTRAL.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives
    fascinating discussion. It's been a good 10 years in the market so I have reduced equity holdings to about 50%. More of a tactical move though. Probably more driven by my fears of what the great idiot is going to do. I have alot in money markets and short term treasuries right now. Waiting for some kind of move and will probably open an initial position in IOFIX. @bee what are you doing with your "income milk."
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    Thanks MikeW. It's a Junkster term. The idea would be to screen for funds over say the past 3, 6, 10, or 12 months that have: 1) no drawdown, 2) low volatility, 3) high dividend, and 4) positive excess return. Something like that. IOFIX behaves that way. So does PIMIX. Most of the time. c
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    @Charles sounds like you're working on some cool new tools for MFO Premium. Being able to evaluate risk and return at the portfolio level would be incredibly valuable. Can't wait to see that. What is "tight channel" screening? Thanks very much for sharing where you are on IOFIX and ZEOIX. I enjoyed reading your analysis on IOFIX from last year.
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    @MikeW. I've been pretty much all-in with IOFIX, so nothing more to add really. (Hmmm ... unless I use margin.) As such, I watch it pretty closely ... and the folks at Garrison politely answer my inquires when the fund dips (eg., "Charles, the 5 penny move yesterday was just the dividend ... !"). My only other fund is ZEOIX, another steady-eddy. Gone are my days in funds like FAAFX, which I once called my "Great Pumpkin" fund. It's actually been having a decent year.
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    @junkster thanks for feedback. yes that's why I ask the question. With the incredible run in bonds YTD it feels like I'm late to the party in buying IOFIX which is what I think you are also saying too. I am a buy and hold guy... so this would be a long term hold but perhaps I should continue to wait for the bond market to sell off some.
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    @Charles has held this through thick and thin and that is the best way to play IOFIX - buy and hold. Anyone who hasn’t established a position it’s best to buy after a down day. Down days often occur a couple days before the second to last trading day of the month. Then again, if one hasn’t already had a position why now after its stellar returns since inception. I have been as high as 100% of my liquid net worth at various times the past couple years. As I detailed made the mistake of going from 89% to 55% recently and after today’s close back up to 67%. Will add more when I see a weak day or two. IOFIX seems correlated to absolutely nothing and why I call it the mystery fund. YTD everyone seems to be a bond genius and set for double digit annual returns in all sorts of bond categories so be wary of becoming a Johnny Come Lately.
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    @Charles and @Junkster . thanks very much for posting on IOFIX. I always value your thoughts on this fund. I saw big move up and wondered why when the overall bond market sold off a bit on Tuesday. Just curious if you would be adding to this fund or establishing a new position with the moves we're seeing in bonds. any thoughts are appreciated.
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    Junkster:
    Re PCI, I believe the drop has to do with the news from Argentina. The PCI portfolio included Argentine debt. I'd be surprised if the action in PCI the past few days is a 'tell' about action in IOFIX.

    +1.26%
    Wow.
    I suspect ... these lower rates have been great for RMBS.
    Through July ...
    https://www.screencast.com/t/CZ9CBwSJ

    You missed our discussion last evening. It was the August effect. Be interesting to see today’s action considering how non agency RMBS PCI is getting hit today. PCI was the early tell last October before IOFIX had its worst daily hit ever. Albeit the backdrop then is the total opposite of now - rising rates vs falling rates.
    Edit. My knowledge of CEFs such as PCI is about nil. I assume it’s recent decline is simply a squeezing out of its premium?
  • For Charles: IOFIX
    @catch22
    I like 50/50.
    But I remain heavy IOFIX.
    One my best purchases. Helps make up for WBMIX, FAAFX, and AQRIX ... to name a few.
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    Yes, I did miss the discussion. Will look up. Before I posted, I searched for IOFIX and saw nothing new ... me just getting old. And yes again, let's hope history does repeat in this case! Good to see your name again Junkster. Hope all is well. c
  • IOFIX Yesterday

    +1.26%
    Wow.
    I suspect ... these lower rates have been great for RMBS.
    Through July ...
    https://www.screencast.com/t/CZ9CBwSJ
    You missed our discussion last evening. It was the August effect. Be interesting to see today’s action considering how non agency RMBS PCI is getting hit today. PCI was the early tell last October before IOFIX had its worst daily hit ever. Albeit the backdrop then is the total opposite of now - rising rates vs falling rates.
    Edit. My knowledge of CEFs such as PCI is about nil. I assume it’s recent decline is simply a squeezing out of its premium?
  • IOFIX Yesterday

    +1.26%
    Wow.
    I suspect ... these lower rates have been great for RMBS.
    Through July ...
    https://www.screencast.com/t/CZ9CBwSJ
  • For Charles: IOFIX
    Junkster - all in (or even 55%) in IOFIX is way over my head. But, I did get my small piece thanks to your writings. I owe you some hiking gear.
  • For Charles: IOFIX
    Hi @Junkster
    I recall the August moves you mention with IOFIX.
    Those of us who have been around long enough to know how our minds function with various situations have these moments indeed. I do my best to attempt to continue to adjust my quasi habits with investing.
    I know from portfolio adjustments (where the monies are invested) that over time I find the results indicate that I am still learning and becoming better.
    The downside is that too soon in the near future I/we will likely abandon self directed investments and place the majority of the money into a form of a balanced fund or a 50/50 split between equity and bonds to form our own balanced fund. Obviously, this is not a pure hands off; but I/we are attempting an unwind from the active role.
    Habits are hard and will be hard to break when standing on the sidelines, noting what actions could have been taken.
    I'm somewhat saddened by this thought as I write, but the clock hand of time won't slow for me.
    Take care of yourself,
    Catch
  • For Charles: IOFIX
    An experienced trader can always tell the frauds and Pretenders from the real deals. The Pretenders have this need to always prove their brilliance by never being wrong and never admitting mistakes. One way to do this is always post your winning trades after the fact but never ever mention your losers.
    But I digress. Speaking of making mistakes, I just made one of my biggest blunders in many, many a moon. My affinity for IOFIX is well documented above in this thread. Can’t think of a better bond fund technically and even more so fundamentally - the ever shrinking legacy rmbs market. Best of all it is not a groupthink fund. IOFIX is also a pattern trader’s dream and for reasons I won’t go into here. Also look at its performance in August 2017 and 2018. I was fully expecting a day like today this August. Mentioned it to a poster here in one of our many messages. I was locked and loaded with 89% in IOFIX. Yet last week went from 89% to 55%. Dumb me! That cost me five figures in additional profits today. As for being petty and complaining about an otherwise great day, real traders are also never satisfied and always striving for perfection. Trading was my profession and how I built my nest egg and old mindsets are hard to break.
  • How are you using global / international bonds in your portfolios?
    For no other reason but for diversification. Only hold 2 bond specific funds, IOFIX and MAINX.
  • a BOND fund? MAINX
    Thanks @Crash and @Junkster for sharing your current holdings. Junkster it sounds like IOFIX is a long term holding for you and not one that you trade in and out of. I'm about 10 years away from retirement so am 70% equities and about 30% in money markets. I've been looking for an entry point into bonds all year but have shied away because I keep expecting rates to rise... have been wrong to date. Certainly hard to establish a position now with the big run up in bonds.