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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Cash as an active part of your mutual funds, etf or overall portfolio
    I hadn't paid much attention to cash until this year as I get close to official retirement. So far my Schwab Investor Checking is the bulk of it. It get a small amount of interest but the big thing is that all ATM fees are refunded back.
    As far as active cash goes, I have none. If new investments catch my eye I sell some from those that are lagging. Lately my AAPL has gained enough for me to fund two other investments.
  • Paul Merriman: How Much Of Your Retirement Portfolio Belongs In Bonds?
    Hi Guys,
    I believe Hank is spot on-target when he recommends that a broadly defined two category portfolio would be more precisely classified equities/fixed income over the equities/bonds designation.
    After my initial postings here, I recognized that the “Bonds” descriptor should be expanded to the more comprehensive “Fixed Income” descriptor. To avoid subsequent exchange confusion, I elected not to make that adjustment. That was a mistake; sorry about that.
    Portfolio asset allocation is a very nuanced, personal decision. Not only is it personal, it changes over time. One size definitely does not fit all. And, in the investment universe, getting it right is an elusive goal. It is hard to find experts who consistently get it right more often than a fair coin toss.
    The CXO Advisory Group tested the accuracy of 68 experts over an extended timeframe. Results were less than impressive. Here is the Link to CXO’s final Guru Grades report:
    http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
    The cumulative expert accuracy hovered around the uninspired 47% level for most of the study. Very few of the experts were able to score correct predictions two-thirds of the forecasts. In general, experts are overrated.
    Experts continue to disappoint in terms of their financial insights. I recently read a book titled “Wrong” by David H. Freedman. You guys might find it useful. The subtitle of the book is “Why experts keep failing us-And how to know not to trust them”. You might want to give it a try.
    H. L. Menchen said: “There is always a well known solution to every human problem-neat, plausible, and wrong”. Far too often, the Gurus tout this wrong pathway.
    These days, I prefer investment solutions that feature simple mutual fund portfolios that are Index product heavy. Leonardo da Vinci said it best: “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”.
    MFOer Hank observed that John Bogle has recently recommended adding Social Security benefits to the fixed income segment of a portfolio’s asset allocation. I agree. I’ve been doing that for many years. I also consider both my and my wife’s corporate retirement benefits as an integral part of our fixed income asset allocation. Given that philosophy, these are substantial additions to our Fixed Income holdings.
    Well, the Merriman article triggered some stimulating exchanges from the MFO Board. It was fun and illuminating. Thank you all for participating. I’ve said all I want to say on this matter.
    Best Regards.
  • Paul Merriman: How Much Of Your Retirement Portfolio Belongs In Bonds?
    Sorry, I can't even relate to this question - as posed by Merreman. ... Problem is this: The past 35 years have been decidedly atypical for interest rates (and by association bonds) which, except for only brief respites, have trended continually downward since around 1980 when Fed Chair Paul Volker burst the inflation bubble by ratcheting-up the overnight lending rate to 20%. Making investment allocation decisions at/near market highs is risky. That's true not only for bonds, but for stocks, gold, oil, emerging markets and real estate. So, a healthy dose of skepticism regarding bonds is warranted.
    I'd be much more comfortable if Merriman had asked what percentage of one's retirement savings should be in "fixed-income". That's a broader compendium of the (albeit bond) market and would allow, perhaps, greater consideration of short-term bonds, ultra-shorts, cash, foreign currencies, high yield and the like. Certainly, retirees should be in some of these fixed-income assets. For the most part, I'll defer to the fixed-income/allocation people at T. Rowe Price. I suspect their mathematicians and analysists are at least as capable as the good people here at MFO. Unless you have humongous quantities of money to invest, let folks like that make the decision for you under the umbrella of one or more of their allocation funds. They're very good at it. I like TRRIX and RPSIX. On the more aggressive end there's PRWCX which continues to elicit favorable reactions from MFO board participants.
    As an aside, I like John Bogle's rule of thumb - but only as a starting point for one's own analysis. He has long advocated having a percentage equivalent to one's age invested in bonds (I'd expand that to the broader "fixed-income" category). And, if my read is correct, Bogle has modified the advice somewhat in recent years, faced with the harsh realities of historically low interest rates. One acquiescence of reality has been his advocating of moving to shorter and shorter bond maturities as rates declined; and the other is his more recent advice to include one's anticipated Social Security income as part of one's bond holdings (effectively reducing one's actual allocation to bonds). The fellow may at times appear rigid and stubborn - but he's not dumb.
    ---
    Footnote: While I don't consider my own allocation decisions necessarily pertinent to the discussion or instructive to others, in the interest of full disclosure here's my latest M* X-Ray (age 70).
    Cash 17%
    Bonds 28%
    U.S. Stocks 31%
    Foreign Stocks 12%
    Not Classified 13%
  • The Best Annuities
    I have given annuities a lot of thought recently in my retirement planning. The only that ones that make half way sense are deferred annuities. And there especially the ones where the recent Treasury rule allows you to exempt up to $125,000 in your IRAs from the RMD rule. Still, I just can't see the financial allure of annuities of any stripe or color. Piece of mind and psychological allure I can understand and peace of mind in old age is a powerful motivator. The bottom line with annuities are they seem more of a return of principal gimmick for x amount of years and then after that you better hope you live a long life (real long) to reap some real benefits. But I am always open to differing opinions.
    Edit: If anything, maybe suited for a small, very small portion of your retirement nest egg.
  • Paul Merriman: How Much Of Your Retirement Portfolio Belongs In Bonds?
    Hi Davidrmoran
    You asked if the risk-reward curve has a distinctive character such that it attracts special financial attention. The simple answer is No.
    The marketplace risk-reward curve rises in a continuous well-behaved manner as the equity fraction increases; higher risk, higher rewards. There are no outstanding features.
    Note that I did not answer the title question in the original post; “How Much Of Your Retirement Portfolio Belongs In Bonds?” One size does not fit all; there is no single overarching reply. Each investor has a logical different answer to that question for very disparate logical reasons. The answers lead to the complete spectrum of the equity-bond tradeoff.
    One historical standing rule is that younger folks should have a portfolio that heavily favors equity positions, while older folks should be more conservative with a portfolio weighted towards bond products.
    Today, some industry experts are challenging that wisdom. In the end, it depends on the individual investor, his wealth, his plans, his risk aversion. One size definitely does not fit all.
    To help answer your question, I input the annual returns (AR) data and the cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) data into a curve fitting program available on the Internet. The program automatically “best fits” the data sets to Linear, Exponential, Power, and Logarithmic equation formats.
    This statistical curve fitting was done on the following mathematical website:
    http://www.had2know.com/academics/regression-calculator-statistics-best-fit.html
    Goodness of fit values (correlation coefficients) were high for all the tested equations. The Logarithmic form was slightly superior for all cases examined. However, the Linear modeling did an excellent job also. For simplicity, I’ll report the Linear modeling. Here are the equations:
    AR = 0.452 X SD +6.41 Correlation Coefficient = 0.972
    CAGR = 0.369 X SD + 6.71 Correlation Coefficient = 0.950
    The percentage signs were just ignored in these correlations (use 5 for 5%). You get to choose whatever volatility (Standard Deviation) you find comfortable, and the equations provide an estimate of returns using the historical data sets.
    For every unit that you move up the risk curve, estimated AR increases by 0.452 units and the CAGR increases by 0.369 units. If the more complex Logarithmic formulation were deployed, a slightly more refined estimate would be predicted that is not constant over the entire range of Standard Deviations.
    This submittal might be a little more than folks wanted, but it puts the trends and relationships into a rigorous statistical framework that uses historical data. I hope you find this first-order analysis of some utility.
    Best Wishes.
  • Any guys here 85 years or older?
    We have had many discussions recently about retirement planning (thanks Dex) I sense most, if not all of us including me, tend to far overestimate their longevity. Obviously that optimism is warranted less we outlive our nest egg and the consequences thereof. But the other side of the coin also has drawbacks primarily dying too rich and not fully enjoying the fruits of our labor over a lifetime of investing. Longevity tables tell us that the first wave of baby boomers should expect to live to around 85/86. But I have my doubts about that statistic. I know a lot of widows and females in my neighborhood who are in their mid 80s+ but not one widower or male. I am just curious if any males who actively follow this board are over 85. I know Ron and MJG are around 81 but can't recall anyone much older. Maybe a stupid question so just humor me.
    Edit: I don't mean to imply that there aren't any of us males around over 85. Just few and far between.
  • Paul Merriman: How Much Of Your Retirement Portfolio Belongs In Bonds?
    FYI: Bonds aren't particularly sexy investments, and many people shun them because of the fear of rising interest rates.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-much-of-your-retirement-portfolio-belongs-in-bonds-2015-06-17/print
  • Taxable account and cash.
    I have been eyeing multi-asset income funds for near cash investing. They invest in preferred stocks and dividend payers, REITs, fixed income and cash equivalents. I don't expect big gains but hopefully better than the money markets are giving out. There is some added risk but with MM funds you are losing purchasing power also.
    I will add that six months ago I moved some of my portfolio into such a fund as I am right at the retirement age.
    Hi John,
    What types of funds are you looking at? Just curious if you could give a few examples. Thanks,
    Will
  • Taxable account and cash.
    I have been eyeing multi-asset income funds for near cash investing. They invest in preferred stocks and dividend payers, REITs, fixed income and cash equivalents. I don't expect big gains but hopefully better than the money markets are giving out. There is some added risk but with MM funds you are losing purchasing power also.
    I will add that six months ago I moved some of my portfolio into such a fund as I am right at the retirement age.
  • Withdrawals from 401(k) retirement plans exceed new contributions, a shift that could shake up U.S.
    Isn't the point of saving to provide the opportunity to spend at some later point in time? Get use to the fact that 1/3 of the US will be spending down their hard earned savings.
    Seems stimulative to the economy to me.
    I dare say, fewer AUM due to redemptions and spending might ruffle a few manager's feathers with respect to the growth of fees, but there will be new savers.
    One persons spending is another persons income. This acquired income will partly be saved for another future retirement.
    The passing of the baton if you will.
    When yo take into account the other factors e.g. lack of savings for retirement, wages stagnant since the '70s - it isn't a good data point.
  • Withdrawals from 401(k) retirement plans exceed new contributions, a shift that could shake up U.S.
    Isn't the point of saving to provide the opportunity to spend at some later point in time? Get use to the fact that 1/3 of the US will be spending down their hard earned savings.
    Seems stimulative to the economy to me.
    I dare say, fewer AUM due to redemptions and spending might ruffle a few manager's feathers with respect to the growth of fees, but there will be new savers.
    One persons spending is another persons income. This acquired income will partly be saved for another future retirement.
    The passing of the baton if you will.
  • Larry Swedroe: Are Grantham and Hussman Correct About
    It will therefore be interesting to see how DSENX does, especially to someone who now has 35-40% of the total retirement nut in it.
  • What's Behind Door# 1, 3, 5, 10???
    Sounds like you and I are in about the se place nearing retirement and thinking what to do investment wise going forward. I can tell you what I did.
    I was downsized a couple years ago but was able to pick up with another company at the same pay. This allowed me to move my 401k to an IRA with Schwab. I picked Schwab because they have a local office here that gave me access to a financial advisor - for free. Also chose them because of all the products they have to offer.
    To make a long story shorter, I split money 3 ways. A 3rd in their robo syst, Intelligent Portfolio, a 3rd in their managed Windhaven portfolio and the remaining 3rd, for the same fun reasons you gave, self manage.
    Hech, we are all different, but this is what was most comfortable for me leading into retirement. I'm happy with my choice.
  • Merk Currency Enhanced U.S. Equity Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315774/000143510915000518/merk_497e.htm
    497 1 merk_497e.htm MERK CEUSE SUPPLEMENT
    MERK CURRENCY ENHANCED U.S. EQUITY FUND (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated June 15, 2015 to the Prospectus dated August 1, 2014
    On June 12, 2015, the Board of Trustees (“Board”) of Forum Funds (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the proceeds remaining after payment of or provision for liabilities and obligations of the Fund will be distributed to shareholders. The Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”) has recommended that the Board approve the Plan based on market conditions and economic factors adversely affecting the ability of the Fund to conduct its business operations in an economically efficient manner, and the Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund pursuant to the Plan.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will stop accepting purchases into the Fund on June 15, 2015. Thereafter, the Fund will begin its process of winding up and liquidating its portfolio assets as soon as reasonably practicable. As a result, the Fund will not be pursuing its investment objective after June 15, 2015. Reinvestment of dividends on existing shares in accounts which have selected that option will continue until the liquidation.
    The Fund anticipates that it will complete the liquidation on or around the close of business on July 15, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make liquidating distributions to each remaining shareholder, equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and thereafter the Fund will be terminated and dissolved.
    If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    (866) MERK FUND or (866) 637-5386
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    208-PSA-0614
    MERK CURRENCY ENHANCED U.S. EQUITY FUND (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated June 15, 2015 to the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated August 1, 2014, as supplemented on April 15, 2015
    On June 12, 2015, the Board of Trustees (“Board”) of Forum Funds (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the proceeds remaining after payment of or provision for liabilities and obligations of the Fund will be distributed to shareholders. The Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”) has recommended that the Board approve the Plan based on market conditions and economic factors adversely affecting the ability of the Fund to conduct its business operations in an economically efficient manner, and the Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund pursuant to the Plan.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will stop accepting purchases into the Fund on or around June 15, 2015. Thereafter, the Fund will then begin its process of winding up and liquidating its portfolio assets as soon as reasonably practicable. As a result, the Fund will not be pursuing its investment objective on or around June 15, 2015. Reinvestment of dividends on existing shares in accounts which have selected that option will continue until the liquidation.
    The Fund anticipates that it will complete the liquidation on or around the close of business on July 15, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make liquidating distributions to each remaining shareholder, equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and thereafter the Fund will be terminated and dissolved.
    If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    (866) MERK FUND or (866) 637-5386
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • What's Behind Door# 1, 3, 5, 10???
    Hi puddenhead. Seems more like you are trying to time investments in the short term and over the next 10 years rather than establish a true bucket system. A bucket system goes from very conservative investments to aggressive investments and the aggressive bucket replenishes the conservative bucket every few years when needed. In my thinking it is a method used when you are drawing down investments, ala retirement. Maybe you are just using the "bucket" terminology incorrectly(?). Google 'Bucket System Investments' and take a look.
  • How To Take Less Risk And Earn Better Investment Returns
    Career: 3 HR, .219 BA, 29 RB
    Does anyone besides me think this initial paragraph sucks? Even a mediocre phenom exceeds theses stats.
    If you have a moderate amount of savings, buy a retirement fund dated 10 years after you plan to retire to achieve an adequate stock percentage; if not, buy a date close to actual retirement.
    If you have quite a lot of money, get professional advice, hopefully from someone who understands "Moneyball" as an investment approach.
  • Jonathan Clements: Another Death-Triggered Tax Event To Worry About
    So long a stretch IRAs rules remain unchanged they can be a multi-generational financial blessing:
    image
    Source:
    what-is-a-stretch-ira?
  • We’re Not In A ‘Bubble’ But Chances Are 60-70% That One Is Coming, Credit Suisse Says
    While I tried to make sense of this link, it seems to say that the "market" is reliant on the "bigger fool" hypothesis for further highs. I'm trying to decide if I should sell my value buys even if they are under water.
    OTOH, VHCOX and VPMAX are positive for the year, and it's difficult to justify taking profits (scant, but real) there.The stocks made sense when I bought them, so they may be good in five years.
    Since I'm 3 to 4 years from retirement, guess I'll sit, wait for a 10% drop, put in 50% of my cash when it happens, and decide if I like beans and rice if the market doesn't respond in 3 years.