Hi Davidrmoran
You asked if the risk-reward curve has a distinctive character such that it attracts special financial attention. The simple answer is No.
The marketplace risk-reward curve rises in a continuous well-behaved manner as the equity fraction increases; higher risk, higher rewards. There are no outstanding features.
Note that I did not answer the title question in the original post; “How Much Of Your Retirement Portfolio Belongs In Bonds?” One size does not fit all; there is no single overarching reply. Each investor has a logical different answer to that question for very disparate logical reasons. The answers lead to the complete spectrum of the equity-bond tradeoff.
One historical standing rule is that younger folks should have a portfolio that heavily favors equity positions, while older folks should be more conservative with a portfolio weighted towards bond products.
Today, some industry experts are challenging that wisdom. In the end, it depends on the individual investor, his wealth, his plans, his risk aversion. One size definitely does not fit all.
To help answer your question, I input the annual returns (AR) data and the cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) data into a curve fitting program available on the Internet. The program automatically “best fits” the data sets to Linear, Exponential, Power, and Logarithmic equation formats.
This statistical curve fitting was done on the following mathematical website:
http://www.had2know.com/academics/regression-calculator-statistics-best-fit.html
Goodness of fit values (correlation coefficients) were high for all the tested equations. The Logarithmic form was slightly superior for all cases examined. However, the Linear modeling did an excellent job also. For simplicity, I’ll report the Linear modeling. Here are the equations:
AR = 0.452 X SD +6.41 Correlation Coefficient = 0.972
CAGR = 0.369 X SD + 6.71 Correlation Coefficient = 0.950
The percentage signs were just ignored in these correlations (use 5 for 5%). You get to choose whatever volatility (Standard Deviation) you find comfortable, and the equations provide an estimate of returns using the historical data sets.
For every unit that you move up the risk curve, estimated AR increases by 0.452 units and the CAGR increases by 0.369 units. If the more complex Logarithmic formulation were deployed, a slightly more refined estimate would be predicted that is not constant over the entire range of Standard Deviations.
This submittal might be a little more than folks wanted, but it puts the trends and relationships into a rigorous statistical framework that uses historical data. I hope you find this first-order analysis of some utility.
Best Wishes.

We have had many discussions recently about retirement planning (thanks Dex) I sense most, if not all of us including me, tend to far overestimate their longevity. Obviously that optimism is warranted less we outlive our nest egg and the consequences thereof. But the other side of the coin also has drawbacks primarily dying too rich and not fully enjoying the fruits of our labor over a lifetime of investing. Longevity tables tell us that the first wave of baby boomers should expect to live to around 85/86. But I have my doubts about that statistic. I know a lot of widows and females in my neighborhood who are in their mid 80s+ but not one widower or male. I am just curious if any males who actively follow this board are over 85. I know Ron and MJG are around 81 but can't recall anyone much older. Maybe a stupid question so just humor me.
Edit: I don't mean to imply that there aren't any of us males around over 85. Just few and far between.

Similar to this thread's article:
mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/21802/withdrawals-from-401-k-retirement-plans-exceed-new-contributions-a-shift-that-could-shake-up-u-s#latest

FYI: Bonds aren't particularly sexy investments, and many people shun them because of the fear of rising interest rates.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-much-of-your-retirement-portfolio-belongs-in-bonds-2015-06-17/print

I have been eyeing multi-asset income funds for near cash investing. They invest in preferred stocks and dividend payers, REITs, fixed income and cash equivalents. I don't expect big gains but hopefully better than the money markets are giving out. There is some added risk but with MM funds you are losing purchasing power also.
I will add that six months ago I moved some of my portfolio into such a fund as I am right at the retirement age.

Hi John,
What types of funds are you looking at? Just curious if you could give a few examples. Thanks,
Will

I have been eyeing multi-asset income funds for near cash investing. They invest in preferred stocks and dividend payers, REITs, fixed income and cash equivalents. I don't expect big gains but hopefully better than the money markets are giving out. There is some added risk but with MM funds you are losing purchasing power also.
I will add that six months ago I moved some of my portfolio into such a fund as I am right at the retirement age.

Isn't the point of saving to provide the opportunity to spend at some later point in time? Get use to the fact that 1/3 of the US will be spending down their hard earned savings.
Seems stimulative to the economy to me.
I dare say, fewer AUM due to redemptions and spending might ruffle a few manager's feathers with respect to the growth of fees, but there will be new savers.
One persons spending is another persons income. This acquired income will partly be saved for another future retirement.
The passing of the baton if you will.

When yo take into account the other factors e.g. lack of savings for retirement, wages stagnant since the '70s - it isn't a good data point.

Isn't the point of saving to provide the opportunity to spend at some later point in time? Get use to the fact that 1/3 of the US will be spending down their hard earned savings.
Seems stimulative to the economy to me.
I dare say, fewer AUM due to redemptions and spending might ruffle a few manager's feathers with respect to the growth of fees, but there will be new savers.
One persons spending is another persons income. This acquired income will partly be saved for another future retirement.
The passing of the baton if you will.

It will therefore be interesting to see how DSENX does, especially to someone who now has 35-40% of the total retirement nut in it.

Sounds like you and I are in about the se place nearing retirement and thinking what to do investment wise going forward. I can tell you what I did.
I was downsized a couple years ago but was able to pick up with another company at the same pay. This allowed me to move my 401k to an IRA with Schwab. I picked Schwab because they have a local office here that gave me access to a financial advisor - for free. Also chose them because of all the products they have to offer.
To make a long story shorter, I split money 3 ways. A 3rd in their robo syst, Intelligent Portfolio, a 3rd in their managed Windhaven portfolio and the remaining 3rd, for the same fun reasons you gave, self manage.
Hech, we are all different, but this is what was most comfortable for me leading into retirement. I'm happy with my choice.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315774/000143510915000518/merk_497e.htm
497 1 merk_497e.htm MERK CEUSE SUPPLEMENT
MERK CURRENCY ENHANCED U.S. EQUITY FUND (the “Fund”)
Supplement dated June 15, 2015 to the Prospectus dated August 1, 2014
On June 12, 2015, the Board of Trustees (“Board”) of Forum Funds (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the proceeds remaining after payment of or provision for liabilities and obligations of the Fund will be distributed to shareholders. The Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”) has recommended that the Board approve the Plan based on market conditions and economic factors adversely affecting the ability of the Fund to conduct its business operations in an economically efficient manner, and the Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund pursuant to the Plan.
In anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will stop accepting purchases into the Fund on June 15, 2015. Thereafter, the Fund will begin its process of winding up and liquidating its portfolio assets as soon as reasonably practicable. As a result, the Fund will not be pursuing its investment objective after June 15, 2015. Reinvestment of dividends on existing shares in accounts which have selected that option will continue until the liquidation.
The Fund anticipates that it will complete the liquidation on or around the close of business on July 15, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make liquidating distributions to each remaining shareholder, equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and thereafter the Fund will be terminated and dissolved.
If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
* * *
For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
(866) MERK FUND or (866) 637-5386
PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
208-PSA-0614
MERK CURRENCY ENHANCED U.S. EQUITY FUND (the “Fund”)
Supplement dated June 15, 2015 to the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated August 1, 2014, as supplemented on April 15, 2015
On June 12, 2015, the Board of Trustees (“Board”) of Forum Funds (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the proceeds remaining after payment of or provision for liabilities and obligations of the Fund will be distributed to shareholders. The Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”) has recommended that the Board approve the Plan based on market conditions and economic factors adversely affecting the ability of the Fund to conduct its business operations in an economically efficient manner, and the Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund pursuant to the Plan.
In anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will stop accepting purchases into the Fund on or around June 15, 2015. Thereafter, the Fund will then begin its process of winding up and liquidating its portfolio assets as soon as reasonably practicable. As a result, the Fund will not be pursuing its investment objective on or around June 15, 2015. Reinvestment of dividends on existing shares in accounts which have selected that option will continue until the liquidation.
The Fund anticipates that it will complete the liquidation on or around the close of business on July 15, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make liquidating distributions to each remaining shareholder, equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and thereafter the Fund will be terminated and dissolved.
If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
* * *
For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
(866) MERK FUND or (866) 637-5386
PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.

Hi puddenhead. Seems more like you are trying to time investments in the short term and over the next 10 years rather than establish a true bucket system. A bucket system goes from very conservative investments to aggressive investments and the aggressive bucket replenishes the conservative bucket every few years when needed. In my thinking it is a method used when you are drawing down investments, ala retirement. Maybe you are just using the "bucket" terminology incorrectly(?). Google 'Bucket System Investments' and take a look.

Career: 3 HR, .219 BA, 29 RB
Does anyone besides me think this initial paragraph sucks? Even a mediocre phenom exceeds theses stats.
If you have a moderate amount of savings, buy a retirement fund dated 10 years after you plan to retire to achieve an adequate stock percentage; if not, buy a date close to actual retirement.
If you have quite a lot of money, get professional advice, hopefully from someone who understands "Moneyball" as an investment approach.

So long a stretch IRAs rules remain unchanged they can be a multi-generational financial blessing:

Source:
what-is-a-stretch-ira?

While I tried to make sense of this link, it seems to say that the "market" is reliant on the "bigger fool" hypothesis for further highs. I'm trying to decide if I should sell my value buys even if they are under water.
OTOH, VHCOX and VPMAX are positive for the year, and it's difficult to justify taking profits (scant, but real) there.The stocks made sense when I bought them, so they may be good in five years.
Since I'm 3 to 4 years from retirement, guess I'll sit, wait for a 10% drop, put in 50% of my cash when it happens, and decide if I like beans and rice if the market doesn't respond in 3 years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements.html
We talked about how people don't have money for retirement.
I don't see how they will get it. Illegal aliens taking unskilled jobs and not legal aliens taking skilled jobs.

Just IMO & confirm the following with any Firm you inquire to want to Hire:
First of all as for buying any Ins. Products? Get at least a 2nd and 3rd Opinon, preferably from your own Ins. Agent and be very skeptical .. They are the #2 most Profitable Sales Item for Businesses. many pay 10% Commission to the Agent selling them.. and another 1% yr thereafter.. Thus why they push them so much ! I tell them, If I want an Insurance agent I'll use the one I have for over 20+ yrs thank you..
After Serving the Financial Industry ( and Several Firms , Including RJ ) thru my Limo business in Both Chicao and Boston for over 30 yrs and now Retired..
1- Understand, if they are a Franchise Business that like other Franchises, are Controlled and guided by the Franchisor ( Corp Office) and while may give individual Offices/Franchises some leaway, so that Your Investing your $ into Individual running is, at best 33% True, the other 66% is Controled by what Corp. Says they have to follow..
2- They are no Different in running their franchise type Office any Differently that a Mutual Fund store or EJ, etc.. They all have guidelines to adhear too by " Corporate".. and Depending on your account size, you may get a new Apprentice to one of the Senior Partners running that Office/Franchise.. but, all being Supervised by The Owenrs & Corporate..
3-Your 'Assigned Advisor Will Come and Go , Don't expect them to be with you ForeverMore.. and depending on your Account Size, their Replacement can be one of the Senior to New staff taking your account over, but again, Under the Guidence of the Franchise Owner(s) and 'Corporate'..
4- and you would be wise to be Frank with them, upfront and in informing them, while you have to disclose All your Assets to Determine your Investing plans, your only going to give them either (a) Their Min. Amt. Required to Open an Account or (b) a max of 25%, whichever is less for at least the 1st 3-5 yrs and/or until They Prove themselves Worthy to trust them with More of your hard Earned $.. " Talk is cheap, actions tell you who they really are and only time will prove that, right? "
5- As for these Message Board, always expect that at least 75% or more advisors have good intentions and are very Experienced and Manage their Own $ and don't use WMF's and thus have No Knowledge of what they could have Been & having one do at least 50% of their Decisions..
And , Like you do when evaluating Mutual Funds & Investment Mgmtn. Firms, unless they are willing to Share where their $ has been for the past 7,10 & 15 yrs to back themselves Up?
I'd be very skeptical of following their Suggestions and Advice where to Put your $..
DYOR and then Get In Person Advice from people you Know that have been as or more Successfull doing what you have and want to do , then wait at least 3 mos., before Investing or making any changes with your $ .
6-Personally? I WOULD Recommend RJ if at least 1 of the Min of 3 WMF you want to Ck into and be honest with them all upfront .. of what your doing, ( Comparison Shopping)
and if you have Portfolio's? Bring or send them copies of their history and performance to Let them Know your not Some Rookie at this investing Game.. as well as Informing them your Law Firm that does Family ( & Co.) Business and a CPA firm that does your Taxes and other things will also have to sign off using them as well..
Do you have a Law Firm and CPA firm ? If not? Why not? my CPA firm I've used for over 20+ yrs ( and Now in Retirement ) ave about $500 yr to do my taxes..= Chump change and never been Audited and to me, that is my #1 Priority doing taxes..( I've Been audited in my early yrs in my business and its a Nightmare! )
If the CPA Firm you use has a Good Reputation with IRS? It can make a Big Difference..
Inclosing> I've Owned some of RJ Stock for yrs now and Only because, they were ( and still are) the Financial firm of the Owners of the Limo Co. I was with .. Then again, they Opened up an account with them to get them as a Co. Client to serve them and other Wealthy Clients & Co.'s they have.. And that stock has been Free $ to me for yrs and the only reason I kept it and let it ride on its own.. I think its about 5% of my Tot Assets as of last yr.. And Opptimistically? Will also be Passed Onto my Heirs and up to them wether to Cash it in or keep it ..They, all being Richer than I ever was at their age and their nice Over paid Jobs and Pensions, don't need the $.. Both Living in the "Beverly Hills of the Midwest" ( NorthShore or Chicago).. and R Yuppies as well ! ( and their Neighborhoods/Assoc. Don't allow owners to Mow their own lawns, it all is done by the Assoc. Landscapers ! Its Disgusting ! ;-)
Hope that helps! ;-0)

Thank for the charts MJG. This one says it all:

I like this one for showing what has happened.

http://blogs.reuters.com/david-rohde/2012/01/13/white-house-the-american-middle-class-is-shrinking/
This is another reason why I wrote that thread about the young giving up the hope for a comfortable retirement.

Hi Dex,
Well I suppose your one-liner, gratuitous comment is calculated to secure some attention. But it falls miserably short if it is designed to inspire a consensus.
It is far too easy to denigrate a person’s working contributions on the Internet without offering a shred of evidence to support your ungracious and unwarranted remarks.
I do not take exception that you might not like Lauricella’s writings. Diverse opinions are what makes for a vibrant marketplace. But if you are going to bad-mouth a person, as a minimum, you should make the case for your defaming remarks.
Please present your evidence. Why don’t you think he learned much? Have you been a consistent reader of his WSJ articles? I have. Although some were repetitive, I personally learned from his writings. Overall, his columns were uniformly informative.
I’m awaiting your contrary comments and examples of poor writings as are others on MFO.
Recently, Lauricella has focused attention on an issue that you constantly address on MFO: retirement. Surely, you’ve accessed these articles. If not, here are Links to two representative samples of Lauricella’s work:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/five-myths-about-retirement-1400976997
http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-some-retirement-brings-grief-1414886644?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth
I would hope these references are helpful to some retirees, but might not apply to your specific situation. Each case is somewhat unique, but all have common elements. Since the columns are prepared for the general public, the glove is never a perfect fit. So adjust and interpret.
Look, Tom Lauricella sure doesn’t need me to defend him. I’m simply annoyed at unsupported scurrilous attacks. Plain and simple, it is character assassination at the lowest levels, and for unspecified purposes.
You are welcome to your unsolicited opinions, but your current comment deserves this repudiation and challenge.
Best Wishes.