Buy ... Sell ... and Ponder (Fall Investing Season ... September, October & November) Lightening up on FI CEFs, concentrating now on Pimco multisectors with significant non-agency mortgage stakes (PCI, PDI, PKO), and adding to FI credit OEFs that are working (loans, mortgages), mainly IOFIX, SEMPX, and EAFAX. Modest equity exposure now, most of it in JENSX, and barely any rate-sensitive fare.
P.S. Of the funds in John's earlier post, be aware that the mortgage fund PMRAX is almost entirely agency mortgages, which are rate sensitive - with little in the still-excellent non-agencies.
P.P.S. Don't tend to post as much at MFO now, given that the retirement-investing style I generally prefer these days -- lots of FI, mostly credit, overall with some equity correlation but lower than equity risk, combined with low equity exposure -- is a pretty rare bird here, so there's not much discussion around it. I just don't spend very much time researching stocks/stock funds -- at least for now.
Beaten-Down Subprime Mortgage Bonds Offered a Decade of Gains -- But What's Ahead?
DoubleLine's Gundlach Warns U.S. Treasury Yields Headed Higher Thanks
@Old_Skeet, appreciate the kind words. I know the Highlands area having hiked there a few times. But I am up in the the northwest corner of the state around Boone/Banner Elk. All I hold now in addition to money market is
IOFIX which I have on a tight leash. With both short and long term rates riding I don’t want to go too far out with CDs hoping for higher yields there further down the road. Also, don’t want to get too tied up there whenever the next market debacle comes along. I am hoping that debacle will be in junk bonds
@Hank, I was advised by most everyone to rent and not buy a vacation home. But I have been renting for many years now during the summers and just don’t enjoy the “feel” of a rental. I want something I can put my own personal touch on and feel more at home. Also, seeing far too many of my friends succumb to this disease or that and figured I better spend some of my money while I can still enjoy it.
@Ted. Since I won’t be around here for awhile, if the S@P does hit 3000 this year let me in advance bow down from afar at your feet. Great call if if comes to pass as we are very close.
Otherwise best of health and good fortune to everyone else. Will be back after the next market debacle however long thst may be before it occurs.
Adding to bond positions What would be the case for investing in SEMPX when you have IOFAX?
Here's the latest fact sheet; see holdings info on p. 2. SEMPX is also a mortgage fund, but as you can see, it's a lot more diversified than
IOFIX ... which is almost entirely legacy non-agency RMBS.
Adding to bond positions @ Junkster: I stand corrected. Cumulative 1 yr. IOFAX (-.38) That included sales charge.
Derf
IOFAX ( 1 yr 7.10 YTD 4.76) is NTF ( no load/sales charge) at a few firms ala Schwab, JPMorgan, etc.
IOFIX the institutional shares ( 1 yr 7.44 YTD 4.92) are available at almost all firms for a small transaction fee. $17 at TD Ameritrade for former Scottrade customers such as myself.
iofix Everyone thank me for not buying IOFIX. If I buy it will tank. Be nice to me.
iofix There's a new (to me, anyway)
fund "presentation," as the
IOFIX guys call it, up on the site, dated July. Just about everything you ever wanted to know about it, all there in living color ...
Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of
purchase price to par on p. 16 of the
IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
P.S. Good info on the manager call, Junkster.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4146697-perfect-mutual-fund-volatile-timesThanks Andy. The crew at Garrison Point Capital have always been very detailed in their presentations. As you allude to, a wealth of information. Above is a link that I don’t believe has been previously posted here on their strategy. I thought Charles had a more thorough analysis. But what I like about this one is the analogy with the old geezer and his bankrupt railroad bonds and the discounted legacy non agencies
IOFIX specializes in. Yes, I know, comparing apples to oranges but you get the drift.
By the way, here is the analysis by Charles
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/lightning-in-a-bottle-alphacentric-income-opportunities-fund-iofix-february-2018/
iofix Great discussion.
However, I am now puzzled by how IOFIX portfolio increased in value by almost 1% in one day, given that it "did not come from any specific event or the repricing of any illiquid bonds".
Thanks
iofix There's a new (to me, anyway)
fund "presentation," as the
IOFIX guys call it, up on the site, dated July. Just about everything you ever wanted to know about it, all there in living color ...
Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of
purchase price to par on p. 16 of the
IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
P.S. Good info on the manager call, Junkster.
iofix Spoke with fund manager Brian Loo today. Friday’s out of the ordinary move did not come from any specific event or the repricing of any illiquid bonds. But simply a broad based move up in a large number of positions. I feel more confident in the strategy of IOFIX and how it will play out in the coming years. Brian is really a nice and down to earth guy and I have enjoyed my conversations with him since IOFIX came to my attention last year.
iofix Impressive performance for 3y, but I might be jittery going forward about a fund comprising "securities backed by credit card receivables, automobiles, aircraft, student loans, and agency and nonagency residential and commercial mortgages ... also ... corporate debt securities".
Altho the AUM's climbing, the trade's not going to last forever, and
IOFIX lives in the junkier end of it, it's still primarily a legacy RMBS fund, the debt trade of the decade;
see p. 2 of this fact sheet.
The credit card, student loan, auto etc. debt makes up 0.5% of the portfolio. No reason to be complacent, but the non-mortgage ABS stake won't likely be a reason to worry about it for a while, anyway.
iofix @Junkster et al.
IOFIX,
3 year chart.
In many years of charts, I've not seen this relative to the top portion of the chart for RSI. This fund has generally maintained an above 70 RSI (daily or weekly chart) and is currently at 93.5. Above 70, for the technical aspect, is a "watch this", as this investment has entered an "overbought" area. To maintain in the 80-90 range is very unusual. Most technical folks would be yelling, sell. One may also see the price spikes near the end of calendar months as noted by
@Junkster, including a most similar pattern from August of 1 year ago.
@Junkster , have you an opinion as to whether the technical aspect is worth regard.
@Tony , if you still receive notifications from MFO; take a look and please offer your technical view opinion.
This link provides a basic description of ABS, relative to some
IOFIX exposure. To the right edge of the page is a list of defined aspects of ABS.
Asset backed securitiesWhatever management has figured out at this time in the investment area(s) is surely working.
Regards,
Catch
iofix
iofix Thank you Junkster.
I have considered DPFNX, but will look closer. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable about the advisor in 2017, which was not helped when I saw this earlier this year ...
Deer Park SEC ProbeHere's side-by-side comparison of
IOFIX and DPFNX this past year (99 peers):
Risk & Return Metrics ...
And looking back 3 years:
Period Performance ...
Batting Averages ...
