Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ARK Investing ETFs: Interview with Cathy Wood
    Notes:
    - Ark ETFs are actively managed ETFs.
    -The concept of "cash-like equities" is mentioned by Ms Woods.
    What are your cash like equity mutual funds?
    -Tesla's future aims at Autonomous Taxi Services.
    -Bitcoin is the flight to safety currency in Cryptocurrency space. Large gains will be captured by the IRS, not the individual investor.
    -Social Media continues to be an important part of modern day financial services.
    -Capitalizing on how the world is changing:
    - Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Energy Storage, DNA Sequencing & The Blockchain.
    - Quantum Computing
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    Still think quantum computing is in its infancy. Question is how small can it be incorporated into a CPU? Artificial intelligence used on self-driving cars are still having avoidable accidents. Fast and reliable eye tracking on dSLRs cameras are still being perfected. The only AI that is working is face and iris recognization on cell phones.
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    Chinese scientists claim to have built a quantum computer that is able to perform certain computations nearly 100 trillion times faster than the world’s most advanced supercomputer, representing the first milestone in the country’s efforts to develop the technology.
    Getting Faster
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    While the current vaccine race has many components over many years to achieve what is now in place; the processing speeds of computer systems to help determine outcomes in many areas provides great benefit now and into the future in our lives.
    From an October, 2019 thread.
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    Separately China and Google have reached this computing milestone.
    Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman was the first to suggest that the mind-bending properties of quantum mechanics could be harnessed to make a new kind of computer. Almost 40 years later and after a decade of significant progress -- and after a claim by Google that its computer had reached a milestone known as “quantum supremacy” -- it’s still easier to describe the approach’s potential importance than to describe how it works.
    image
    why-quantum-computers-will-be-super-awesome-someday-quicktake
  • Stan Druckenmiller on Bubbles and Mania, Parties and Hangovers
    You may remember Stan Druckenmiller as a frequent guest on the old PBS Nightly Business Report. This is not intended to represent a broad spectrum of opinion. Nor is his view anything new (unless you’ve been asleep in a cave for the past decade or longer). Since Wikipedia is a free encyclopedia, I’m quoting an amount of bio that under normal circumstances might be inappropriate.
    Druckenmiller began his financial career in 1977 as a management trainee at Pittsburgh National Bank. He became head of the bank's equity research group after one year. In 1981, he founded his own firm, Duquesne Capital Management. In 1985, he became a consultant to Dreyfus, splitting his time between Pittsburgh and New York, where he lived two days each week. He moved to Pittsburgh full-time in 1986, when he was named head of the Dreyfus Fund. As part of his agreement with Dreyfus, he also maintained management of Duquesne. In 1988, he was hired by George Soros to replace Victor Niederhoffer at Quantum Fund. He and Soros famously "broke the Bank of England" when they shorted British pound sterling in 1992, reputedly making more than $1 billion in profits, in an event known as Black Wednesday. They calculated that the Bank of England did not have enough foreign currency reserves with which to buy enough sterling to prop up the currency and that raising interest rates would be politically unsustainable. He left Soros in 2000 after taking large losses in technology stocks ...
    According to Bloomberg News, on August 18, 2010, Druckenmiller announced the closing of his hedge fund "telling investors he'd been worn down by the stress of trying to maintain one of the best trading records in the industry while managing an 'enormous amount of capital.'" Duquesne Capital Management posts an average annual return of 30 percent without any money-losing year. His funds were down for about 5 percent when he announced his retirement in August. However, they had since erased the losses and closed with a small gain through successful bets that the market would rally in anticipation that the Federal Reserve would announce further "Quantitative Easing" to assist in reducing unemployment and avoid deflation.
    According to The Wall Street Journal, on August 18, 2010, Druckenmiller "told clients that he's returning their money and ending his firm's 30-year run, citing the 'high emotional toll' of not performing up to his own expectations." He indicated it was not easy to make big profits while handling very large sums of money.

    Link to Wikipedia Article

    Postscript: It’s clear to me that one of my money managers has absolutely no concept of what a bubble is. Dodge and Cox clearly doesn’t like to party. Their flagship domestic stock fund, DODGX, is down nearly 10% YTD. It’s negative over 1-year and has averaged just a sedate 5.2% annualized return over the past 3. “What mania?” they might be asking about now.
    :)
  • Google has given us the first experimental evidence that quantum speed-up is achievable, real world
    With respect to Quantum Theory, those of you who may be Amazon Prime members have available, as a benefit, access to Amazon's streaming video service.
    There are many fine programs available there, including a good many free offerings. Among those, there are quite a few excellent science programs, from Nova and other sources, which explore many aspects of Quantum Theory and Mechanics, Einstein's life work, and other related material.
    Also available at no charge are many of the various Ken Burns TV series. It's well worth checking out this resource.
  • Google has given us the first experimental evidence that quantum speed-up is achievable, real world
    Einstein called quantum theory “spooky science.” He never fully accepted it, even when some of his own calculations seemed to support it. Among other things, quantum physics suggests ...
    - The same object can exist in two different places at the same time.
    - By affecting one nearby object, you can simultaneously have the same effect / impact on another object hundreds of miles (or millions of light years) away.
    - Quantum takes encryption to a new level. Theoretically, it would be impossible to intercept, interfere with or break the codes of quantum communications..
    Biggest fear is that China is believed to be far ahead in military / space applications - rumored to have run tests communicating with satellites using quantum.
    @gmarceau is correct. Ted’s ever-ready to pour kerosene on a thread he didn’t initiate. :(
  • Google has given us the first experimental evidence that quantum speed-up is achievable, real world
    My impression with quantum computing is it is not a speed benefit they're really seeking but a complexity problem-solving one. A quantum computer could solve problems current computers with their binary yes/no 0/1 systems can't because life isn't lived or experienced in a binary way.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD October
    Sold off one of my money market mutual funds since there has been news, of late, about liquidity concerns in the repo market.
    Here’s a Bloomberg story about what some are calling the “repo mess.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-22/repo-market-s-liquidity-crisis-has-been-a-decade-in-the-making
    After I fully comprehend @Catch22’s post re quantum computing *, along with why people are buying negative yielding bonds , I’ll try to get my head around repos. However, it seems to me that if repos came unglued it would throw many other global markets into turmoil - probably equities and, even more likely, funds that employ derivatives / leverage in pursuit of outsized gains. If you’ve been waiting for a sharp reversal in interest rates, this might be the cow that finally kicks the can over (to milk a metaphor to death).
    *Here’s a link to Catch’s quantum computing story: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/53776/google-has-given-us-the-first-experimental-evidence-that-quantum-speed-up-is-achievable-real-world
  • Google has given us the first experimental evidence that quantum speed-up is achievable, real world
    Well, this article knowledge is way past my knowledge base; but tech./science remains a valid investment area, in spite of irregular profit patterns over the years.
    Yuh think those NFL replays are pulled up fast now; the processing speed indicated in the link article will eliminate referees.
    Personal note: Nature Magazine remains an excellent source for scientific/technology studies. Published articles have passed through a peer review process.
    Wish the same peer review could apply to published articles regarding investments; in particular those market crash stories that remain in circulation !!!
    Okay, 'outta here. Enjoy.
    Catch
    From Nature Magazine:
    --- Verifying the solution was a further challenge. To do that, the team compared the results with those from simulations of smaller and simpler versions of the circuits, which were done by classical computers — including the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. Extrapolating from these examples, the Google team estimates that simulating the full circuit would take 10,000 years even on a computer with one million processing units (equivalent to around 100,000 desktop computers). Sycamore took just 3 minutes and 20 seconds.
  • How Does A 6% Yield wWith a Tax Break Sound? Try Preferred Stocks!
    FYI: “Preferreds” are one of the best performing investments, yet many investors still avoid them.
    While it’s no surprise that US stocks are the highest performing stocks in the world in 2019, who would have ever thought that those boring, old preferred stocks would have outperformed small & medium capitalized stocks before dividends?
    In fact, to students of financial history, the success of these stocks is not a big surprise.
    Since over a century ago, beginning in the year 1900, preferred stocks have been by far the best performing income investment. As the following chart & table shows, there has rarely been a timeframe when preferreds have not outperformed corporate or treasury bonds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kennethwinans/2019/08/27/how-does-a-6-yield-with-a-tax-break-sound-try-preferred-stocks/#28ab22ad6f0d
    Quantum Online Com:
    http://www.quantumonline.com/QuickStart.cfm
  • Why Now Could Be The Time to Look At Preferred Stocks
    FYI: From time to time, Barron’s writes about preferred stocks, which are of particular interest to income-seeking investors. They aren’t as sexy as common stocks because their price moves—up or down—are more restrained. But that relative stability attracts some folks, as does the offer of juicier dividend yields, compared with those of plain equities. Moreover, when preferred prices fall significantly—as some have now—there’s the potential for capital gains, too.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-now-could-be-the-time-to-look-at-preferred-stocks-51546042631?mod=djem_b_Weekly Feed for Barrons Magazine
    WSJ Preferred Stock Table:
    http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-Preferreds.html?mod=mdc_uss_pglnk
    Quantum Online.Com
    http://www.quantumonline.com/QuickStart.cfm
    KEY-J:
    http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?tickersymbol=KEY-J&sopt=symbol
    COF-G:
    http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?tickersymbol=COF-G&sopt=symbol
    TCF-D:
    http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?tickersymbol=TCF-D&sopt=symbol
  • Thoughts On 2019 Capital Gains
    QCD = Quantum ChromoDynamics. Wait, this isn't a physics forum?
    The only Qualified Charitable Deductions I ever handled were when I helped my mother with hers.
    As far as IRMAA goes, I never met anyone named Irma(a). Nor, with good tax planning, will I ever pay an Income Related Monthly Adjustment (surcharge) Amount on my future Medicare premiums. I'm still dealing with ACA premiums that are much higher than Medicare premiums even with IRMAA surcharges. Such are the tribulations of youth.
  • 10 Funds To Buy For High-Yield Preferred Stocks
    FYI: (I highly recommend preferred stocks or funds for stability and income. I held PFF for many years, selling to use proceeds to fry other fish.)
    Preferred stocks – a high-yield asset that’s typically referred to as a stock-bond “hybrid” because it has characteristics of each – are treading water this year after a strong showing in 2017.
    But that’s OK. Preferred stocks typically aren’t bought for upside potential – it’s about stability and income.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Click On View All:
    https://www.fidelity.com/insights/investing-ideas/preferred-stocks-funds-to-watch
    WSJ Preferred Stock Tables:
    http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-Preferreds.html?mod=mdc_uss_pglnk
    Quantum Online.Com:
    http://www.quantumonline.com/QuickStart.cfm
  • Interactive Brokers Takes Top Spot in Online Broker Ranking
    IB was one of hardest trading platforms I ever used. Sort like learning quantum physics.... Had to give it up. After two months of use
  • Jason Zweig: How To Lose 93% Of Your Money… And Be Happy About It
    On average, in the long run, you will lose money if you hold them [bear market funds]. Over time, stocks tend to go up more -- and more often -- than they go down.
    Since finance isn't physics with natural laws such as gravity--and even Newtonian physics has been challenged in the quantum age--why should anyone assume the above is axiomatic? What are the underlying reasons for what has happened in the past to markets and do those same reasons for the stock market's rise exist today to the same extent as they have in the past?
  • Larry Swedroe: Why Do Hedge Funds Exist?
    Good question, Ted.
    Hedge funds can provide diversification to an institution or family office portfolio of long stocks and bonds. Mixing an uncorrelated asset stream into a portfolio can help "straigthen out the line."
    Some in the public have a misconception about hedge funds. Most hedge funds are not swinging for the fences. They seek to provide better risk-adjusted returns than the underlying market they trade.
    I can tell you that getting the short side right (with its borrowing costs and spikey moves) is a quantum leap more difficult than beating the index on the long side. And beating on the long side is one of the hardest things to do in investing. This is why most potential investors ask first about the shorting philosophy/methodology.
    The best hedge funds generate alpha on the long and short side over time and use leverage properly. It's generally easier for smaller funds to accomplish this feat, as they are more nimble. Paradoxically, many allocators who have to justify their jobs feel safer recommending "name brand" hedge funds which are typically quite large.
  • Jim Rogers Bracing For Crash
    He is also famous for moving to Singapore (with his third wife) saying America is through.
    If he hadn't run Quantum with Soros (from 1970 to 1980
    1) he would still be poor 2) he wouldn't be able to afford three wives or move to Singapore 4) he would have had to stay home and work for a living and not gallivant all over the world in a Mercedes and (best of all)
    5) No one would listen to him or care what he thinks.