Reply to
@Junkster:
Hi Jungster,
You must do very well with your investing program given your psychic powers. I presume you possess that power since you somehow envisioned something in my MFO post that never happened. I never edited any comments relative to any personal intelligence quotient. I did not conceive my opening paragraph as directly applying to me; it was inserted as a general, pity quote. Nothing more was intended.
It is true that when I’m alone in a room, I am the most intelligent person present. However, when my wife joins me in that room, I’m now the second most intelligent person in that room. I was wise enough to marry into intelligence.
When meeting anyone for the first time, my initial assumption is that they are intelligent. I have yet to be disappointed. Certainly some folks are more intelligent than others, but even that relative standing is transient. It depends on circumstance and subject matter.
I wish you success with your intuitive-based investing style. I certainly agree that prudent money management discipline, patience, cost containment, and risk control are all part of a successful investor’s toolkit.
I’m always baffled by the reluctance of a few MFO members to acknowledge the contributions made by statistical data sets when making an investment decision. Investing is awash in statistical measurements.
When an investor reviews a chart or consults a summary Table, he is being informed by a statistical collection of data. Most simply expressed, statistics are merely counting and organizing in a manner that allows for easier interpretation of information. Not all this information is honestly presented. That’s precisely why I submitted the references posted earlier.
There surely is no magical formula that guarantees an investment profit, but statistics of all sorts are used by intelligent investors to identify their investment opportunities and choices. For example, the broad statistic that equities deliver a positive annual return 70 % of the time with a respectable 6 % rate of real return encourages much of the activity on this fine MFO discussion exchange. The fact that equity prices ultimately reflect corporate profits, and that corporate profits are loosely correlated to national demographics and GDP growth rate are all statistically solid findings.
On a personal level, your decision when to retire, and the required size of your likely nest-egg that impacts that
retirement decision, is informed to some extent by government life expectancy tables that project longevity. Statistics seep into many commonplace decisions.
A proper appreciation of statistical benefits and shortcomings tilt an investor’s success odds just a little in his favor. I agree that intuition should be a component of the investment decision process. But manias, bubbles, panics, and market crashes are all the product of an overactive, emotional investing public.
The currency of Wall Street is statistical data. Main Street would capture more of the business world’s profits if it was more strongly influenced by these same statistics.
You certainly need not agree with my reliance on statistical inputs, but it is an integral part of my investment strategy. I suspect statistics, in an unending variety, guide investment decisions for most MFO investors. To each, his own investing poison. I merely express my preferences. I wish you success using whatever method you freely choose.
I know that you make wise portfolio allocation and selection decisions because I know that you are an intelligent man. Everyone on this Board is intelligent.
Jungster, in Arthur Schopenhauer’s “The Art of Controversy” his 38th stratagem on ways to win an argument is to become personal, insulting and rude. There is no need to default to that trick. Your harsh judgment that I am “arrogant” is not supported by my many postings.
I admit that I attempt to make my case with as strong and as positive a presentation as warranted by supportable data. But I also incorporate data shortcomings in whatever position I advocate. I often admit that I struggle to achieve my target investment goals while simultaneously controlling downside risk. That’s a struggle we all confront in an uncertain investment environment.
I wish you health and continuing success in your investment program.
