REVISION- Portfolio Allocation Hi Heather. Although I think you are set up too conservatively for a +20 year time frame, I think your portfolio is constructed pretty well. And the reason I believe that is that it looks very similar to the way I set mine up. Very similar. We have different names for our categories, but we have the same desire to use proven active management with flexible investment styles. But of course, I am only 2 1/2 years to retirement (hopefully).
You have categories called global asset allocators and tactile long/short. I just lump that together and call it balanced and alternative strategies. But it's similar in that we want good managers to have a lot of investment flexibility, geographically and with asset allocation.
You, 55% in:
WABIX, FPACX, SGENX, GHUIX, AQMIX
me, 40% in
FPACX, FAAFX, MACSX, PAUIX, RGHVX
Then we have your more conventional equity/bond mix.
you 50/50 mix, YAFFX, SFGIX / DBLTX, OSTIX, TTRZX, FPNIX
me 60/40 mix, YAFFX, ARIVX, GPGOX, OAKIX, ODVYX / MWTRX, LSBRX, PRWBX, FGBRX
I will say, I keep ~10% out of this "core" part of the portfolio to move around with the hopes of adding alpha. Not sure I really do.
So, can't argue with your portfolio structure, but, I'll give my 2cents on other stuff. I don't know much about some of your flexible allocation funds, but I do think you have way to much allocated to them. I can see where you are coming from - trying to reduce volatility, but 55% of the portfolio? I'd knock that back to maybe 30% with FPACX, WABIX and one other. I might then go with 50% in stock funds and 20% in bond funds. There are some real good capital-preservation equity managers listed on this sight to chose from - or even index funds to fill some of the large cap equity portion. Re-evaluate in 10 years and bring it closer to a 60:40 or 50:50 mix down the road if you like.
Anyway, I like what you did and I guess you have to go with your gut on risk versus reward. But keep in mind, like others have said, volatility is not the same as risk over a long investment horizon (by the way, I do equate volatility to risk for shorter horizons).
Good luck and nice job.
Sell JAOSX and buy SFGIX? I've pulled the trigger: I put in an order to Schwab to sell JAOSX and buy SFGIX with the proceeds. I finally just asked myself this: If I had cash to invest and no history in either fund, which would I buy? There was no doubt as to the answer.
Sell JAOSX and buy SFGIX? Reply to
@Maurice: Like you said, I wouldn't dream of selling out of Matthews, but it doesn't have to be either/or. Although I'm not entirely satisfied with
SFGIX yet (Andrew F. hasn't proven so far, imho, that he's going to be successful as an ex-Asia investor), I'd been looking for a broad EM fund run like a Matthews fund, and Seafarer is a natural on that score.
Sell JAOSX and buy SFGIX? I've held JAOSX on and off for about six years and it's been volatile in a predictable enough manner that it's been one of my few market-timing successes (I bought in 2008, sold half in early 2010, bought more at the end of 2011) so I've done pretty well in it despite its poor recent performance.
But though I tend to like funds with high conviction managers (JAOSX has 49.45% of its AUM in its top 10 holdings), a mandate that lets them invest broadly (JAOSX can go anywhere internationally and can even put 20% of assets into U.S. stocks), a good long-term track record, and poor recent results (e.g. Fairholme), I am beginning to lose faith in Brent Lynn and am considering selling it (this is a good year for me to harvest capital gains) and buying SFGIX instead.
It's not an exact fit, since JAOSX can go pretty much anywhere and SFGIX is emerging markets, but in recent years JAOSX is mostly EM anyway.
Aside from the fact that Janus seems a pretty disreputable asset manager these days (though JAOSX's manager has been with the fund since 2001 and has over $1 million invested in it), I have trouble forgiving him taking such a huge stake in Petrobras. I live in Brazil, and Petrobras may be cheap enough to invest in now, but a few years anyone following this country or this company even slightly could see the warning signs.
On the other hand, to walk away from a high-conviction manager with a great long term record after a few bad years seems like the exact way to have subpar returns.
Thoughts?
Is It Time To Buy Some Shares In SFGIX I'd wait until it kicks above some standard moving-average metric, pick one ... it's below all of them, and has been below the 20 since the end of April, so I think at the very minimum, I'd hold out until it breaks above the 20 and stays there a few days at least.
Glad you asked the question -- I want to go back to adding small amounts to SFGIX at some point, and your post got me started thinking about a target level for taking the plunge.
REVISION- Portfolio Allocation All,
Many thanks for all your feedback regarding my proposed portfolio allocation that I submitted under an earlier post. The purpose of this post is to publish a revised allocation and solicit your constructive feedback. Thank you in advance for your assistance.
Full disclosure: From the mid 90's until 2007 my investing style was your classic "boglehead" index investor and abandoned that strategy at the absolute wrong time. Lesson learned. While the past 5 years have been kind to long biased stock and bond investors it is my opinion that the next 5 years will not be so kind. Therefore I am structuring a portfolio that I hope will smooth out the volatility and allow me to stay the course. Fire away with your comments!!!!
Global Asset Allocators:
15%- Wells Fargo Advantage Absolute Return (GMO), WABIX
10%- FPA Crescent, FPACX
10%- First Eagle, SGENX
Core Stock:
5%- Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income, SFGIX
0%- Yacktman Focused, YAFFX
Tactical/ Long-Short:
12.5%- Good Harbor US Tactical Core, GHUIX
7.5%- AQR Managed Futures, AQMIX
Bonds- Flexible
7.5%- Doubleline Total Return, DBLTX
7.5%- Osterweis Strategic Income, OSTIX
7.5%- Templeton Global Total Return, TTRZX
17.5%-FPA New Income, FPNIX
Note: I'm using FPA New Income for cash reserves and my plan is to add to core stock positions during market declines. I'm also interested in learning more about the new RiverPark Strategic Income fund and may add that.
Thanks!
Heather
Is It Time To Buy Some Shares In SFGIX Fish or cut bait? Sometimes it is wise to cut bait. I know what you're talking about, I know what you mean. There's a great deal that's just too complex for me, too. But in this case, from Square One, I have been betting on Foster's own acumen. I hope I was correct. I still think it's simply too early to give up on this one. SFGIX.
Is It Time To Buy Some Shares In SFGIX The more I spend thinking about it, the more I think this type of judgment is something I'm not capable of making. When you buy a fund, you're buying a basket of securities run by some manager, so you probably buy it because you have (1) an opinion on those securities, possibly including things like the currency they trade in or, (2) an opinion on the manager. I don't think I'm capable of (1) in any intelligent way. I've looked at some of the holding of SFGIX - I don't have anything intelligent to say about any of them - and I've looked at relative valuations between developing and developed stock - again I don't have anything to say about them. As for (2), Andrew Foster appears to be very bright and very capable.
The more I think about it, I don't know what I think about the wisdom of owning some slice of the market that I don't have any particular conviction in. Nothing I've seen has convinced me that I have any special insight into the prospects of emerging market stocks and I wonder if it is wise to have any more or less than I would have in an index fund. As for risk control, I can always hold more cash and less stock.
I've sold off my SFGIX for tax purposes and I'm waiting the requisite 30 days before I do anything with the money. I'm leaning towards rolling the money into VSS and VIG, which are the index funds I hold, but I don't know and I don't love the idea of abandoning something that has lost value.
Is It Time To Buy Some Shares In SFGIX Reply to
@David_Snowball: After Reading Your September Commentary I Have Decided To Purchase Shares in
SFGIX This Week.
Is It Time To Buy Some Shares In SFGIX I will likely sell WAEMX and use SFGIX for part of my emerging market exposure.
Is It Time To Buy Some Shares In SFGIX Is It Time To Buy Some Shares Of SFGIX, Or Should I Hold Off And See What happens To Emerging Market Stocks In September!!!
Betting On A Revival Of Foreign Small Stocks I have sold SFGIX. Keeping GPIOX and MSMLX.
Final Portfolio Allocation Review 13 funds, Heather, is a bit beyond what I'd want to bother taking the time to track and "babysit." Can you get this portfolio down to 8 or 9 funds? Spread out your money TOO much and you end up just diluting your profits. KISS it. Simplify:
EXAMPLE:
1. Domestic CORE, maybe a good balanced fund like MAPOX, mentioned above.
2. Domestic small-cap (MSCFX? From the same shop: Mairs and Power)....Or TRP PRSVX.
3. Domestic BONDS--- nothing longer than intermediate-term. DODIX, DBLTX. DLFNX.
(keep your bond stake small for several more years. You have 20+ years to retirement. You want this animal to GROW. Make sure, when the mutual funds offer you the choice to take pay-outs or to RE-INVEST them, that you do the LATTER!)
4. INTERNATIONAL, global: MAPIX, SFGIX (mentioned above, in your own note) and TBGVX.
5. World bonds: MAINX.
6. A small stake in EM bonds. No more than 3% or so of your total. Right now would be a perfect moment to buy-in because they are so depressed: PREMX, FNMIX.
You can't hope to cover EVERY base. Later on you can get more complicated with various "sleeves." Make it more complicated than it needs to be and you end up chasing your own tail. -----"Max."
Betting On A Revival Of Foreign Small Stocks Let's hope SFGIX will begin to rise from its doldrums! A lot of us own that one. It is an all-cap fund, I understand.
Early September Buy/Sell/Brief Reasons (if you can) I posted my recent changes in earlier threads/posts.
Here is what I did today.
Bought a small amount CEF(a CEF), and bought MSMLX with initial minimum.
CEF is more of a speculation/trade. We were talking about EM being cheap even before this downturn, so it must be even cheaper now. Thinking of eliminating MAPIX (a very good fund), and slowly increase MSMLX as volatile funds are better when the trend reverses. I might loose much more before it reverses but ready to face it. Moreover, I already have SFGIX, though not an apple-to-apple comparison with MAPIX.
With recent sales (PAUDX, VTIPX, PONDX, MAINX, HSFNX, etc), I am at 19% cash now.
Pondering over where to invest that money.
Hold 70% in my core funds; Some of them are held since 2005/06.
Emerging-Market Stocks Drop To 7-Week Low Reply to
@hank: I'll let SMCWX, CWGIX, ANEFX, MAPIX, ARTGX,
SFGIX, WAFMX & MFLDX do my shopping for me in the EM area.
Mutual funds. Buy,trade hold or sell? My "core" holdings, I don't suppose, are truly CORE funds, designed to be such.
Long term holdings: MACSX since 2003
MAPIX..........2009
PREMX.........2010
However, I plan to stick with what I've got now, long-haul. That includes TRAMX, MAINX, SFGIX, DLFNX, MAPOX and MSCFX. I won't hold and hold for no reason, if the world is going all feces, but I don't pull the switch-eroo very often at all.
Hopefully all this incessant fear over September tapering is bullish Ouch Junkster, that's smart.
Dr. Kuruvilla's impressive academic credentials certainly paying off this year with ETGLX's pharmaceutical holdings. (I like where he got his masters.)
But I'm sure back in late 2011, you would not have been feeling so good watching ETGLX drop 26%, while AKREX (another "group think" darling) dropped only 7%.
Today, both are mid cap 3 year MFO Great Owls, with AKREX being less volatile of the two:
Look, as much as I'm coming to like trend following, I try not to overly apply or advocate it. Nor do I let it dissuade me from acknowledging good fund managers like Asness, Foster, Arnott, Cinnamond.
Everybody spends time in the barrel. The trick is not make a habit of it.
AQRNX,
SFGIX, PAUDX have only struggled since May-ish, after many months of doing very well.
If three years from now AQRNX,
SFGIX, PAUDX, and ARIVX have under-performed, then your criticism would be justified. But three months? Come on.
Hopefully all this incessant fear over September tapering is bullish Recently all I've heard about are the negative consequences over Fed tapering. The market has fallen several percent the past few weeks and this week there was a drastic shift in bearishness in some of the investor polls ala NAAIM and AAII. Guru and TV business pundit Ralph Acampora is now looking for much more downside in the Dow. Normally this bearishness resolves to the upside instead. So we shall see. I am still long LGND with some new money directed to VIAB, but now NPSP is my largest equity holding with ETGLX as my largest (and only) equity fund holding not just due to how well it held during the recent swoon, but because its largest holding is also NPSP. Still hold some floating rate in NFRIX but sold much of it recently.
I never buy a fund based on recommendations on this board but kudos to whoever mentioned ETGLX here a few months back. Please whoever you were stand up and take a bow. It's one of the select few equity funds at all time highs Friday. It's so refreshing to see someone actually recommend a fund that increases one's retirement nest egg instead of the usual groupthink losing or underperforming funds ala AQRNX, SFGIX, PAUDX, and ARIVX to name just a few.