It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
I hope not. I have years of experience w Cinnamond and have a reasonable expectation that this will be the case, but most cannot predict the future w 100% accuracy. Those who can grow their money at a double-exponential rate, causing them to spend less time on forums...The main problem withI think you touched on several good points. I mentioned Arnott before. Both did well when markets went down, but since 2009, PAUIX had a terrible performance compared to the easy SPY. Finding compelling risk-reward funds is what I have done since 2000. It is part of my system, but I stopped following Cinnamond more than 10 years ago.I've not been a fan since losing money investing in ARIVX (I think that was Cinnamond's first solo adventure with his "disciplined" style).
I won't try to defend Mr. Cinnamond's record or explain why I find his approach compelling - I've done this on adifferent thread - and I can sympathize with the feelings one gets from a losing investment that sometimes takes year not to pay off. But to correct something you have said for others: ARIVX was Cinnamond's third fund as a manager and, I believe, second as a lead after ICMAX.
In my experience (and I've invested in three Cinnamond funds), his funds tend to go through a long period of flat performance, followed by fairly rapid appreciation bursts, followed by another period of flat performance. All of this can be readily understood within the technicalities of his style. So, when one is unfortunate to invest towards the end of the run, losses - though rather modest losses - would follow should one sell out before the next run or if Cinnamond decides to liquidate the fund (as he - rather objectionably, imo - did with ARIVX).
To be fair, if you wait for and hold on through the run, the returns might be quite impressive. I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it. Similarly, ICMAX returned ~ 100% over Cinnamond's tenure there (roughly, 2006 - 2011) while SP500 barely broke even during that time.
The guy also jumps from one fund to another = not a great idea.
The main problems:
1) Is he going to be another Arnott in the next 5 years?
My personal investment horizon is 5 - 10 y.2) How much patience is someone supposed to have?
Currently ~ 10% of retirement, but I have just learned of his new fund and may invest more in the future. The main thing holding me back is not Cinnamond's investment approach, but what he did in liquidating ARIVX. To put it bluntly, imo, that was gutless and he let a lot of people down who trusted him to work through the cycle. If that is something you find significant, I am with you 100%.3) What % of your portfolio are you investing with him? The less you invest, the more it's insignificant. For me this is major.
As I tried to explain before, I do not believe myself to be a capable market timer. At most, I pick an investment and look for a good entry point over a few weeks. However, if I were to judge a good entry point for myself, based on my experience w Cinnamond ("flat-burst-flat" [repeat]), I would be most comfortable doing so when his fund has been flat for a while - one of the reasons I invested a substantial amount in PVCMX right after learning about it a few days ago. His max DD's also tend to be rather small, so the main risk - in my eyes - is opportunity cost.4) How do you know when in the start, middle, or end of the cycle? Remember, markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you think. Prof Shiller claimed in 2012, based on valuation, that SPY would make only 4% after inflation in the next 10 years, it made 11%
(link)
I think you are misinterpreting Cinnamond's strategy - or, else, I misunderstand it. The way I see it, he looks for "value" and will buy it in any market irrespective of timing. If he is low on equity, it means he simply cannot find enough value available.5) Cinnamond plays timing hugely, owning less than 20% in stocks is difficult to grasp.
But, I'm a flexible investor who looks beyond categories and is interested in total portfolio risk-reward performance.
Someone's style and goals matter a lot when selecting funds.
How many funds do you own, what trading are you doing,
Unfortunately, MStar no longer provides the record for ARIVX and I could not find another place to chart it w div. I'd invested very early on, perhaps, in the first couple of months - since I followed Cinnamond from ICMAX - w a decent entry point. I remember I was net positive in the end but would not venture on the %. If you can find where to chart it, I would be curious of the PRWCX comparison, since I also own that fund.I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it.
What % did you make less than SPY or PRWCX?
https://www.esgtoday.com/texas-anti-esg-investing-bill-faces-pushback-over-6-billion-cost-to-pensions/Despite declaring that [Texas County & District Retirement System] TCDRS “has never had an ESG policy,” and does not intend to have one, [Executive Director] Bishop said that the bill “would keep us from partnering with some of the best investment managers in the world.” Bishop added:
“If we had to adjust our asset allocation, we estimated it could cost us over $6 billion over the next 10 years. And this would cause our employers cost to more than double.”
-and->Estate beneficiary: If the original depositor of an IRA names their estate as the beneficiary of their account, or did not leave beneficiaries on their IRA, the IRA funds may go to their estate.
Tax treatment of estate-owned DC plans should be no different.Death on or after 1/1/20, [and asset recipient is an] estate entity, non-see-through trust beneficiary of the original depositor's IRA. [elsewhere this is called a nonperson beneficiary]:
[Death before RMDs begin] Move inherited assets into an inherited IRA in the name of the estate or non-see through trust and withdraw the balance by December 31st of the year containing the 5th anniversary of the original depositor's death
[Death after RMDs begin] Move inherited assets into an Inherited IRA in the name of the estate or non-see through trust and begin taking RMDs the year following the year of the original depositor death using their age in the year they passed away.
Ascensus concurs:A “nonperson beneficiary” is an estate, trust or charitable organization. This type of beneficiary has the following options:
- Account owner dies before the required beginning date.... In that case, the account must be depleted by December 31 of the year that includes the 5th anniversary of the account owner’s death.
- Account owner dies on or after required beginning date then the entity may use a life expectancy calculation based on the remaining life expectancy of the decedent.
https://thelink.ascensus.com/articles/2024/2/14/understanding-the-10-year-ruleThe SECURE Act identifies three groups of beneficiaries: eligible designated beneficiaries, noneligible designated beneficiaries, and nonperson beneficiaries.
...
The third group of beneficiaries consists of nonperson beneficiaries (i.e., entities, such as trusts, estates, or charities). Nonperson beneficiaries of account owners who died before their required beginning date (RBD), which is the deadline to begin RMDs, remain subject to the 5-year rule and—with the exception of certain see-through trusts—must distribute the inherited assets within five years.
https://www.natlawreview.com/article/executor-won-t-distribute-estate-what-can-i-doN.J.S.A. 3B:10-23 holds that an executor “is under a duty to settle and distribute the estate of the decedent in accordance with the terms of [the will] and applicable law, and as expeditiously and efficiently as is consistent with the best interests of the estate.…”
I wish the White House (or anybody else) a lot of luck trying to predict where interest rates will be a year or two out.From the Wall Street Journal's analysis of the economic assumptions released with the Biden budget:My recollection is that 5% is dead average for the 10 year note over the past century. Good news: I recall hearing it from Kai Ryssdal on a Marketplace podcast. Bad news: can't track it down.Economic forecasts released Monday as part of the White House’s 2025 budget proposal assume that three-month Treasury bill rates will average 5.1% this year, the same as in 2023, before declining to 4% next year and 3.3% in 2026.
The White House sees the average 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 4.4% this year from 4.1% last year and then declining gradually to 3.7% by the end of this decade.
Those sort of interest rates remind investors that there is an alternative to stocks, which might well occasion a shift from equities and at least the tiniest bit of discipline on the part of managers (fund and otherwise). Jon Sindreu at the Wall Street Journal published an interesting project that suggests that cash might handily beat stocks over the next 12 years and would be pretty competitive with them over the next couple years. His projection of asset class returns, based on "quarters similar to today," puts the two-year APR for stocks at 7.something percent, cash at about 7% and bonds at over 8%. The dominance of stocks would return unless you had a time horizon of five years or more ("How to Invest? More than ever, it depends on who you are?" Wall Street Journal, 3/15/2024)
I like and own WBALX for the more conservative part of the portfolio. 50/50 and quite conservative. Small 230K AUM. When the s--t hits the fan this should lose less. In retirement I hold the mantra, "Do not lose it " in high esteem.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla