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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • QDSNX - A Fund for Retirees?
    Lately, I have been following the AQR Diversifying Strategies N Fund (QDSNX) and been pleasantly surprised by its excellent risk/reward profile.
    The fund company describes its investment approach as follows: "Leveraging AQR’s research and 20-year track record in alternative investing, the Diversifying Strategies Fund is designed to complement an investor’s traditional stock and bond portfolio. The Fund invests in a portfolio of AQR mutual funds, providing exposure to both Absolute Return strategies and Active Multi-Asset strategies."
    With a Standard Deviation of 7%, the fund has a YTD total return of 11.8%, and a 3 Year return of 12.7%. In 2022 it gained 14.5%.
    QDSNX is available at Fidelity with a minimum investment of $2,500 and no transaction fee.
    I am curious of the opinion of anyone who has used this fund in their portfolio.
    Looks like it could fit nicely into a conservative retirement portfolio.
    Fred
  • Portfolio trackers
    @MikeW
    I have used Quicken for decades to monitor and manage our multiple accounts. Even though we are retired, and have consolidated most, we have two R/O’s ( one managed by advisor), Roth IRAs, two non retirement account, small joint account and I kept my TSP account.
    BTW it is easy to pick an index or MMF that matches TSP funds. You can use that ticker but name it anything you want “ TSP G Fund”.
    Quicken has an automatic link to M* that allows you to do an “Xray” of any and all accounts.
    it is not as detailed as the one on the website and I have found sometimes the % are way off. On the website you can drill down and look and see each funds % but not on the abbreviated version.
  • Portfolio trackers
    I don't find Schwab's or Fidelities portfolio analysi very robust, and do not want to give either one the ability to download my account information from another brokerage.
    I use Quicken to download my transactions from my brokerage accounts into the correct account on Quicken. It is seamless. I keep my passwords separate, although Schwab has set up a "higher level security" (?) for their downloads.
    I then cluster the accounts ( Non retirement, Spouse retirement, my retirement etc) in Quicken
    M* "Legacy" will easily import the combined accounts into a similarly titled ( Non Retirement for example) watch list or actual portfolio, as a tab delineated Excel compatible file hat Quicken produces.
    The "legacy" M* watch lists allow import of Ticker symbol, ave price per share, and number of shares to give you an accurate portfolio. It doesn't handle some things like CDs Bonds or some MFs but I just lumb all those into "Cash"
    You then have an accurate portfolio by % equity, sector weightings, etc in M* "Porfolio Xray".
    The new "Investor" watch lists at M* apparently do not allow "Portfolio Xray" and the new M* Investor does not allow import from Quicken, or anywhere else other than your brokerage, apparently.
    I would be very careful about sharing my brokerage log in with M*.
    Unless they add this import feature if they drop "Legacy" I will have no reason to continue M*
    Quicken has several ways to characterize each ticker symbol, all customizable. "Security Type" "Investment Goal" and "Asset Allocation" For mutual funds you can specify an asset allocation or use Quicken's
    However under Security Type and Investment Goal , only one choice is allowed. So it is hard to determine your allocation to "Developed Small value" for example. You can set a % in Asset Allocation but you have to look it up yourself.
    Once you get it set up, it takes about a minute or less to update your portfolio
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX
    The main problem with
    I've not been a fan since losing money investing in ARIVX (I think that was Cinnamond's first solo adventure with his "disciplined" style).

    I won't try to defend Mr. Cinnamond's record or explain why I find his approach compelling - I've done this on a
    different thread - and I can sympathize with the feelings one gets from a losing investment that sometimes takes year not to pay off. But to correct something you have said for others: ARIVX was Cinnamond's third fund as a manager and, I believe, second as a lead after ICMAX.
    In my experience (and I've invested in three Cinnamond funds), his funds tend to go through a long period of flat performance, followed by fairly rapid appreciation bursts, followed by another period of flat performance. All of this can be readily understood within the technicalities of his style. So, when one is unfortunate to invest towards the end of the run, losses - though rather modest losses - would follow should one sell out before the next run or if Cinnamond decides to liquidate the fund (as he - rather objectionably, imo - did with ARIVX).
    To be fair, if you wait for and hold on through the run, the returns might be quite impressive. I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it. Similarly, ICMAX returned ~ 100% over Cinnamond's tenure there (roughly, 2006 - 2011) while SP500 barely broke even during that time.
    I think you touched on several good points. I mentioned Arnott before. Both did well when markets went down, but since 2009, PAUIX had a terrible performance compared to the easy SPY. Finding compelling risk-reward funds is what I have done since 2000. It is part of my system, but I stopped following Cinnamond more than 10 years ago.
    The guy also jumps from one fund to another = not a great idea.
    The main problems:
    1) Is he going to be another Arnott in the next 5 years?
    I hope not. I have years of experience w Cinnamond and have a reasonable expectation that this will be the case, but most cannot predict the future w 100% accuracy. Those who can grow their money at a double-exponential rate, causing them to spend less time on forums...
    2) How much patience is someone supposed to have?
    My personal investment horizon is 5 - 10 y.
    3) What % of your portfolio are you investing with him? The less you invest, the more it's insignificant. For me this is major.
    Currently ~ 10% of retirement, but I have just learned of his new fund and may invest more in the future. The main thing holding me back is not Cinnamond's investment approach, but what he did in liquidating ARIVX. To put it bluntly, imo, that was gutless and he let a lot of people down who trusted him to work through the cycle. If that is something you find significant, I am with you 100%.
    4) How do you know when in the start, middle, or end of the cycle? Remember, markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you think. Prof Shiller claimed in 2012, based on valuation, that SPY would make only 4% after inflation in the next 10 years, it made 11%
    (link)
    As I tried to explain before, I do not believe myself to be a capable market timer. At most, I pick an investment and look for a good entry point over a few weeks. However, if I were to judge a good entry point for myself, based on my experience w Cinnamond ("flat-burst-flat" [repeat]), I would be most comfortable doing so when his fund has been flat for a while - one of the reasons I invested a substantial amount in PVCMX right after learning about it a few days ago. His max DD's also tend to be rather small, so the main risk - in my eyes - is opportunity cost.
    5) Cinnamond plays timing hugely, owning less than 20% in stocks is difficult to grasp.
    But, I'm a flexible investor who looks beyond categories and is interested in total portfolio risk-reward performance.
    Someone's style and goals matter a lot when selecting funds.
    How many funds do you own, what trading are you doing,
    I think you are misinterpreting Cinnamond's strategy - or, else, I misunderstand it. The way I see it, he looks for "value" and will buy it in any market irrespective of timing. If he is low on equity, it means he simply cannot find enough value available.
    I own a whole bunch of funds but most with only a toe-hold position: either closed or ones I'd like to make myself keep track of more closely.
    Sadly, I am often time-constrained and cannot properly focus on investing for extended periods. When I have time, I sometimes do a bit of equity trading, but that's about it.
    I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it.

    What % did you make less than SPY or PRWCX?
    Unfortunately, MStar no longer provides the record for ARIVX and I could not find another place to chart it w div. I'd invested very early on, perhaps, in the first couple of months - since I followed Cinnamond from ICMAX - w a decent entry point. I remember I was net positive in the end but would not venture on the %. If you can find where to chart it, I would be curious of the PRWCX comparison, since I also own that fund.
  • Real life results from the balanced fund approach as you approach retirement
    I am 66 years old and have managed my own fund choices since 2018 and I have dutifully followed the advice of lowering my exposure to the stock market as I get closer to retirement. So, since June of 2018 I have been very close to a 50-50 Stock Bond portfolio with the stocks weighted towards the value end vs the growth end. The bond portfolio was weighted to the short end of the duration. Almost all of my fund choices can be found in the Great owls or the Honor Roll as described on this website. I just did an analysis of my past 5.75 years relative to if I had just left everything invested in the S&P 500.
    The results are disappointing, and I do not understand the reasoning now of the balanced fund approach etc. So my overall return in this time period was 32% which works out to be 5.54% annually. The S&P 500 returned 84.09% or 14.62% annually. In real dollars I went from 660K to 871K. The S&P 500 would had taken me to 1.44Million.
    In the up markets I got on average 61% of the return of the S&P 500 which I am okay with because I was not exposed as much to the market.
    It's the down market. I managed to capture 85% of the down market, The Bond portfolio failed to moderate the losses. In 2022 in a down market I captured 107% of the loss suffered by the S&P 500 I was invested at 52% stocks and 48% the whole time period in 2022.
    I am slowly learning that almost all financial advisor advice is BS sorry for my French.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/24
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/24
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    No changes.
    Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
    Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, Newer IRAs 4.75%
    (TIAA Declaration Year 3/1 - 2/28)
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous 4.375%).
    Edit/Add, 4/1/24. April rate is 4.25%.
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1413/thread
  • Astor Macro Alternative Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314414/000158064224001866/astor-macro_497.htm
    497 1 astor-macro_497.htm 497
    Astor Macro Alternative Fund
    Class A Shares ASTMX
    Class C Shares ASTGX
    Class I Shares GBLMX
    (a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust)
    Supplement dated March 28, 2024 to
    the Prospectus and Statement of Information dated November 17, 2023
    The Board of Trustees of Northern Lights Fund Trust (the “Board”) has determined based on the recommendation of the investment adviser of the Astor Macro Alternative Fund (the “Fund”), that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on April 29, 2024.
    Effective at the close of business March 28, 2024, the Fund will not accept any purchases and will no longer pursue its stated investment objectives. The Fund may begin liquidating its portfolio and may invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
    Prior to April 29, 2024, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO APRIL 29, 2024 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT 1-877-738-0333.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement and the existing Prospectus dated November 17, 2023, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated November 17, 2023, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-877-738-0333.
  • Texas pulls $8.5 billion from BlackRock funds, and in related news ...
    The notion that because you or I invest in a Blackrock ETF, we give our proxy to Larry Fink is absurd. And its anti-democratic.
    The notion that because you or I invest in virtually any mutual fund, we give our proxy to ISS or Glass-Lewis is absurd. That's the elephant in the room, more so because this duopoly advises nearly all (90%) fund sponsors on how they should vote their proxies.
    https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2023/01/30/the-controversy-over-proxy-voting-the-role-of-asset-managers-and-proxy-advisors/
    Anti-democratic? The corporate world was never democratic. Dollars, not people (dēmos - "common people") hold the power. If you don't like the way Blackrock funds are being run, vote your fund's of directors out of office. See how much sway your paltry dollars have. Or mine.
    image
    ESG means different things to different people, in no small part due to the marketing efforts of financial management companies to muddy the waters. On one end of the spectrum is impact investing, where one invests in companies and technologies specifically to improve the state of the environment. On the other end of the spectrum is what Blackrock and others call ESG integration - considering risk factors like increased exposure to flooding due to a changing environment - among all the risk factors considered when deciding whether to invest in a company.
    https://www.blackrock.com/lu/intermediaries/themes/sustainable-investing/esg-integration
    That's just prudent investing. And good marketing - slapping a label like ESG (popular until recently) onto something that is standard operating procedure. Failure to consider all significant risk factors could be considered investment malpractice.
    For example, last year Texas proposed SB 1446 that would have prohibited state pensions from investing with any management company that considered ESG factors.
    Despite declaring that [Texas County & District Retirement System] TCDRS “has never had an ESG policy,” and does not intend to have one, [Executive Director] Bishop said that the bill “would keep us from partnering with some of the best investment managers in the world.” Bishop added:
    “If we had to adjust our asset allocation, we estimated it could cost us over $6 billion over the next 10 years. And this would cause our employers cost to more than double.”
    https://www.esgtoday.com/texas-anti-esg-investing-bill-faces-pushback-over-6-billion-cost-to-pensions/
  • Distributing money out of Inherited Estate DC / 403(b)
    @msf thank you the detailed feedback.
    The situation is/was somewhat complicated so I thought to distill it a bit.
    In summary: Person A had employer-sponsored retirement accounts with Person B as a beneficiary and me as a sole contingent beneficiary. After A died, B should have inherited the accounts as an individual beneficiary. But B died very shortly thereafter w/o the time for the inheritance process to even begin.
    I was B's sole beneficiary and am the executor of the estate. It might have seemed reasonable for me to simply inherit A's accounts then, but Fido decided to pass them into B's estate since they were not formally in B's possession at the time of death (i.e., they deemed my beneficiary statuses with both A and B invalid wrt these accounts).
    So, now I am trying to figure out how much time I have to distribute these funds from the estate to myself and getting different answers depending where I look / whom I ask.
  • Distributing money out of Inherited Estate DC / 403(b)
    Could you clarify the situation? It sounds like the defined contribution plans did not indicate a beneficiary, so by default the estate inherited the assets. Further it sounds like the assets are still in the DC plans, just owned by the estate of the deceased.
    If that's what has happened, you seem to be asking how long does the estate have to move the assets out of the DC plans?
    For a regular inherited retirement account the answer is pretty straightforward,
    Perhaps. Worth looking at, for background. If an IRA owner dies with no beneficiary named, the IRA is retitled as an estate IRA. One has 5 years, not 10, to move the money out of the IRA assuming that death occurred before RMDs were required to begin.
    Here's a page from Fidelity that illustrates the complexity even with IRAs:
    https://www.fidelity.com/building-savings/learn-about-iras/inherited-ira-rmd
    Sections of interest:
    >Estate beneficiary: If the original depositor of an IRA names their estate as the beneficiary of their account, or did not leave beneficiaries on their IRA, the IRA funds may go to their estate.
    -and-
    Death on or after 1/1/20, [and asset recipient is an] estate entity, non-see-through trust beneficiary of the original depositor's IRA. [elsewhere this is called a nonperson beneficiary]:
    [Death before RMDs begin] Move inherited assets into an inherited IRA in the name of the estate or non-see through trust and withdraw the balance by December 31st of the year containing the 5th anniversary of the original depositor's death
    [Death after RMDs begin] Move inherited assets into an Inherited IRA in the name of the estate or non-see through trust and begin taking RMDs the year following the year of the original depositor death using their age in the year they passed away.
    Tax treatment of estate-owned DC plans should be no different.
    Inheriting a 403(b) Plan: What to Do & How It Works
    https://www.missionsq.org/products-and-services/403(b)-defined-contribution-plans/403(b)-inheritance-beneficiary.html
    A “nonperson beneficiary” is an estate, trust or charitable organization. This type of beneficiary has the following options:
    • Account owner dies before the required beginning date.... In that case, the account must be depleted by December 31 of the year that includes the 5th anniversary of the account owner’s death.
    • Account owner dies on or after required beginning date then the entity may use a life expectancy calculation based on the remaining life expectancy of the decedent.
    Ascensus concurs:
    The SECURE Act identifies three groups of beneficiaries: eligible designated beneficiaries, noneligible designated beneficiaries, and nonperson beneficiaries.
    ...
    The third group of beneficiaries consists of nonperson beneficiaries (i.e., entities, such as trusts, estates, or charities). Nonperson beneficiaries of account owners who died before their required beginning date (RBD), which is the deadline to begin RMDs, remain subject to the 5-year rule and—with the exception of certain see-through trusts—must distribute the inherited assets within five years.
    https://thelink.ascensus.com/articles/2024/2/14/understanding-the-10-year-rule
    That's all from the tax perspective. From the estate administration perspective (state law), I'm not convinced that even in the "simple" case of an estate IRA one is allowed to delay five years. My understanding is that the executor (or administrator) is allowed however much time is necessary to distribute estate assets, but not more. For example:
    N.J.S.A. 3B:10-23 holds that an executor “is under a duty to settle and distribute the estate of the decedent in accordance with the terms of [the will] and applicable law, and as expeditiously and efficiently as is consistent with the best interests of the estate.…”
    https://www.natlawreview.com/article/executor-won-t-distribute-estate-what-can-i-do
    Usual disclaimer: I am not a lawyer, this is not legal advice. It is just general information that may not apply to your situation.
  • Distributing money out of Inherited Estate DC / 403(b)
    I've recently inherited some DC & 403(b) funds which - by the grace of Fido - ended up in an Estate account.
    I've talked to several CPAs / CFFs and still could not get a clear picture re how many years I have to distribute the funds out of these accounts. For a regular inherited retirement account the answer is pretty straightforward, but for an estate IRS website alone seems to give no less than 3 different answers.
    Does anyone here have a clue or a good reference?
  • PKSAX/PKSCX/PKSFX - Virtus KAR Small-Cap Core Fund - any backdoors?
    According to their web page, a defined benefit plan may be one option to get in should your employer offer it.
    https://www.virtus.com/products/kar-small-cap-core#shareclass.A/period.quarterly
    Once you are able to purchase the fund in a defined benefit plan, you can probably send a copy of your defined benefit account statement exhibiting fund ownership to the transfer agent so can open an account with them, but you need to confirm this with the transfer agent first.
    Excerpt:
    Effective July 31, 2018, this Fund is closed to new investors, but remains open to Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit plans. Please see the prospectus for these and other exceptions.
    From the January 29, 2024 prospectus:
    https://www.virtus.com/products/documents/kar-small-cap-core#Statutory+Prospectus_431
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INVESTORS
    Virtus KAR Small-Cap Core Fund is no longer available for purchase by new investors (except as described below). The fund continues to be available for purchase by existing investors; however, the fund reserves the right to refuse any order that may disrupt the efficient management of the fund.As of the date of this prospectus, only the following investors may make purchases in the Virtus KAR Small-Cap Core Fund
    :▪ Current shareholders of the fund, whether they hold their shares directly or through a financial intermediary, may continue to add to their accounts through the purchase of additional shares and through the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Financial intermediaries may continue to purchase shares on behalf of existing shareholders only.
    ▪ Exchanges into the fund may only be made by shareholders with an existing account in the fund.
    ▪ An investor who has previously entered into a letter of intent with the Distributor prior to the closing date may fulfill the obligation.
    ▪ Trustees of the fund, trustees/directors of affiliated open- and closed-end funds, and directors, officers and employees of Virtus, its affiliates, and their family members, may continue to open new accounts.
    ▪ New and additional investments may be made through firm or home office discretionary platform models within mutual fund advisory (WRAP) programs and other fee-based programs established with the Distributor prior to July 31, 2018.
    ▪ The fund will also remain open to Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit retirement plans and will continue to accept payroll contributions and other types of purchase transactions from both existing and new participants in such plans.
    Notwithstanding the above exceptions, the fund may discontinue new and subsequent sales through any financial intermediary at its discretion.The fund and the Distributor reserve the right to modify these exceptions at any time, including on a case-by-case basis
  • Texas pulls $8.5 billion from BlackRock funds, and in related news ...
    The hypocrisy of a state supposedly devoted to individual freedom and "small government" telling its citizens where they can and cannot put their money is too rich for words.
    The lists do not make sense in the context of The Texas Permanent School fund which is an institutional investment fund supporting Texas schools, not a 401k or pension fund. While Blackrock managed some of their money they obviously did to use retail mutual funds to do so.
    Blackrock has come under fire recently for abandoning it's "green" goals and not doing enough to stop funding oil companies etc, but Texas is obviously aiming at Larry Fink for having raised such concerns about Climate Change several years ago. His backing off isn't enough and now he is being picked out as a political target and to make headlines for Abbott and Paxton.
    I doubt it is a coincidence that this comes just as Paxton's criminal trial for investment fraud is about to start.
    Many other US firms, not on the list, have huge "ESG" commitments and funds, such as the seven Billion dollar Blackstone Green Private Credit Fund (the largest fund of it's type), and GMO Climate Change Fund, but they are not on the list.
    I wonder if the mutual fund list is aimed at the The Texas teachers Retirement fund both a defined benefit plan and a 403b plan with mutual funds that people can choose.
    The mutual fund list doesn't make sense either. It is only a fraction of "Climate Change Funds" available, and seems like it was selected by running a screen ( maybe at MFO?) for 0% energy investments, "ESG " in the name ( but there are dozens of funds not here) or based on M* Sustainability score or some such other marginal criteria.
    As most fund companies have ESG funds, a complete list would eliminate almost all companies
    Why didn't they prohibit investments in the entire families of those funds, like Vanguard and Fidelity, also? Maybe because they would be open to plan participants suits for not managing the retirement accounts in the most cost effective manner possible. Yale Hospital just had to cough up $1,000,000 in a class action suit for not negotiating downward a Fidelity fee.
    The spreadsheet is very useful for screening for Climate Change funds. I own several.
  • Biden's budget assumption: interest rates might actually be "higher for longer"
    From the Wall Street Journal's analysis of the economic assumptions released with the Biden budget:
    Economic forecasts released Monday as part of the White House’s 2025 budget proposal assume that three-month Treasury bill rates will average 5.1% this year, the same as in 2023, before declining to 4% next year and 3.3% in 2026.
    The White House sees the average 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 4.4% this year from 4.1% last year and then declining gradually to 3.7% by the end of this decade.
    My recollection is that 5% is dead average for the 10 year note over the past century. Good news: I recall hearing it from Kai Ryssdal on a Marketplace podcast. Bad news: can't track it down.
    Those sort of interest rates remind investors that there is an alternative to stocks, which might well occasion a shift from equities and at least the tiniest bit of discipline on the part of managers (fund and otherwise). Jon Sindreu at the Wall Street Journal published an interesting project that suggests that cash might handily beat stocks over the next 12 years and would be pretty competitive with them over the next couple years. His projection of asset class returns, based on "quarters similar to today," puts the two-year APR for stocks at 7.something percent, cash at about 7% and bonds at over 8%. The dominance of stocks would return unless you had a time horizon of five years or more ("How to Invest? More than ever, it depends on who you are?" Wall Street Journal, 3/15/2024)
    I wish the White House (or anybody else) a lot of luck trying to predict where interest rates will be a year or two out.
    I also recall hearing, years ago, that the long-term average for the 10 year Treasury being around 5%, but I know I didn't hear it from your source.
    I have to laugh, or maybe yell, at young people today whining about 6-7% mortgage rates (which are also normalized, if memory serves). I bought my first house in 1975 and paid 8.5% which was the going rate. It went up into double-digits a few years later.
    Maybe the era we're in with "high" (normalized) interest rates will encourage young people to not borrow so much, and instead try to live more within their means. I learned that valuable lesson from my father, who was a struggling young man when the Great Depression hit. Most people today cannot comprehend what those people went through.
    As for cash being competitive with other asset classes, I have about 11% of my retirement portfolio in a 5.2% money market, which makes for a nice stable portion, yet still earning something -- unlike it would have a few years ago when "cash is trash."
  • Fidelity® Global High Income Fund will be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/225322/000119312524066591/d782193d497.htm
    497 1 d782193d497.htm FIDELITY GLOBAL HIGH INCOME FUND
    Supplement to the
    Fidelity® Global High Income Fund
    June 29, 2023
    Prospectus
    Reorganization. The Board of Trustees of Fidelity Summer Street Trust has unanimously approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (“Agreement”) between Fidelity® Global High Income Fund and Fidelity® High Income Fund.
    Each fund seeks a high level of current income. Growth of capital may also be considered.
    As a result of the proposed Reorganization, shareholders of each class of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund would receive shares of the corresponding class of Fidelity® High Income Fund.
    The Agreement provides for the transfer of all of the assets of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund in exchange for corresponding shares of Fidelity® High Income Fund equal in value to the net assets of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund and the assumption by Fidelity® High Income Fund of all of the liabilities of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund. After the exchange, Fidelity® Global High Income Fund will distribute the Fidelity® High Income Fund shares to its shareholders pro rata, in liquidation of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund. As a result, shareholders of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund will become shareholders of Fidelity® High Income Fund (these transactions are collectively referred to as the “Reorganization”).
    Shareholders of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund will receive a combined information statement and prospectus containing more information with respect to the Reorganization, and a summary of the Board’s considerations in approving the Agreement.
    The Reorganization, which does not require shareholder approval, is expected to take place on or about September 13, 2024. The Reorganization is expected to be a tax-free transaction. This means that neither Fidelity® Global High Income Fund nor its shareholders will recognize any gain or loss as a direct result of the Reorganization.
    Effective the close of business on March 22, 2024, new positions in Fidelity® Global High Income Fund (the fund) may no longer be opened. Shareholders of the fund on that date may continue to add to their fund positions existing on that date. Investors who did not own shares of the fund on March 22, 2024, generally will not be allowed to buy shares of the fund except that new fund positions may be opened: 1) by participants in most group employer
    retirement plans (and their successor plans) if a qualifying fund is already established as an investment option under the plans (or under another plan sponsored by the same employer), 2) by participants in a 401(a) plan covered by a master record keeping services agreement between Fidelity and a national federation of employers that included a qualifying fund as a core investment option, 3) for accounts managed on a discretionary basis by certain registered investment advisers that have discretionary assets of at least $500 million invested in mutual funds and already included the fund in their discretionary account program, 4) by a mutual fund or a qualified tuition program for which Fidelity serves as investment manager, 5) by a portfolio manager of the fund, 6) by a fee deferral plan offered to trustees of certain Fidelity® funds, if the fund is an investment option under the plan, and 7) by qualified intermediaries to facilitate in-kind redemption activity when deemed by the Adviser to be in the best interests of the fund, and 8) by certain asset pools associated with an organization that already offers a qualifying fund as an investment option in its retirement plan(s). These restrictions generally will apply to investments made directly with Fidelity and investments made through intermediaries. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to buy shares of the fund before an investment is accepted.
    Effective after the close of business on May 20, 2024, new positions in the fund may no longer be opened. Existing shareholders may continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund’s liquidation.
    In connection with the Reorganization, an information statement/prospectus that will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn and the information statement/prospectus will not be distributed to shareholders of Fidelity® Global High Income Fund unless and until the registration statement becomes effective. Shareholders should read the information statement/prospectus, which contains important information about the Reorganization, when it becomes available. For a free copy of the information statement/prospectus, please contact Fidelity at 1-800-544-8544. The information statement/prospectus will also be available on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website (www.sec.gov).
    For more detailed information, please contact Fidelity at 1-800-544-8544...
  • Fidelity® Latin America Fund will be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/744822/000119312524066633/d797845d497.htm
    497 1 d797845d497.htm FIDELITY INVESTMENT TRUST
    Supplement to the
    Fidelity’s Targeted International Equity Funds®
    December 30, 2023
    Prospectus
    Proposed Reorganization. The Board of Trustees of Fidelity Investment Trust has unanimously approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (“Agreement”) between Fidelity® Latin America Fund and Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund pursuant to which Fidelity® Latin America Fund would be reorganized on a tax-free basis with and into Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund.
    As a result of the proposed Reorganization, shareholders of each class of Fidelity® Latin America Fund would receive shares of the corresponding class of Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund.
    The Agreement provides for the transfer of all of the assets of Fidelity® Latin America Fund in exchange for corresponding shares of Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund equal in value to the net assets of Fidelity® Latin America Fund and the assumption by Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund of all of the liabilities of Fidelity® Latin America Fund. After the exchange, Fidelity® Latin America Fund will distribute the Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund shares to its shareholders pro rata, in liquidation of Fidelity® Latin America Fund. As a result, shareholders of Fidelity® Latin America Fund will become shareholders of Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund (these transactions are collectively referred to as the “Reorganization”).
    A Special Meeting (the “Meeting”) of the Shareholders of Fidelity® Latin America Fund is expected to be held during the third quarter of 2024 and approval of the Agreement will be voted on at that time. A combined proxy statement and prospectus containing more information with respect to the Reorganization will be provided to shareholders of record of Fidelity® Latin America Fund in advance of the meeting.
    If the Agreement is approved at the Meeting and certain conditions required by the Agreement are satisfied, the Reorganization is expected to take place on or about September 13, 2024. If shareholder approval of the Agreement is delayed due to failure to meet a quorum or otherwise (an “Adjournment”), the Reorganization will become effective, if approved, as soon as practicable thereafter.
    In connection with seeking shareholder approval of the Agreement, effective the close of business on March 22, 2024, new positions in Fidelity® Latin America Fund (the fund) may no longer be opened. Shareholders of the fund on that date may continue to add to their fund positions existing on that date. Investors who did not own shares of the fund on March 22, 2024, generally will not be allowed to buy shares of the fund except that new fund positions may be opened: 1) by participants in most group employer retirement plans (and their successor plans) if a qualifying fund is already established as an investment option under the plans (or under another plan sponsored by the same employer), 2) by participants in a 401(a) plan covered by a master record keeping services agreement between Fidelity and a national federation of employers that included a qualifying fund as a core investment option, 3) for accounts managed on a discretionary basis by certain registered investment advisers that have discretionary assets of at least $500 million invested in mutual funds and already included the fund in their discretionary account program, 4) by a mutual fund or a qualified tuition program for which Fidelity serves as investment manager, 5) by a portfolio manager of the fund, 6) by a fee deferral plan offered to trustees of certain Fidelity® funds, if the fund is an investment option under the plan, and 7) by qualified intermediaries to facilitate in-kind redemption activity when deemed by the Adviser to be in the best interests of the fund, and 8) by certain asset pools associated with an organization that already offers a qualifying fund as an investment option in its retirement plan(s). These restrictions generally will apply to investments made directly with Fidelity and investments made through intermediaries. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to buy shares of the fund before an investment is accepted.
    If shareholder approval of the Agreement cannot be achieved, the Board of Trustees has approved a plan of liquidation for Fidelity® Latin America Fund. Prior to such liquidation the fund’s assets will be managed to provide for sufficient liquidity to meet redemptions prior to liquidation. In this event, effective after the close of business on
    July 16, 2024 (or such later date as may be required in connection with an Adjournment), the fund will no longer permit new positions in the fund to be opened. Existing shareholders will be permitted to continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund’s liquidation on or about September 13, 2024 or as soon as practicable thereafter in the event of an Adjournment...
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    BTW, you can also create a ladder of US Treasuries extending out 10-20 years that now yields well over 4%. Treasuries are call-protected, and you can easily sell them if you need cash sooner than maturity dates. Treasury income is exempt from state and local taxes, further boosting yields if held in taxable accounts. They also are available as floating rate notes and TIPS.
    None of the many bond funds (including intermediate and multisector) that I track have returns exceeding 4% over the past 5 and 10 years, and very few over 15 years.
    Furthermore, 4% is often cited as a sustainable annual withdrawal rate for a retirement portfolio. So, you can now achieve that rate with Treasuries for at least the bond portion of a portfolio, presumably using stocks to account for inflation.
  • Castle Focus Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103243/000141304224000172/castlefocussupp.htm
    497 1 castlefocussupp.htm
    Castle Focus Fund
    A series of PFS Funds
    Supplement dated March 11, 2024
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    each dated November 1, 2023
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the PFS Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) relating to the Castle Focus Fund (the “Fund”), effective March 7, 2024. Castle Investment Management, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”), has recommended to the Board to approve the Plan based on its representations of its inability to market the Fund and the Adviser’s indication that it does not desire to continue to support the Fund. As a result, the Board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the shareholders to liquidate the Fund.
    In connection with the proposed liquidation and dissolution of the Fund called for by the Plan, the Board has directed the Trust’s principal underwriter to cease offering shares of the Fund immediately as of the date of this Supplement. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until the liquidation. While undergoing an orderly liquidation, the Fund will invest in cash equivalents and will not be pursuing its investment objective.
    It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about March 22, 2024. Any remaining shareholders on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their remaining investment value in full liquidation of the Fund. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund toll-free at 1-877-743-7820 or the Adviser at 703-260-1921.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of any redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement, and the existing Prospectus dated November 1, 2023, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated November 1, 2023 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-877-743-7820.
  • Balanced ETF funds that compare to CGBL
    I like and own WBALX for the more conservative part of the portfolio. 50/50 and quite conservative. Small 230K AUM. When the s--t hits the fan this should lose less. In retirement I hold the mantra, "Do not lose it " in high esteem.

    As a retired and conservative investor, I naturally agree with your mantra.
    However, I use the following non-ETF funds with excellent risk/reward profiles and all with SD<10:
    QDSNX, JHQAX, BLNDX, CBLDX and ICMUX.
    The only ETF fund I use is TFLO.
    By the way, JHQAX has an extremely low tax cost ratio of 0.23 according to M*.
    So far, so good.
    Fred
  • Balanced ETF funds that compare to CGBL
    I like and own WBALX for the more conservative part of the portfolio. 50/50 and quite conservative. Small 230K AUM. When the s--t hits the fan this should lose less. In retirement I hold the mantra, "Do not lose it " in high esteem.