Our Funds Boat; week +.67%, YTD +2.77% OOOF.....10-23-11 Hi bee,
Per your below questions:
"I have a question for you that plays off of your fund boat. I am going to try and create a 5-10 year draw down portfolio for one of my mom's investment bucket. She is 88 and needs about $600/mo to compliment her SS benefits. I would like to diversify her "boat" with 80% high quality income generating funds and 20% with growth funds that might hedge inflation as well as be exposed to the risk of the markets. She will be spending down some of her portfolio shares since her last bucket is more like a pail... it is quite small ($35K). With inflation, she will draw $600/mo in year 1 but this will evolve into almost $700/mo in year 6.
My thought is to divide her portfolio into a portfolio of 4-8 funds. If you were to pared down your holdings (boat), what would be your top 8 funds? What would your top 4 funds be? Would one group(4 vs. 8) hold any advantage over the other?
I would guess FAGIX would be one of your top four holdings but I would like to hear your take on creating an ultra simplified "last bucket" draw down retirement portfolio remembering that it will be the "last bucket" before kicking the proverbial...bucket. We all will be there one day."
>>>>>Ah, the $64,000 question (from the wayback tv show); which is now inflation adjusted to $480,824.37.
I will say that this house is looking to a possible similar set of conditions regarding a trim of holdings in the next year or so.
A few thoughts regarding the list below:
At this stage of our investing world; it may be best stated that... "we are looking at bond funds that behave like equity funds; and equity funds that behave like bond funds." The ultimate goal, eh; yield and growth.
Looking forward as of today, for the next 5-10 years; from this untrained economic mind, finds a likely tough road ahead for the developed nations (debt loads/ability to continue to raise funds for payoff of debt), the possibility that the so-called BRIC/EM's nations could maintain growth among themselves even with reduced export demand from the developed nations (a global have's and have not's on a country scale), stagflation may be part of this scenario. Obviously, this is part of a possible global economic slowing; but with pressures for a given amount of demand for commodities; and some countries could at the same time, have a deflationary environment that would also affect interest rate variables among many countries (this is already in place). How to capture all of these possiblities going forward may require a "boat" with about 12 sails that may be set to the proper direction of a current, prevailing wind. 'Course, I am not saying anything that most here at MFO have not already thought about. Other than all of this; investing is pretty easy, eh ???
The below funds are not in a particular order; just how I happened to note them initially on a piece of paper.
VWINX Vanguard Wellsley long track record, a dividend payer on the eq. side; as well as the bond holdings yields, has held up well this year. Yield is 3.8% with equities at US=32%, INTL=5%; bonds at US=44%, INTL=13%. Balanced/growth & income/conservative allot...or whatever one chooses to name this fund, and with a low ER of .28..
RNDLX RiverNorth/Doubleline short track record, but appears to know what they are doing for 2011. ER a bit steep at 1.5% for this fund of funds; but the prospectus indicates the fund may place monies into whatever bond area from 0-100% of holdings, for maximum flex. No current yield indicated.
LSBRX Loomis Sayles Global bond long track record, has some problems with making money in shakey market scenarios; but is perhaps suited to a possible sideways/slow growth markets going forward. ER=.94 with a current yield of 5.5%. US holdings = 47%, INTL = 25%, remainder cash/other.
FAGIX Fido Cap & Income long track record, but can take a big hit in sour equity market periods, not unlike many funds involved in the high yield bond area. But, in spite of what this fund is; its long term returns match very well with many equity/balanced funds including a fund like PRPFX. The fund also holds 10-20% in equities, based upon historical indicators; as well as 80+% being US holdings of bonds/equity. ER = .8% with a current yield of 6.9%. For more than 30 years, this particular fund has been a portion of our holdings; excluding its sale in June of 2008 and repurchase in 2009.
FNMIX, EM bonds; although Fidelity has their share of so-so funds; this one fund in this area has held it place among many similar funds. I don't like that the fund is denominated in $US; but in spite of this has provided decent returns in this sector. ER = .9% with a current yield of 5.6%.
FRIFX, Fido Real Estate; a conservative US REIT type fund with about 58% in bonds and 35% equity holdings. ER = .8% with a current yield of 5.3%.
FLPSX, Fido Low Priced stock fund; a fairly good mix of equity holdings and a fund with a decent record for 2011 in this crazy market place. US = 51%, INTL - 35%, and the fund holdings do rotate among mega through small cap with current holdings indicated: Mega=6%,very Lg=7%,Lg=5%,mid=43% and Small cap=39%. ER=.8% with a yield of .7%. Obviously, this fund is subject to equity market moves, too.
FFGCX, Fido global commodity; this fund gives one a wide mix of equity holdings that are subject to poor equity markets; but also allows for exposure to offset inflation and a rising equity market. It is the only fund of which I am aware that offers a 1/3 mix of each sector in energy, agri and metals equities all in one package with holdings of US=34%, INTL=66% with an ER of 1.1% and yield of 1.2%.
MAPIX, Matthews Asia Dividend This fund obviously gives one exposure to a broad Asia market place, of which; I feel is important going forward, The ER = 1.1% with a yield of about 4%.
SIRRX, Sierra Retirement; a fairly new fund; but it appears management understands the overall market moods for 2011 and have adjusted where they have needed to place the money. I have not dug deep into the prospectus; but it appears the fund does have a fair amount of flex; obviously a very important ability going forward. I also have not noted DBLNX, which Mr. Gundlach appears to have an ultimate skill in the mortgage bond area; but is a very narrow choice of fund style; but could be part of a mix, too.
I have not listed PRPFX, but is also a consideration for its balanced and mixed holdings. I also have not mentioned any Pimco bond funds; although there are more than enough to satisfy any bond needs. I am not sure what happens in their meetings or who has the powers of decision making; but many of their bond funds have not performed as expected for the total type funds; and also the "unconstrained bond" funds. By chance of investment style of a particular Pimco bond fund, those in the Treasury/TIPs areas have performed well; as they are in the right place at the right time for 2011 to date. If our holding of PTTRX was not the only bond fund available in one acct.; the holding would have already been reduced and moved elsewhere.
bee, I have not passed these funds through the M* cruncher machine; which would provide a better picture of overlap and related; and would provide a better starting point for choices, as I am not sure of what the bond/equity mix as a percentage may have with these funds.
I would personally prefer 8 funds, versus 4 for a wider exposure and better support of perform when equities or bonds are moving in opposite directions. So, I have to discard 2 of the 10 above. Ultimately, for this house; we have no problem holding 20 plus funds for a broad mix; attempting to maintain a likely slow, but forward moving boat.
Top 8: VWINX RNDLX FAGIX FNMIX FLPSX FFGCX MAPIX SIRRX
Top 4: VWINX RNDLX MAPIX SIRRX (someone would have to threaten my life or a family member's life to form this too short list !!!) an impossible mix for this house, that would not cover the sectors.
I have noted before that I run out of time for the type of research that I/we demand at this house for our investments; but we try. With several thousand fund choices at Fido, there are bound to be better choices than what we have in the funds boat, but; to little time.
I sure as heck have forgotten to mention something..........so, rattle my brain cells.
Back to work for me, now.
Take care,
Catch
t. rowe price report . . . plus few more reads http://individual.troweprice.com/staticFiles/Retail/Shared/PDFs/PriceReports/Fall2011PriceReport.pdf#page=1&placementGUID=em_prcreport&creativeGUID=EMBDHT&v_sd=201110kipinger best 25 mf
http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=2151863stinker of the yr
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20111023/REG/310239985M* ranks best/worst MF for 401K
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/morningstar-ranks-best-worst-mutual-funds-401k/story?id=14789497loomin ETF shakeout
http://www.fa-mag.com/fa-news/8945-the-looming-etf-shake-out.htmlputman offering new
retirement income funds & tools
http://www.financial-planning.com/news/Putnam-retirement-tools-mutual-funds-2675713-1.htmlare you bogleing
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2011/10/24/are-you-bogleing/also - ot
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2011/10/25/why-hatteras-financial-corp-is-a-top-10-reit-stock-with-15-34-yield/vanguard dividend etf
http://www.etftrends.com/2011/10/a-closer-look-at-vanguards-high-dividend-etf/?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ETF Trends&utm_content=junks bonds are hot but there are still plenty of fire
http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/21/markets/bondcenter/high_yield_bonds/which investors are in long term
http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2011/10/24/groupon-which-investors-are-in-for-the-long-term/Market Week: October 24, 2011
The Markets - rbc investments
A tug-of-war between earnings and Europe dominated equities last week. The Dow industrials overcame a discouraging start to the week and managed a third straight week of gains. However, the Nasdaq slipped back into the loss column, while the S&P 500's encouraging week still left it in negative territory for the year and the small-cap Russell 2000 continued to struggle.
Market/Index 2010 Close Prior Week As of 10/21 Week Change YTD Change
DJIA 11577.51 11644.49 11808.79 1.41% 2.00%
NASDAQ 2652.87 2667.85 2637.46 -1.14% -.58%
S&P 500 1257.64 1224.58 1238.25 1.12% -1.54%
Russell 2000 783.65 712.46 712.42 -.01% -9.09%
Global Dow 2087.44 1845.80 1846.63 .04% -11.54%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.30% 2.26% 2.23% -3 bps -107 bps
Last Week's Headlines
Despite strong words from G-20 finance ministers about the need for a formal plan for containing the damage from European debt problems, the eurozone continued to debate ways to enhance the European Financial Stability Facility's resources. However, any formal agreement failed to appear last week, though French and German leaders said they anticipated having one this week. In the meantime, Moody's warned that France's AAA debt could be hit with a negative outlook if its budget is strained by bailout demands; it also downgraded Spain's debt from Aa2 to A1.
September's 0.3% consumer inflation rate was the third increase in as many months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that put the inflation rate for the last 12 months at 2%. At the wholesale level, inflation was worse; driven mostly by a 2.3% jump in energy costs and a 10% increase in the prices of vegetables, it spiked up 0.8% in September, for a 6.9% rate for the last year.
Federal Reserve manufacturing numbers were mixed. The New York region was negative for a fifth straight month, while new orders were flat. However, the Philadelphia Fed survey showed improvement, jumping from -17.5 in September to 8.7, the first positive number in three months. Nationwide, industrial production rose 0.2% in September and was 3.2% higher than a year ago.
China's efforts to try to control inflation there contributed to a slower pace of economic growth--9.1%--during the third quarter. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, that's down from Q2's 9.5%.
Housing starts shot up 15% in September, putting them 10.2% above last year. According to the Commerce Department, that's the highest level since before the homeowner's tax credit expired last year. Building permits, an indicator of future construction activity, fell 5% from August, though they also were up from a year ago.
Sales of existing homes dropped 3% in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®, though compared to the previous September, they were up 11.3%.
Eye on the Week Ahead
Action or lack thereof at the midweek European debt summit is likely to affect the mood of the markets. A first look at Q3 economic growth also will be of interest.
Key dates and data releases: home prices, consumer confidence (10/25); new home sales, durable goods orders (10/26); initial estimate of Q3 gross domestic product, pending home sales, weekly new jobless claims (10/27); personal income/spending, labor costs, consumer sentiment (10/28).