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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TIAA outage
    About half my wife's retirement portfolio is at at TIAA from two different institutions. About 33% is in their "traditional" accounts, or whatever they call them. I moved most of the rest to money markets back in June. But I know that isn't a sensible long-term plan.
    We had a chat with a peppy rep back in the spring. Tried to learn from their web site. But, man o man, the whole experience sure makes me feel stupid.
    Still a ways off from RMD's.
  • Franklin Mutual Financial Services Fund proposal to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/825063/000174177323004048/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm MS P5 1222
    MS P5 12/23
    FRANKLIN MUTUAL SERIES FUNDS
    SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 15, 2023
    TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2023, OF
    FRANKLIN MUTUAL FINANCIAL SERVICES FUND (A SERIES OF FRANKLIN MUTUAL SERIES FUNDS)
    The Board of Trustees of Franklin Mutual Series Funds recently approved a proposal to reorganize the Franklin Mutual Financial Services Fund (the “Fund”) with and into the Franklin Mutual Global Discovery Fund, each a series of Franklin Mutual Series Funds.
    It is anticipated that in the first quarter of 2024, shareholders of the Fund will receive a proxy card and a Combined Prospectus/Proxy Statement requesting their votes on the reorganization. If approved by the Fund’s shareholders, the transaction is currently expected to be completed on or about April 26, 2024, but may be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
    Effective at the close of market (1:00 p.m. Pacific time or close of the New York Stock Exchange, whichever is earlier) on or about January 29, 2024, the Fund will be closed to all new investors except as noted below. Existing investors who had an open and funded account on January 29, 2024 can continue to invest in the Fund through exchanges and additional purchases after such date. The following categories of investors may continue to open new accounts in the Fund after the close of market on January 29, 2024: (1) clients of discretionary investment allocation programs where such programs had investments in the Fund prior to the close of market on January 29, 2024; and (2) Employer Sponsored Retirement Plans or benefit plans and their participants where the Fund was available to participants prior to the close of market on January 29, 2024. The Fund will not accept any additional purchases or exchanges after the close of market on or about April 24, 2024. The Fund reserves the right to change this policy at any time.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @hank- well, Baseball_Fan does make a good point regarding the desirability of having a reasonable amount of secure fixed income for a number of years immediately after retirement. That happened to us- immediately after our retirement the great events of 2009 did a real number on our investments generally. However our SS and pension income allowed us to ride that out without disaster.
    We were really lucky, but I do have to say that my spreadsheet planning for some twenty years prior to retirement had included such a scenario. You might remember many exchanges between me and MJG regarding my approach and his vaunted Monte Carlo alternatives.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    Already explained the WTF portfolio. If you need less than 3%(2.5% is...I need under 2%) annual withdrawal, then you can do whatever.
    Someone who doesn't have enough must take a lot more risk than the above.
    I always found better ST trade in bond OEFs and the rest is in MM. MM gives me more flexibility and is easier to trade than CD/TR.
    As usual, the red zone DEPENDS. There is a difference between retirement at age 55, 65, or 70.
    Never in my life, have I owned a CD or US treasury, as you see at https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding.
    From retirement in 2018 to 2022(5 years), I was at 10/90 (stocks/bond OEFs) and did well. In 2023, I'm at 100% bond OEFs doing pretty well. I keep changing my style according to the market. When MM pays over 5%, even 4%, all I need is 3 trades at 2+% to have a great return with very low SD/risk. Owning 2-3 funds makes my life easier.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @Baseball_Fan, there are several recent studies, including by Pfau, that include basic immediate annuities (SPIAs) in the withdrawal mix. So, that is one way to address the SOR risk.
    "Rising equity glide path" indeed follows a lower equity exposure around retirement (few years before and after).
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    Prudential offers this PDF on The Red Zone: https://www.prudential.com/media/system/cda/rrz/downloads/redzone_brochure.pdf
    Many refer to The (Investor) Red Zone as the 5 years prior to retirement. Others, like me, refer to it as the 5 years prior to and after retirement.
    We had never owned a dedicated bond fund and were always 95%-99% in stocks until entering The Zone pre-retirement. We bought our first allocation and dedicated bond funds when we entered The Zone pre-retirement. If we had it to do all over again, we would have not bought any dedicated bond funds - for us, a waste of time, money and effort. The only bonds we hold now are via three allocation funds with bonds being less than 5% of total portfolio. We do own a 5-yr CP CD ladder in lieu of any individual bonds or dedicated bond funds.
    I think there is likely a tendency of many to become TOO conservative in The Zone, but the prevailing theme of it is better to be safe than sorry, though one's choice may be for one and end up resulting in the other.
    Pulp Fiction is oft referred to as a cult classic of director Quentin Tarantino.
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0110912/
    Musta seen it at least 15 times by now. Stellar cast offers up stellar performances. One iconic scene after another. Not recommended for the faint of heart.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    a comment and a question....
    Not sure if it was Pfau who stated this...but there's a concept that the riskiest time for investors are 5 to 7 years prior to retirement and 5 to 7 years after retirement...the ole' sequence of return risk...so thinking is to be extremely "safe" positioned in your portfolio during those times...as you can really get dinged with your funds at the worst possible time with no time for portfolio to recover
    Also, curious if any of the class annuitized any of their portfolio going into retirement? and please also indicate if you are comfortable doing so if you have a gov't or other pension (reason being is that I consider a govt pension a better than equivalent of an annuity) I also do believe that Pfau has mentioned annuitizing part of one's portfolio going into retirement.
    btw..never saw the movie Pulp F...only have seen snippets and always had no idea what if was about or what was going on, LOL!
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    hank
    Portfolio risk late in retirement? It’s a personal matter, I think, based more on temperament than anything else. If you still don’t have “enough” to survive on for the rest of your life when you reach 75 - 85 may God help you
    Unfortunately, most/many retirees are in that situation.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    What is a "What The F--k" portfolio? All caution to the wind?
    I’ve researched it Mike. It’s military lingo: ”Whiskey Tango Foxtrot”
    Portfolio risk late in retirement? It’s a personal matter, I think, based more on temperament than anything else. If you still don’t have “enough” to survive on for the rest of your life when you reach 75 - 85 may God help you. It’s unlikely any particular allocation model is going to make much difference at that point. WTF.
    Notwithstanding the above, the referenced study (in the OP) doesn’t deal specifically with appropriate equity / risk exposure per age. It simply asserts that an all stock portfolio (50% domestic / 50% foreign) will outperform a “balanced” (60/40) portfolio over just about any relevant time span.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    After I read many of these papers, I liked the idea of FLEXIBILITY which is what I have been practicing during the accumulation phase.
    It also depends on how big is your portfolio.
    - If you don't have enough, you don't have a choice but to own a high % of stocks for longevity.
    - If you have WTF portfolio=enough, you can be at 20/80 to 80/20
    - The biggest problem is in the middle. How to split between stock to bonds? 35-65% in stocks/bonds makes sense. Another good idea is "a rising equity glide path". You start with 35-40% in stocks and increase by 1% until you get to your sleep-well %.
    In my case: since 2018=retirement, I have used at least 90% bonds + flexibility=trading.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @sma, Wade Pfau has done several recent studies on retirement withdrawals. Basically, he has looked at various ways to modify/improve Bengen's 4% w/COLA Rule. He was a Professor at the American College of Financial Services, so he is not pushing any one idea, but has analyzed various possible variations.
    https://risaprofile.com/about-us/
    https://retirementresearcher.com/about/wade-pfau-bio/
    https://www.amazon.com/Retirement-Planning-Guidebook-Navigating-Important/dp/194564009X
    One of the ideas he has mentioned is "rising equity glide-path" (not sure who first came up with the idea). So, one starts with lower equity exposure around retirement to account for high SOR risks, and then increases equity exposure gradually as retirement progresses. These increases are not dramatic.
    "What’s the solution?
    There are four ways to manage the sequence-of-return risk. One, spend conservatively. Two, spend flexibly. If you can reduce your spending after a market downturn, that can manage sequence-of-return risk because you don’t have to sell as many shares to meet the spending need. A third option is to be strategic about volatility in your portfolio, even using the idea of a rising equity glide path. The fourth option is using buffer assets like cash, a reverse mortgage or whole life policy with cash value.
    What is a rising equity glide path?
    Start with a lower stock allocation at the beginning of retirement, and then work your way up. Later in retirement, market volatility doesn’t have as much impact on the sustainability of your spending path, and you can adjust by having a higher stock allocation later on. "
    Subscription Link https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-4-percent-rule-downturn-strategy-51642806039
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    ”I stumbled across the idea that you start retirement with a low equity allocation and increase it as you age ten or so years ago, although I forgot the source.”
    @sma3 - I looked for that same idea online and couldn’t find it either. I’ll hasten to add, however, that from my vantage point it’s not quite as clear-cut or simple as it might sound, So much depends on the price at which one buys in - as much as I profess to loath market timing.
    You are correct that those of us with pensions + SS may be able to assume more investment risk. While my 48% equity allocation (per Fido’s Analysis tool) is probably the highest ever during the retirement years (with the exception of late ‘08 / early ‘09), it is being accomplished with the assistance of a 30% allocation to L/S & hedged equity types of funds having relatively high ERs. That’s less than ideal, but does afford a respectful allocation to equities per age. Am always looking for ways to cut down expenses w/o ramping up the risk profile. A 10% allocation to individual stocks is part of the solution, but by no means the entire answer.
    Thanks @bee for your earlier submissions to the thread,
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @hank
    I stumbled across the idea that you start retirement with a low equity allocation and increase it as you age ten or so years ago, although I forgot the source. It avoids loosing 45% of your assets in a massive bear market just as you retire.
    Of course this requires you to have enough income from SS a pension etc to survive early years without being forced to withdraw capital to live on.
    I felt like a genius when I retired equity light in 2019, as the Covid Bear market hit. The problem now is to decide how soon and how much to increase my equity exposure. I have a much better feeling for our expenses and SS income now than I did in 2019, but domestic equities seem rather overpriced now.
    A lot of people unfortunately have to take out a substantial % of their retirement account to survive.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @yogibb said,
    Well, tables were turned soon on Ramsey as many on Twitter showed that with Ramsey's advice, anyone who started in 01/2000 would have already run out of money by now, forget about 30-40 years. So, fool was Ramsey. He didn't offer a rebuttal.
    Decumulation is very different and less forgiving than accumulation.
    I concur. Time is NOT on your side in retirement for recovery. Math is against you t that point.
    December article from our MFO contributor, @Lynn Bolin shares his retirement asset allocation, and his reasoning (and metrics).
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2023/12/searching-for-inflection-points/
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    +1 Thank you @Roy / Excellent link.
    On occasion I listened to Ramsey 20+ years ago when he was on late night AM. Sounded much more rational than. From that included clip, it sounds like he’s been attending the ”Rush Limbaugh School of Public Address”. Make what you will of his math.
    FWIW - About 15 years ago (possibly more) there was a thread (maybe on F/A?) discussing a published theory that retirees should start out conservatively positioned and become more aggressive as they age. Sounded ridiculous to me at the time. But 25+ years into retirement I can at least understand the logic. Early on you’re most concerned about outliving your assets. If you’re fortunate enough, later on that becomes a less important concern and you might be inclined to put a little more risk “on the table” in pursuit of greater reward.
    As always: No 1 size fits all.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @yogibearbull
    That's what concerns me for a good friend who is 50 years old (married) and has a retirement portfolio of a million already. He hopes to retire at 52 and is planning to be 100% invested in the SP500 until death. He scoffs at the 4% rule as being far too conservative, though I don't know what his starting withdrawal rate plan is. He has floated the idea of meeting with a financial planner to vet his plan.
    Here is a link for an article from M* columnist John Reckenthaler on the viability of an all-stock portfolio and high real withdrawal rate in retirement.
    https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/can-you-safely-spend-more-early-retirement
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    We humans struggle with the “buy & hold” investing adage.
    JP Morgan confirms your researcher’s finding:
    Finally, we continue to believe stocks are the drivers of long-term capital appreciation. Bonds certainly have a greater role to play in portfolios today, but we are also reminded that stocks have outperformed bonds 85% of the time on a rolling 10-year basis since 1950.
    I do believe holding a small percentage of less volatility (cash, bonds) during the withdrawal phase helps a retiree “withdrawal cash/bonds and hold a higher percentage of equities” in retirement.
    Sited article:
    https://jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/market-outlook/five-considerations-for-investors-in-2024
  • High yield long term CDs
    @Jan:
    Disclaimer: You likely gave your advisor the detail of your current investments and your projected income gap upon retirement, along with risk profile information. That is all needed for anyone here or elsewhere to provide quality advice.
    Without all that, here's what I'd offer you as suggestions/ideas:
    Know that predicting the future of interest rates, their rates and the magnitude of their moves, is a fool's game.
    Only BUY brokerage CDs IF you reasonably KNOW you will NOT need the proceeds before their respective maturity dates. Selling them as Secondary Issues will cost you dearly at this point in time (and likely for months/years to come), IF you can be lucky enough to find a BUYer.
    Only BUY CP CDs to eliminate the guessing game on your holdings and risk of them being Called before their normal Maturity Date.
    Know that 3-month-to-1-yr rates are holding up the best, and LT rates (out to 5-10 years) are taking weekly, if not daily hits. Consider that trend is likely-to-very likely to continue, which should cause you to consider building the far end of the ladder as soon as possible.
    The "do now" stuff appears fine but I would make any current the BUYs on the farthest ends of your ladder.
    I'd not bother with trying to define any specific BUYs in Feb and Mar '24, or even Jan '24. (See my first comment about predicting the future interest rates.) We can guess what's gonna be available then, but we have no certainty those guesses will be anywhere near accurate. You can have a general plan for future dates, but leave the specifics TBD by your research in the week-to-two weeks leading up to getting those proceeds.
    I have no idea why he recommended the last item related to CDs in your taxable a/c best serving you IF at 2-yr intervals. I have no CDs in taxable a/c's. If I did, I would want them to be the ones at the shorter end of my ladder for the very reason he gave, to "give you added financial flexibility in retirement." 2-year CDs does NOT give you the flexibility (not the interest rates!) that 6-month, 1-yr and 18-month CDs would.
  • High yield long term CDs
    Admitting that I have a lack of knowledge, I decided to hire an advisor who was recommended to me by a couple of friends who have used him for many years. I pay him by the hour and he is charging me 3 hours which I feel is reasonable.
    I am 71 and will retire in 6 months to one years time so this isn't a retirement advice. I am very conservative with money. My objective is to generate as much as income as possible form the interest .I have a decent amount of social security in addition to this as I have worked for 50 plus years and didn't claim SS until I was 70.
    My question: I think it would be good to lock in 5 or even 10 year CD's rates as they are north of 4% and that would yield a decent amount of returns. I am concerned if I use CD ladders, the rates which are going to fall sooner than later might end up losing me money in the end.
    I will meet with him soon and he will answer any questions/concerns I have. I would greatly appreciate your opinion and or advice as this would enable me to ask him questions.
    His comments:
    Goal:
    To move cash to longer maturity CDs/Treasuries to take advantage of relatively high interest rates over a longer period of time.
    Things that can be done now:
    In your Company 401k Brokerage link:
    Buy a $100k 2-year CD. (Non-callable)
    Buy a $90k 3-year CD. (non-callable)
    Buy a ~$87k 4-year CD. (non-callable)
    In Feb ’24 when the Bank CD in the IRA matures:
    Invest 100k in a 1-year CD.
    Invest $100k in an 5 year CD.
    Leave ~$17k in cash.
    In March ’24 when the CDs in the Bank taxable account mature:
    Buy a $70k 1-year CD.
    Buy a $70k 2-year CD. (no penalty)
    Other things to note:
    If we build this CD ladder, eventually you will get the average 5-year rate. When a 1-year CD matures, you can buy a 5-yearCD. There should be at least one CD maturing every 12 months.
    I have intentionally left cash in the IRA and “non-CD” funds in the 401k. This because at some stage you will have RMDs and we don’t want the CD ladder to interfere with taking them.
    I think the taxable CDs should be in 24-month intervals. This will give you added financial flexibility in retirement.