Post-Conference Notes by YBB
Rates were maintained - fed funds 5.25-5.50%, bank reserves rate 5.4%, discount rate 5.5%. Treasury QT continues at the reduced level of -$25 billion/mo, but MBS QT remain at -$35 billion/mo.
Inflation target remains +2% average. The confidence in progress on inflation is higher. All aspects are showing improvements - goods, services, headline & core PCE. There is also balanced progress on the dual mandate - inflation & jobs. The current monetary policy is restrictive & its effects are showing up with expected lag, especially in housing.
Economy is growing moderately. Capex is rising. Recessions isn't in the cards for the near future. The pandemic & its aftermath has upended lot of conventional wisdom & rules.
Labor market remains strong. Wage growth is OK. Surveys seem worse that what the aggregate data are showing.
There were specific discussions about rate cuts. There was no consensus for July (this meeting) cut. But September cut would depend on additional data. There are risks in cutting too early vs waiting too long. There may be multiple cuts as there is room with the fed funds at the current level, but larger 50 bps or higher cuts are unlikely.
The Fed is keeping track of the developments on CBDC but there are no plans for digital-dollar. As the Fed is a payment processor itself, it is watching the instant payment aspects of digital currency.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1580/thread

@Charles, good list of Morningstar/MORN achievements as it has made the successful transition from a small-time mutual fund information provider to a global fintech power house - sort of a mini-"Bloomberg".
In the meantime, M* has done everything possible to turnoff or upset its retail investors - remember, those were the guinea pigs that debugged lot of M* software and helped M* with feature requests (M* software was free then and M* was also quite responsive). Now lot of those are very expensive M* professional products. M* now thinks that it can afford to lose a couple of hundred retail clients to gain one professional client.
But further progress to become a real "Bloomberg" may not be easy. If not careful, like Icarus, it may fly too close to the sun.
To pick some items from the list:
"DBRS Morningstar – Independent rating services and …"
OK, but it hasn't become one of the nationally recognized credit agencies (NRSROs). Problem - its credit rating methodologies are opaque, mostly computer-driven, and it won't disclose companies handled per employee.
https://www.sec.gov/about/divisions-offices/office-credit-ratings/current-nrsros
"Sustainalytics – Sustainable investment strategies and security-level ESG research and ratings …"
Well, that was a hugely mistimed ESG capex that misfired. M* can put all of the ESG stuff on its fund pages, but the tide in the US has turned away from ESG. In Europe, ESG is still selling.
"Advisor Managed Accounts – Managed accounts for registered investment advisors"
Recent dumping M* TAMP will hurt the RIA business.
https://riabiz.com/a/2024/6/24/morningstars-sale-of-tamps-12-billion-book-of-business-to-assetmark-ends-two-year-run-that-fell-short-on-growth-whether-rias-stick-or-flee-will-determine-fate-of-deal
I am not negative on M*, but I count myself among the concerned. An irony is that not long ago, I used to link to live M* Charts, but now link to live charts from PV (also very limited now) or StockCharts or TestFol (a free newcomer).
TestFol MORN Max

@Shostakovich - I just plucked these two items quickly off a google search. However I am of the opinion that former CEO Eddie Lampert basically drove it into the ground. I never did understand why Berkowitz was so enamored with him other than he saw prospects for all the real estate controlled by Sears and later Seritage Growth Properties.
1) What happened to Sears Holdings?
It was the 20th-largest retailing company in the United States in 2015. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on October 15, 2018, and sold its assets to ESL Investments in 2019. The new owner moved Sears assets to its newly formed subsidiary Transformco and after that, Sears Holdings Corporation was closed.
2) What caused the downfall of Sears?
The Downfall of Sears: A Failure to Embrace Digital ...
Sears' inability to execute on delivering these omnichannel experiences is just one of the many ways this former retail hero let down its once-booming customer base. Sears ultimately failed because of its reluctance to fully believe in the consequences of a rapidly changing retail landscape.

Fidelity’s card has arrived. Plenty of available credit. Haven’t gotten around to activating it yet. The paperwork that came along says no interest on purchases until around the end of December 2025. Have contracted to have a major landscape / outdoor infrastructure project done this summer. Around $20K - but could go a bit higher. I called the contractor today and they will take the card and do not charge a convenience fee. Sounds too good to be true,
Being very conservative (and taking a simplistic look), 20K invested for 12 months @ 5% = $1,000
Then there’s the 2% cash-back that will go into my CM account. That’s another $400
So it looks on the surface like an easy $1400 gain on a 20K charge. More importantly to me, it would allow time to stagger distributions from my IRAs (the ultimate funding source) over a 12 month period. Not worried about a potential near-term “hit” to credit rating, as I rarely use credit.
- What I don’t know is whether there are minimum monthly payments required starting with month #1. I would certainly expect there are. Any thoughts what that monthly payment might be on a 20K balance?
- Re the 2% “cash back” … Is that by chance considered taxable income?
- Exactly when does that 2% cash-back get deposited anyway? End of monthly billing cycle? Would it still work even along with the free credit offer?
- If you returned an item 60 days after buying it for a merchant refund back to your card, would Fidelity need to go into your CM account and withdraw the 2% cash back credit?
And thank you to all of you for all the ideas and suggestions the thread generated!

It is odd that a company like Boeing could fall apart while others like Toyota can continue to build very reliable products, but I think it is due to a common factor GREED
The same ongoing disasters are very common in health care where the bean counters and private equity have been allowed to take over, putting profits as their only priority
Barron's article on HCA is a good example, but even non profit hospitals have thrown the professionals out of the window and make decisions based on margins only also
Doctors are told what to do, how many patients to see, what medical devices to use or not use based on economics.
Occasionally they object and get fired. But this whistleblower won.
https://www.capecodtimes.com/story/news/2024/05/16/cardiac-procedure-medicare-claims-cape-cod-hospital-richard-zelman-tavr/73721900007/
Patients ( ie customers) suffer
My wife and I are going nuts tying to ensure our daughter's procedure at a major Medical Center is authorized and paid for. It has been almost a month and we are both experienced health care professionals and know what to ask.
And the CEOs of these crappy places make thousands of times more than the workers

@sma3 & @Sven
I have been fortunate in my life time to have made several trips into the BWCA (or BWCAW as it's labeled now). A handful of those trips were made well before cell phones or even SAT phones were in existence. To me the BWCA is called a 'wilderness area' for a reason and you accept that knowing that it's the price you pay for admission. I go there to escape all of societies(?) conveniences and to experience life by one's skills, wits and knowledge. It's glorious.
I can see where it gives many pause however and just within the last month SAT phones were used to summon Search & Rescue assistance for two groups of canoeists HERE. The first ended tragically while the second fared better. My guess is that many more SAT phones will be rented out to canoeing parties in the coming years.
As for cell and/or smart phones, I've always left mine in my vehicle upon entry. Cell service in the BWCA is very spotty at best and most definitely should not be relied upon. Smart phones are good for taking great photo's though and they tend to be small and light weight.

Just noticed - it’s at 4.366% as of 9 AM today. That’s down from over 4.5% last week. Was off sharply yesterday. Don’t pay a lot of attention to bond funds. My two “bond” holdings, PRIHX and LSST both gravitate to the short end of the curve. It hasn’t escaped me that PRWCX has suffered this year due to its bond holdings, as have virtually any other funds with exposure.
Mainly posted FYI

CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida (Reuters) -Boeing's new Starliner astronaut capsule was poised for launch on Monday night on a much-delayed first crewed test flight to orbit, as the company scrambles to compete with Elon Musk's SpaceX for a greater share of lucrative NASA business.
The CST-100 Starliner with two astronauts aboard was due for liftoff at 10:34 p.m. from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carried atop an Atlas V rocket furnished by the Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance (ULA).

Hoping for the best on this one.
Background Info from Wickipedia:

Atlas V is an expendable launch system and the fifth major version in the Atlas launch vehicle family. It was originally designed by Lockheed Martin, now being operated by United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing. It is used for DoD, NASA, and Commercial payloads. It is America's longest-serving active rocket. After 87 launches, in August 2021 ULA announced that Atlas V would be retired, and all 29 remaining launches had been sold. As of January 2024, 17 launches remain. Other future ULA launches will use the new Vulcan Centaur rocket.
Each Atlas V launch vehicle consists of two main stages. The first stage is powered by a Russian engine manufactured by Energomash and burning kerosene and liquid oxygen. The Centaur upper stage is powered by one or two American RL10 engine(s) manufactured by Aerojet Rocketdyne and burns liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen. Strap-on solid rocket boosters are used in most configurations.

”This column should not be read as a criticism of low-risk investments. They aren’t required for younger investors, who need not worry about redeeming their funds at the wrong time (at least, if they are sensible), but they are critical for retirees who are withdrawing their assets. Ballast prevents them from entering a bear market spiral in which they spend ever-larger percentages of their portfolio to realize the same amount of money. Do that for long, and you are in real trouble.”
Do younger investors (ie ages 25-45) really pay much attention to portfolio construction / hedging? Sure, some do. And likely if they’re reading this board they pay greater attention than the average working stiff with a job, kids in school, a big mortgage and 25 + years to retirement.
Good article. Hopefully (as the author suggests) well considered portfolio specific hedging may reduce short term volatility for those already in the withdrawal stage. In no way, shape or form would I ever argue that hedging improves longer term performance. And … there’s always the option (hedge) of moving a big chunk into cash and / or CDs, as one well-heeled poster appears to have done recently. As a sometimes landscaper / gardener, I’m aware that hedges come in many different shapes and colors.

Might be worth building a small short on Trump Media. Markets so crazy I’ve actually got smallish short positions using PSQ & SDS. Under 2% of holdings, but allowing me to stay invested in some less frothy areas (including David’s pick - LCORX).
FD may rightly observe that 2% isn’t enough to “move the needle.” However - it does contribute to better sleep. BTW - I believe the investing landscape is likely to look a lot different after November, regardless of the outcome.

@sma3: I take an occasional winger on a M* undervalued stock, but the proof of the methodology is MOAT, my largest single equity holding. I note the space devoted to the index/fund in the linked M* article. Other flavors of ETF equity LCB funds have come along (BFOR, CAPE, and all manner of « quality » entries), yet MOAT is still out front besting the SPY. 2022 performance demonstrated the resilience of the method in down markets. In its bottom-quintile 2021, it still returned 24%. Members are understandably miffed at M* for various misdeeds; moat investing deserves praise.

It was 12% of my bond holdings. Now I need to figure out how I want to rearrange the chairs on the bond deck

@WABAC, DSEEX is an equity fund following the CAPE process, isn't it? What am I missing here?

Companies such as Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google are Nvidia’s largest customers, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of its revenue , as they rush to invest in hardware for AI computing.
Talk about CONCENTRATED. That's freaky-scary. Unhealthy. These companies which I love to hate "own" more and more (and MORE!) of the Market, every time you just turn around. But it's the only (unethical) game in town. Can't stop my Fund Managers from investing in them. The FMs would say they're just trying to make money for me. Oh, well. Stuck in this web, along with everyone else who has not yet managed to escape to a different planet.

Lunch time back East, and TS continues to rise. Nice. No white knuckles here, just a smile. I'll get me some "joe" and catch up with the news. But what MATTERS is the share price at the END of the day. Looks like a very good week, overall. Pretty sunrise reflecting and shining off the tall buildings in our Honolulu cityscape today. 70, partly sunny at 7:38 a.m. Headed for 81 degrees today. Showers later.

Link to Jan 27 Episode:

… dive into the real risks facing the markets with global value investor Matthew McLennan. As markets climb a wall of worry, McLennan shares his insights on protecting yourself from inevitable declines and sticking to a disciplined investment approach.
We explore the key concerns and opportunities in the financial landscape. Stay tuned for valuable insights from McLennan, Co-Head of the global value team at First Eagle Investments, discusses the multiple risks facing “complacent” markets and his strategies to navigate them.

Barron’s Subtitle: “The Market’s Gains Won’t Come Easy From Here”
This is the first of two sessions. This year’s participants are: John W. Rogers Jr., Todd Ahlsten, Meryl Witmer, Rajiv Jain, Mario Gabelli, Scott Black, David Giroux, Sonal Desai, William Priest, Henry Ellenbogen, Abby Joseph Cohen.
It’s an insightful free-wheeling discussion. Short on specific buy recommendations but an exhaustive look at how investing is likely to be affected by domestic / geopolitics (in the broadest sense) along with the economic backdrop. Most foresee a flat to down year for U.S. equities. David Giroux expects a range of +5% / -5% this year - but looking out 5 years sees annual returns in the 6.5% area. He wasn’t too explicit, but seemed to be referencing his own fund (PRWCX) which he termed a “balanced” fund.
Giroux’s list of “likes” is long (excerpt): ”We see good value in managed care, life-sciences tools, utility stocks, and waste. We still see good value in companies like Microsoft, Intuit, and Salesforce, which has a low valuation … we are seeing good value in energy now as some supply-and-demand dynamics have changed.” And he’s still likes “high quality high yield bonds” (The latter struck me as a bit of an oxymoron.)
Graham Holdings (GHC) was recommended strongly by Witmer. Others joined in and much time was devoted to its numerous components including broadcasting, education and health care. It hurt a bit because I recently unloaded this one after what I thought was a nice run-up. Knowing when to sell a stock is a skill that escapes me. Deere (DE) is another stock that received favorable comment.
Participants noted that the economists / market prognosticators were nearly 100% wrong a year ago when recession was widely seen as “baked in the cake” and the market appeared headed for another bad year. Someone quipped that every year one of them says “It’s a stock picker’s market.” (When isn’t it?) Much was said of the approaching U.S. election and mostly with foreboding. One of the “optimists” (Witmer) predicted the U.S. will somehow “muddle through” without significant damage. Some think the markets will rebound late in the year after the election. The eternal optimism of Buffett and Templeton were noted in this regard. But the general feeling was far from optimistic. Most (if not all) find big cap valuations too rich, while small cap value is greatly undervalued. “De-globalization” is seen by some as a headwind, reducing efficiencies and adding costs for consumers. Franklin’s Sonal Desai says the “real interest rate” (inflation +) is in the 4-5% range - much above what the market currently assumes - implying rates will rise by year’s end.
Really recommend this article!

Jan 13th Episode:

In this interview, Sebastien Page shares his insights on how this new regime differs from previous periods and how it requires us to rethink traditional approaches to asset allocation. Join us as we explore the strategies and considerations for building and protecting your wealth in this changing financial landscape.

"Diversification may not be a free lunch, but maybe more like a 'tasty' lunch."

Interesting guys.
I’ve felt rightly or wrongly that Dow 37,000 (reached 2 years ago) is a decent marker of sentiment and valuation. That’s about where it still is today (I’m guessing that’s about neutral today). So, FWIW, I’m pretty much stuck in neutral - where I’ve been all year long. I recognize the Dow doesn’t represent the greater market or have any special significance. But over the years it’s been a half-decent guide for me (of euphoria vs bust). At least as good as 75% of the market prognosticators.
Did unload BINC a few days ago and move into an IG short term (1-3 years) bond ETF. Not a market call. I expect the former will continue to perform well. Just trying to reduce overall risk profile as a decent year ends and with potential distributions in mind. It seemed as good a place as any to take a little risk off the table. (Equity exposure fell slightly from 48% down to 46% as a consequence of the move.)
I’m structured into 10 equally weighted static segments (all but one represented by a single holding), so selling / replacing any one position is a pretty significant move, Also limits my ability to add or reduce risk incrementally. So far so good. But it’s a relatively new methodology for me.
There are so many cross-currents regarding the financial landscape now it’s hard for me to form an opinion on the future course of the economy or stock valuations. Wars, Sino-tensions, disfunction in DC, consumer attitudes re prices, and the approaching elections. All of this has to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.

Giroux = contrarian as ever. Back to seeing yoots as an interesting moneymaker these days, again. He describes how the fundamental landscape has changed over the course of several years for the yoots.
(" What is a yoot?" ---- Fred Gwynn.)

Another excerpted comment from the thread I previously referenced, this one straight to the point(s) by the venerable "dickoncapecod":
Well, you shouldn't be surprised that the financial relationship is between you and the bank that YOU deposited money at. If it is FDIC insured (or even not) institution, you'll surely receive what you are due eventually. However, the smaller the bank and higher the rate, the more likely the bank has antiquated systems and annoyances like this occur. Sometimes it's worth actually computing the dollars and cents gained by chasing "opportunities" in the risk-free rate world versus a good old (floating rate) money market funds.
====================
I responded to Dick's post:
To dick's very worthy point about "chasing 'opportunities'":
Per Fido (bold added):
Fidelity offers a wide range of issues, rates, and maturities to help you find the certificate of deposit (CD) that fits your needs. If a fixed income security is sold or redeemed before maturity, it may be subject to substantial gains or losses. Your ability to sell a CD on the secondary market is subject to market conditions. Fidelity doesn’t decide the creditworthiness of the issuing institution.
Read: If the bank defaults on the interest or principal, it's the account holder's ultimate responsibility to do the FDIC filing.
==============================
Dick's first comment should answer the question being kicked around here.
If it's me in the OP's position, I would ask Schwab if they have a policy like Fido does related to issuing a brokerage "service request" at the 10-day mark if the interest still has not been received.
I would also obtain the best phone number possible and speak directly to a person at the bank who is directly involved/has direct knowledge of the interest payment in question.
I would NOT blow this out of proportion and would NOT start to doubt CDs.
As Dick noted, you WILL get your principal repaid timely.
As my scenario played out, I learned that this is a possible issue at the BOY and the EOY, every year.
And if there is an issue, it is usually the normal, possibly slow payment cycling related to the BOY or EOY, or there is a specific reason why the interest payment was missed.
In my case, the bank manager I spoke directly to was very helpful, NOT aware of the issue yet and thanked me for calling it to the bank's attention. She also immediately remedied the issue. She even gave me her direct phone number in the event it was not resolved.