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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Someday soon a car could power your home, say PG&E, Ford and General Motors
    I'm not sure how or if THIS LINK will work for non-subscribers to the SF Chronicle, but the news article content is fascinating to me, and I'd like to share it if possible.
    Some excerpts:
    The automobile could become an unlikely crucial new backstop for keeping the lights on in an era of more frequent wildfires, hotter heat waves and aging power infrastructure in California.
    Pacific Gas and Electric Co. and General Motors announced Tuesday that the companies are in the early stages of developing a system for people to electrify their homes using vehicle batteries — it’s the latest corporate collaboration exploring this new use for the largest battery most people own. And it could minimize power disruptions from rolling blackouts or emergency shutoffs during dangerous weather.
    Last year, Ford Motor Co. and San Francisco-based solar installer Sunrun announced the debut of an all-electric pickup capable of electrifying a house. Scheduled to be available later this year, the Ford F-150 Lightning is advertised as being able to provide power to a home for up to three days on a fully charged battery, or longer if power is rationed.
    The idea for using electric vehicles as emergency power sources first came about in Japan during the nuclear disaster of 2011, when an earthquake and tsunami caused a meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. With communities turned to rubble, gasoline became scarce, but electric cars were crucial for moving emergency responders, refugees and supplies.
    Japaneses automakers soon after began manufacturing electric vehicles with two-way charging systems capable of stepping in during emergency power outages,but that technology hasn’t yet reached United States consumers.
    Most electric vehicles already have the capacity to be sources of power, said Rick Spina, General Motors’ vice president of electric vehicle infrastructure. What’s needed is further development of battery software and hardware to bring that power into the home.
    The system the company is developing will include safeguards so people can control the outflow and ensure the battery retains enough of a charge so they can drive a certain amount of miles. That could be essential during an emergency, Spina said.
    Vehicle batteries could become a linchpin for solar power during emergencies, said James Bushnell, an energy economist at UC Davis.
  • Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, attacked and on fire
    A headline stating the obvious: "Nuclear reactors ‘not meant to be exposed to missiles’, analyst says"
    That was a live feed from Al Jazeera a few hours ago which has since vanished.
  • Russian Ruble and Interest Rates: news link
    See some talk about Bitcoin and rubles here
    Some running to Bitcoin to hide assets, escape the collapse in the ruble, some to make it easier to cross borders as a refugee
    Do remember my post from 2 years ago regarding high grade rubies. Don't be surprised if market for high grade gem stones takes off. Inflation is weakening all currencies in real terms, real threat of Cyber warfare crippling financial network
    What happens if Russia escalates, demands removal of NATO weapons back to old borders etc with threats of nuclear war?
    Many more refugees?
    Like I said then you could shove a million bucks of gem stones into your sock and no one would know
    Crazy
    Baseball Fan
  • Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, attacked and on fire
    Looks like a “risk off” day shaping up Friday. Flight to bonds and, to a lesser extent, commodities. Japan’s down sharply overnight. U.S. futures down only moderately just prior to midnight.
    Oh yeah. Agree with the others - war and nuclear plants don’t mix very well.
  • Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, attacked and on fire
    It is frightening news. I read "Midnight in Chernobyl: The Untold Story of the World's Greatest Nuclear Disaster" a couple of years ago. A much worse disaster could be set off by a single missile strike.
  • Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, attacked and on fire
    ADD: 9:30 pm EST
    Nuclear experts: Disaster depends on where the fire is taking place
    As a fire reported by Ukrainian officials continues at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, nuclear experts answered some of the most urgent questions:
    Are there systems in the plant that can automatically fight the fire? Yes, but they don't fight all fires, said nuclear policy expert and Harvard professor Graham Allison. And not all fires at a power plant can have "catastrophic consequences." It depends on where the fire is — the biggest concern is if the blaze reaches a reactor's cooling pits, which could cause a meltdown of the reactor.
    What could happen if a reactor melts down? If a fire, missile strike or other type of attack disrupts the nuclear reactor's cooling structure, it won't be able to cool itself — causing the fuel inside to overheat and melt down, releasing large amounts of radioactivity, said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
    The most recent and severe examples include the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, and the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in Soviet Ukraine.
    How likely is this? It's hard to say because there's still much we don't know, several experts agreed — most importantly, where the fire is located, whether it's even near the reactors or in a different part of the nuclear power complex, whether all the reactors are working — all things that could influence the severity of a disaster, if one occurs.
    Why is the power plant coming under attack? Russian troops appear to be trying to seal off a nearby river and encircle Ukrainian forces, a classic maneuver, said retired US Army Gen. Wesley Clark — and the power plant is "right in the way." The plant is also a "key strategic asset," providing much of Ukraine's power, he added: "Take that offline, the grid is at least temporarily destabilized. You're cutting the ability of Ukrainians to be able to handle communications to a lot of other things."
  • Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, attacked and on fire
    I believe this is the plant that is the largest in Europe.
    Other Investing, indeed. If the fire is not controlled or damage causing operational problems.
    --- Firefighters unable to reach fire at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
    From CNN's Jonny Hallam
    Firefighters are unable to reach the fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to the mayor of the nearby town of Energodar, Dmytro Orlov, in a Facebook post.
    “The Zaporizhzhia Power Plant is notifying of a threat at the first block of the power plant! The fire at the plant is continuing. The firefighters cannot reach the location of the fire,” he posted.
    Earlier, the mayor posted to Facebook saying: "Intense fighting is ongoing on approach routes to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Our National Guard fighters are defending. There are victims, but the exact number and condition so far cannot be determined under the circumstances."
  • Russian Ruble and Interest Rates: news link
    Germany is most at risk, as they have closed about 50% of their nuclear plants recently and know import well over 50% of their energy from Russia
  • Russian Ruble and Interest Rates: news link
    France has relied on nuclear for a long time, with 70% of its electricity produced by its own reactors. France also exports its nuclear technology and reactors. Macron recently announced an expansion of reliance on nuclear a pledge that turn out to be prescient given the energy prices in Europe today.
  • Russian Ruble and Interest Rates: news link
    Most of the talking financial heads on CNN and PBS say it will take weeks to months for the Russian economy to collapse, esp if Europe has to continue buying millions of nat gas and oil
    Having shut down their nuclear plants ( what were they thinking???) they are very dependent on Russia
  • Observations from Schwab
    “Cyberattacks are more likely than a nuclear response by Russia.”
    Gosh. I feel a lot better now!
    Fido sent me something late yesterday re the Ukrainian issue. Being derelict I failed to read it - and now can’t even find it. The brokers and fund houses don’t want a run on the bank. Not that I was so planning.
  • Climate change funds
    @graust
    Thank you for the suggestions. I had forgotten about GAAEX, although I have looked at it in the past.
    Will look at them and report back.
    I think you can break down the ideas into a lot of categories and find ideas and ETFs for most of them. This is not the ideal, as most ETFs are index funds and the solutions are likely to come form ideas little known now
    the things I am looking at are Alternative energy, Industrial electrification, energy storage, nuclear power, Basic materials that are necessary ( ie copper, Lithium, nickel uranium, and industrial processes like carbon capture, Water infrastructure, recycling and process innovation.
    A lot of the ETFs load up on the latter with MSFT, GOOGL, and of course TSLA
  • Climate change funds
    Barron's had a short article on Climate change funds, maybe in honor of the Glasgow conference.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/climate-policies-fund-choices-51636068332?mod=past_editions
    I have been putting small amounts into solar, wind and alternative energy ETFs mostly but a lot of them seem based only on indexes, and I think active management has a far better chance of success.
    The other push for "ESG" funds seems to be too broad to allow a focus only on the transition to a low carbon environment.
    This will concentrate on alternative energy, grid development, energy storage, nuclear power, materials like lithium, uranium, carbon capture, water infrastructure etc, not good governance, inclusiveness, or other desirable social goals that have little to do with low carbon.
    There seem to be only a few actively managed Climate Change Funds available, like GMOs' GCCHX but it has minimums far out of the reach of mere mortals. A number of hedge funds are getting involved, and have lots of information, but again unless you have $1,000,000 or more you are on your own.
    Has anyone done any significant research here?
  • PRWCX Cuts Equity Exposure
    I'm not sure about 1968 - 1981, but between 1973 and 1980, while the stock market roughly doubled utilities, well, roughly doubled.
    Over the indicated periods, $100 grew to:
    Utilities: 1973-1989 $711 (7x), 1981-1990 $352 (3.5x) => 1973-1980 2x
    Stocks: 1973-1989 $613 (6x), 1981-1990 $303 (3x) => 1973-1980 2x
    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-05-20-fi-1567-story.html
    Okay, the calculation isn't perfect. I'm using the time frame from 1973-1989 and factoring out data from 1981-1990, while what should be factored out is 1981-1989.
    (Utilities did a tad better than the S&P500 in 1990, losing only 0.63% to the 500's 3.18% loss.)
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/totalreturns.png
    Despite rising interest rates, despite inflation (which hit the energy sector - the raw material for utilities - harder than the economy as a whole), utilities didn't come off too badly.
    (3 mo T-bill returns jumped from 4.07% in 1972 to 7.03% in 1973, generally remaining above 5% and moving into double digits at the end of the 70s. Inflation first broke 6% in 1973, roughly doubling the 1972 figure, roughly doubling again in 1974 to 11%, generally remaining about 6%, returning to double digits at the end of the 70s.)
    https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html
    A broader point is that aside from an expectation of rising inflation and interest rates, the utilities sector is substantially different from it was in the 70s. Then it was heavily regulated. Because of that regulation, investors expected a nearly guaranteed rate of return and little appreciation. Though because of rapidly rising costs (energy prices), the industry often failed to achieve those "guaranteed" returns in the 70s.
    Still, I'm not expecting another reduction in oil production (with commensurate price hikes) due to an Arab oil embargo after a war with Israel (1973) or due to a revolution in Iran (1979).
    Since deregulation took off in the 80s, since power generation was separated from transmission, it's a completely different business environment. In the 70s, nuclear power was all the rage, and the industry benefited from the government covering plants in case of, um, mishaps.
    Today, nuclear is declining, and other utilities have to bear the cost of their negligence. Such as PG&E:
    In a news conference, Shasta County District Attorney Stephanie Bridgett announced the 31 charges, including 11 felonies, against the company. She said in July that her office had determined that PG&E was “criminally liable” for last year’s Zogg Fire, which burned near Redding.
    ...
    The filing also includes felony arson charges against PG&E for "recklessly igniting" three other fires, all occurring in Shasta County in the last year and a half before and after the Zogg Fire.
    PG&E equipment has been found responsible for some of the most destructive wildfires in California history, including the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County that left more than 80 people dead. More recently, PG&E reported to California utility regulators that its equipment may have been involved in the start of the Dixie Fire burning in Northern California.
    https://www.kcra.com/article/criminal-charges-pgande-zogg-fire/37724695
    Such as the electric utility companies operating in Texas:
    https://abc13.com/texas-griddy-electric-company-lawsuit/10987967/
    Part of the responsibility for the near-collapse of the state’s electrical grid can be traced to the decision in 1999 to embark on the nation’s most extensive experiment in electrical deregulation, handing control of the state’s entire electricity delivery system to a market-based patchwork of private generators, transmission companies and energy retailers.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/us/texas-electricity-ercot-blackouts.html
    The utility industry over the past third of a century or so is simply not the same as the regulated, widows and orphans industry it was prior to the 80s.
  • Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
    Bill Gates and Warren Buffett are building a $1 billion 'next-generation' nuclear reactor in Wyoming...
    The plant, which features a sodium reactor and molten salt energy storage system, would be safer, perform better, and be less expensive than traditional nuclear power, Gates said in a press briefing.
    bill-gates-warren-buffett-nuclear-reactor-wyoming
    and,
    Petrostates See Dire Consequences If World Rejects Oil Too Fast...
    It’s no surprise that top officials from the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters want to see the industry continue for decades to come. Their comments are illustrative of the vast gulf between the world’s current carbon-based energy system and the changes required to prevent damaging climate change.
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-03/petrostates-see-dire-consequences-if-world-rejects-oil-too-fast?srnd=premium
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    @johnN,
    Not sure if the class would agree that these are bond funds per se but as best as I can answer your question, in order of largest holding to less of:
    PMEFX (Penn Mutual AM 1847 Income) - some would argue more of a balanced income fund
    I-Bonds - let's see what inflation rate portion is come May 1st...I'm thinking this could pay out over 2.5%, no state taxes, indexed to inflation, US Govt has printing press and nuclear aresenal and reserve currency so likely amongst safest investment avail.
    FPFIX - FPA Flexible fixed income
    Good Luck to you and all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    Not trying to have innuendo in my writing, sorry. I mean that I don’t think the invention of nuclear weapons was as beneficial for humanity as that of penicillin, yet the free market tends to treat these innovations equally or, worse, favors whichever one is more profitable to sell. The subtext to the notion that more regulation is bad for innovation is that all technological advancement is good and the government should just get out of the way. Also embedded is the idea that unregulated businesses themselves don’t try to stifle innovation when it hurts their bottom lines. We probably would’ve had the electric car fifty years ago were it not for the big auto and fossil fuel companies. Government officials in the U.S. are ostensibly elected by the people who may or may not want more regulation of certain technologies. CEOs are not elected by the people and often do as they please regarding technology so long as it makes them and shareholders money. If that means developing technology that manipulates you into buying certain products, voting for certain candidates and invading your privacy so be it. If it means creating technology that stifles innovation by smaller competitors also so be it.
  • Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
    Aside from the environmental waste disposal problem and labor/community radiation exposure problem, the cost advantages of nuclear don't appear to be there. From the previous link:
    Existing nuclear plants have relatively low operation, maintenance, and fuel costs compared to many fossil fuel plants; however these routine costs still make nuclear power economically uncompetitive in comparison with natural gas, wind, and solar.
    New nuclear plants are another matter altogether; their continuing high construction costs make them uneconomical. Between 2002 and 2008, cost estimates for new nuclear plant construction rose from between $2 billion and $4 billion per unit to $9 billion per unit, according to a 2009 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists. In reality, even those astronomical projections have been surpassed. The two new units at the Vogtle Plant in Georgia, the only new nuclear construction in the United States, are now years behind schedule and projected to cost more than twice their original budget of $14 billion. Similarly, it was estimated that Duke Energy’s proposed Levy County Nuclear Power Plant in Florida would cost $5 billion, but projections ballooned to $22 billion. The project was canceled in 2017, and Duke Energy decided to focus on solar energy expansion instead.
    Reactors also typically require a long period of planning, licensing, and building. The 2019 World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) estimates that since 2009 the average construction time for nuclear reactors worldwide was just under 10 years.
    The WSINR report also estimates that the cost of generating nuclear energy ranges between $112 and $189 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while solar power costs between $36 and $44 and onshore wind power comes in at $29 to $56.
  • Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
    Nuclear plants are prob best resources but don't build one in my backyard (maybe most MFOers may feel same way) but perhaps 1000 miles away