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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • High yield long term CDs
    I saw a 5.8% yield on a 10 year CD through my Fidelity brokerage account.
    The bank can call the rate and I haven’t checked the penalty for early withdrawal but I imagine it would be harsh.
    I assume the chances of the bank keeping the rate at 5.8 are slim to none seeing as how interest rates are bound to dip sooner than later.
    Which begs the question why would anyone invest in a CD under these conditions? And why would a bank even offer such a high rate knowing fully well it will most likely go down in the current state of the economy.
    I want to invest in a 5 or 10 year CD as I am nearing retirement and am in a preservation state of mind. I would take a 5% rate in a heartbeat.
  • Virtus liquidates several funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005020/000093041323002416/c107242_497.htm
    497 1 c107242_497.htm
    Virtus Duff & Phelps International Real Estate Securities Fund (the “Fund”),
    a series of Virtus Opportunities Trust
    Supplement dated November 1, 2023, to the Summary Prospectuses and the Virtus Opportunities Trust Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) pertaining to the Fund,
    each dated January 27, 2023
    Important Notice to Investors
    On November 1, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Opportunities Trust voted to approve a Plan of Liquidation of the Virtus Duff & Phelps International Real Estate Securities Fund, pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about December 13, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective November 17, 2023, the Fund will be closed to new investors and additional investor deposits, except that purchases will continue to be accepted for defined contribution and defined benefit retirement plans, the Fund will continue to accept payroll contributions and other types of purchase transactions from both existing and new participants in such plans, and the Fund will allow reinvestment of distributions from existing shareholders. Investors should note that the Fund’s investments will be sold in anticipation of the Liquidation and may be sold in advance of November 17, 2023.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem or exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any other Virtus Mutual Fund. There will be no fee or sales charges associated with exchange or redemption requests.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will begin engaging in business and activities for the purposes of winding down the Fund’s business affairs and transitioning some or all of the Fund’s portfolio to cash and cash equivalents in preparation for the orderly liquidation and subsequent distribution of its assets on the Liquidation Date. During this transition period, the Fund will no longer pursue its investment objectives or be managed in a manner consistent with its investment strategies, as stated in the Prospectuses. This is likely to impact the Fund’s performance. The impending Liquidation of the Fund may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Fund’s expense ratios. Those shareholders who remain invested in the Fund during part or all of this transition period may bear increased brokerage and other transaction expenses relating to the sale of portfolio investments prior to the Liquidation Date.
    On the Liquidation Date, any outstanding shares of the Fund will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business, except shares held in BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts, which will be exchanged for Class A shares of the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund, and any contingent deferred sales charges will be waived.
    Shareholders with BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts should consult the prospectus for the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund for information about that fund. The proceeds of any redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Fund has paid or provided for all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all Fund shareholders of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Fund must declare and distribute to shareholders any undistributed realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final liquidation distribution. To the extent that the Fund has experienced redemptions prior to the date the Fund distributes any realized capital gains and net investment income, the remaining shareholders at the time of the distribution(s) may bear increased tax liability due to receiving a higher proportion of the distribution(s).
    Although shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of the Liquidation in cash, proceeds distributed to shareholders may be paid in cash, cash equivalents, or portfolio investments equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund (the latter payment method, “in kind”). Shareholders who receive proceeds in kind should expect (i) that the in-kind distribution will be subject to market and other risks, such as liquidity risk, before sale, and (ii) to incur transaction costs, including brokerage costs, when converting the investments to cash.
    Because the exchange or redemption of your shares could be a taxable event, we suggest you consult with your tax advisor prior to the Fund’s liquidation.
    Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    VOT 8020 DPIM Int. RE Liquidation Supplement (11/2023)
    ===================================================================
    Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Allocation Fund,
    Virtus Stone Harbor High Yield Bond Fund
    and Virtus Stone Harbor Strategic Income Fund (the “Funds”)
    each a series of Virtus Opportunities Trust
    Supplement dated November 1, 2023, to the Summary Prospectuses and the Virtus Opportunities Trust Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) pertaining to the Funds named above, each dated September 28, 2023
    Important Notice to Investors
    On November 1, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Opportunities Trust voted to approve a Plan of Liquidation of the Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Allocation Fund, Virtus Stone Harbor High Yield Bond Fund and Virtus Stone Harbor Strategic Income Fund, pursuant to which the Funds will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about December 13, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective November 17, 2023, the Funds will be closed to new investors and additional investor deposits, except that purchases will continue to be accepted for defined contribution and defined benefit retirement plans, the Funds will continue to accept payroll contributions and other types of purchase transactions from both existing and new participants in such plans, and the Funds will allow reinvestment of distributions from existing shareholders. Investors should note that the Funds’ investments will be sold in anticipation of the Liquidation and may be sold in advance of November 17, 2023.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem or exchange their shares of the Funds for shares of the same class of any other Virtus Mutual Fund. There will be no fee or sales charges associated with exchange or redemption requests.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds will begin engaging in business and activities for the purposes of winding down the Funds’ business affairs and transitioning some or all of the Funds’ portfolios to cash and cash equivalents in preparation for the orderly liquidation and subsequent distribution of their assets on the Liquidation Date. During this transition period, the Funds will no longer pursue their investment objectives or be managed in a manner consistent with their investment strategies, as stated in the Prospectuses. This is likely to impact the Funds’ performance. The impending Liquidation of the Funds may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Funds’ expense ratios. Those shareholders who remain invested in the Funds during part or all of this transition period may bear increased brokerage and other transaction expenses relating to the sale of portfolio investments prior to the Liquidation Date.
    On the Liquidation Date, any outstanding shares of the Funds will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business, except shares held in BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts, which will be exchanged for shares of the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund, and any contingent deferred sales charges will be waived.
    Shareholders with BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts should consult the prospectus for the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund for information about that fund. The proceeds of any redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Funds have paid or provided for all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all Fund shareholders of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Funds must declare and distribute to shareholders any undistributed realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final liquidation distribution. To the extent that a Fund has experienced redemptions prior to the date the Fund distributes any realized capital gains and net investment income, the remaining shareholders at the time of the distribution(s) may bear increased tax liability due to receiving a higher proportion of the distribution(s).
    Although shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of the Liquidation in cash, proceeds distributed to shareholders may be paid in cash, cash equivalents, or portfolio investments equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Funds (the latter payment method, “in kind”). Shareholders who receive proceeds in kind should expect (i) that the in-kind distribution will be subject to market and other risks, such as liquidity risk, before sale, and (ii) to incur transaction costs, including brokerage costs, when converting the investments to cash.
    Because the exchange or redemption of your shares could be a taxable event, we suggest you consult with your tax advisor prior to the Funds’ liquidation.
    Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    VOT 8470 SHIP EMDA/HYB/SI Liquidation Supplement (11/2023)
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/23
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/23
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    +25 bps except for Newer IRAs
    Restricted RC 7.00%, RA 6.75%
    Flexible RCP 6.25%, SRA 6.00%, Newer IRAs 5.20%
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 4.75%).
    Edit/Add, 11/1/23. TSP G Fund is at 5% for November.
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #401k #403b #StableValue #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1236/thread
  • HSAs
    Certainly she can ask HR what she can do, recognizing that HR likely had nothing to do with her initial enrollment. I have my doubts about prospects for success, but there's no harm in asking.
    CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) is the Medicare regulatory agency (authority) within HHS much as the IRS is the taxation regulatory agency within the Treasury Dept. And much as the IRS puts out Pubs which can have errors (they are not the regulations themselves), CMS puts out material for public consumption that can have errors. In both instances, errors are not common but they're certainly possible.
    So when CMS says that disenrolling from non-premium Part A Medicare is against the law, it's possible that this agency is misstating its own regs. Not likely, but possible.
    Here's CMS form 1763 for terminating Medicare coverage.
    https://www.cms.gov/medicare/cms-forms/cms-forms/downloads/cms1763.pdf
    It is titled: REQUEST FOR TERMINATION OF PREMIUM PART A, PART B, OR
    PART B IMMUNOSUPPRESSIVE DRUG COVERAGE
    It begins:
    WHO CAN USE THIS FORM?
    People with Medicare premium Part A or B who would like
    to terminate their hospital or medical insurance coverage.
    Is it possible that there's a different form for non-premium Part A beneficiaries to terminate coverage? Sure, but not likely since this form covers all other situations.
    We can go back to the Wellesley College page with info from HSA Resources to observe some oddities.
    First, this is an old page (not disqualifying, but curious). The pdf creation date is  11/22/2016. That's consistent with the fact that HSA Resources was acquired by Select Account in Dec 2016.
    (FWIW, SelectAccount was renamed Further and acquired by HealthEquity in 2021.)
    More important is how it suggests that disenrollment is dated differently depending on whether one is receiving SS checks. If you are receiving checks, it says that you are supposed to pay back any Medicare money spent on claims. Effectively, this is undoing the Medicare enrollment entirely. OTOH, it doesn't say that you have to refund Medicare benefits received if you're not receiving SS checks. It seems you are allowed to keep Medicare benefits received up to the time of disenrollment request.
    What this page is doing is misquoting the rules for undoing registration for Social Security (not Medicare) benefits:
    The request to withdraw a [Social Security retirement] application must be made in writing. Anyone who receives benefits based on the client's application must consent in writing to the withdrawal. Additionally, all benefits previously received must be repaid. This includes:
    • Benefits received by family members;
    • Money withheld for Medicare premiums;
    • Money withheld for voluntary tax withholding; and
    • Money withheld for garnishments.
    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2023/mar/how-to-reverse-course-collecting-social-security.html
    You have to repay the Medicare premiums not the Medicare benefits, from start until termination. That is, you have Medicare throughout, but the premium payments come from you and not your Social Security check if you undo those checks. And it terminates SS benefits, not Medicare enrollment.
    The one item I have found that supports the idea that any Medicare Part A can be voluntarily terminated is in the Medicare statute itself (42 U.S. Code § 1395q(b)(1)):
    An individual’s coverage period shall continue until his enrollment has been terminated—
    (1) by the filing of notice that the individual no longer wishes to participate in the insurance program established by this part,
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395q
    That says only that such a filing will terminate coverage. It doesn't specify the conditions under which such filing is permitted. Such as being charged a Part A premium. Those conditions may be in the regs, which gets us right back to CMS.
  • Fund Stories & More from Barron's, 10/28/23
    COVER STORY “It’s Time to Stop Crying About BONDs and Buy Them Instead”. 2023 may (hopefully) end the worst-ever 3-yr stretch for TREASURIES. Other investment-grade bonds have also suffered. But the RATES are peaking, and focus should be on what comes next (rather than crying over the spilled milk). Hedge-fund manager Bill ACKMAN has covered his Treasury shorts. Yields are much higher now, and much of the bond return is from their starting yields. Bond prices are related to DURATION and longer-term bonds have more kick (up/down). Taxable bonds are oversold and are more attractive than comparable munis. INFLATION-expectations are moderate around +2.5%. Investment-grade bonds may resume their traditional BALLAST role and 60-40 portfolios also look attractive. RISKS include higher persistent inflation, the FED losing control to BOND VIGILANTES, reduced global DEMAND for Treasuries and DOLLAR. The high short-term yields won’t last and it’s time to extend duration/maturity through intermediate-term bonds and/or bond ladders. Mentioned are funds representing a broad spectrum: VMFXX, PFIAX, AGG/BND, OSTIX, BASIX, BINC (new).
    Long-Treasury etf TLT is having a lousy year again (3rd), but investors continue to pour money into it (#3 etf inflows YTD) in the hopes of a turnaround soon (2024?). The better performing HY JNK may do the opposite.
    (At MFO, ETF incorrectly hyperlinks to something. So, using etf to avoid that. @Charles)
    INCOME. Attractive consumer-staples include CLX, HLN, KVUE (JNJ spinoff), LW, PG; etf XLP.
    FUNDS. Ouch! If you own bond index funds, then you are suffering from a 3rd bad year. Indexing is difficult for bonds. Many issues are illiquid and may not trade often. Active bond funds may be desirable in specialized FI areas.
    Core – Indexed AGG, BND
    Core – Active VCORX
    Multisector PONAX (these combine sovereigns, corporates, HYs, EMs)
    HY – Indexed HYG
    HY – Active BHYAX, RSIVX, VWEHX
    Munis – Indexed MUB
    Munis – Active HMOP, MDNLX, VWAHX
    (by @LewisBraham at MFO)
    FUNDS. BERKOWITZ’ LC value FAIRX is doing well YTD due to its 82% of assets in FL real estate developer St Joe/JOE (extreme concentration). Almost 33% of the $340 million AUM fund is held by Berkowitz’s family members and they don’t mind paying 1% ER. The AUM peaked after Berkowitz was named Manager of the Decade by M* in 2010, but there have been persistent outflows since then. Institutional holders may redeem the fund for JOE stock. Investor/personal returns (M* statistic on asset-weighted returns) have been poor. (by @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Byron WIEN passed away at 90 (1933-2023). He was well-known for his annual lists of 10 Surprises, 20 Life Lessons, Summer Lunches in Hamptons, etc. His philosophy on predictions (and he made many) was that they were meant to be thought-provoking contemporaneously and it didn’t matter whether they turned out to be right or wrong (and he didn’t keep score himself, but others did). A world traveler, his mobility recently was limited by a hip injury, and he relied on Zoom. A nerdy Chicago kid, he was lucky to get into Harvard. His long career was at Morgan Stanley/MS (retired in 2001), Pequot, Blackstone/BX (2009- ). He was quoted often in the media and in Barron’s which did a Cover on him in 2016. He noted that sleep is more critical than diet or exercise. A multimillionaire, he lived modestly – he flew commercial; brought leftover restaurant food home; didn’t move from NYC to FL “because” he wasn’t a billionaire to avoid taxes. His philanthropy was for people who needed help and support rather than for arts and museums. He did endow 2 professorships at Harvard and also funded several scholarships there. He was married twice but didn’t have children and had many godchildren.
    RETIREMENT. According to a study by MetLife/MET, 75% of employees could benefit from high-deductible health plans (that is poor naming/framing) and HSAs. But only 45% of employers offer HSAs and only 29% of employees use HSAs. The employee benefits are from lower plan premiums and because the HSA funds can be used tax-free for qualified medical expenses and in retirement (so, it’s like a super-401k/403b). HSAs are also portable. But HSA contribution must stop when Medicare begins; however, the HSA-funds can still be used for medical expenses. (Incorrect MFO hyperlink for HSA)
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/board/12/market-insights
  • DGI sloppy website
    I'm not sure I'd call a related distributor (a la Fidelity, Vanguard, etc.) a third party, as that term often suggests independence. Rather, a distributor is a separate legal entity (whether independent or a subsidiary), perhaps a distinction without a difference.
    The 40 basis points mentioned is more significant, as that's the rack rate that Schwab and Fidelity charge for NTF funds. They charge significantly less to carry TF funds, so the fund might be able to go that route instead. In addition, Fidelity and Schwab carry funds from a few families that decline to pay even this fee (they charge investors a higher TF instead). Realistically though, the brokerages are going to sell funds without charging for shelf space only if the funds are so popular that the brokerages benefit from carrying them anyway.
    It also said that fee sharing arrangements do exist with some 3rd party firms.
    The prospectus says only that these arrangements may exist. Also that shares are available directly or via retirement plans.
    Generally, shares may be purchased, exchanged or redeemed through retirement plans or directly from the Fund. ...
    The Adviser and/or its affiliates may enter into arrangements to make payments for additional activities... These payments are often referred to as revenue sharing payments”
    https://secure.alpsinc.com/MarketingAPI/api/v1/Content/dgifund/the-disciplined-growth-investors-fund-pro-20230831.pdf
    It's boilerplate - disclosing potential conflicts of interest. IOW, legalise. As stated on this page (I assume from the original website) linking to the prospectus: "Some people prefer legalise to English." (Okay, I admit it; I'm one of those people :-))
    https://www.dgifund.com/geeks-lawyers
    The SEC filings for the fund are here:
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=S000033265&action=getcompany&scd=filings
    The fund is a series of the Financial Investors Trust, as are Seafarer Funds (SFGIX, SFVLX) and a variety of other funds. Here's the full prospectus for the trust:
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834423016245/fp0084788-1_485bposixbrl.htm
  • Matt Levine- Money Stuff: Nobody Wants Mutual Funds Now
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-23/nobody-wants-mutual-funds-now
    The page contains five pieces. Though four of them are unrelated to the title of the page. The actual title of the copied piece is: Barbell Strategy
    Omitted in the OP transcription are citations (links) to the text quoted within the piece:
    Silla Brush and Loukia Gyftopoulou report citation (paywalled):
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-10-22/active-vs-passive-investing-money-managers-confront-end-of-bull-market?srnd=premium&sref=1kJVNqnU
    WSJ citation (lnot paywalled): https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/who-you-calling-dumb-money-everyday-investors-do-just-fine-9dd63892?mod=hp_lead_pos8
    That WSJ article addresses @Devo's concern: I think the WSJ article which said retail investors do just fine, and better than professionals, is probably too anecdotal. Nothing about reality and what we hear from individual investors playing zero day options and triple leveraged ETFs ties in with this.
    Vanda calculates the average portfolio by analyzing individual investors’ brokerage-account trading activity in U.S.-listed single stocks. The firm’s analysis excludes purchases of exchange-traded funds and mutual funds, along with transactions made through retirement accounts or investment advisers.
    The WSJ piece has a graphic comparing individual investors' concentration in the biggest name stocks vs. S&P weights that goes beyond the quoted text's mention of Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia. Also overweighted by individual investors are Amazon, AMD, and Netflix. Underweighted are Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta (all underweighted by about half).
    The WSJ has another graphic comparing individual investors and S&P 500 portfolios by sector. Aside from overweighting technology (as mentioned in the quoted text), consumer discretionary is heavily overweighted, constituting about a quarter of investors' portfolios. Also of note is the substantial underweighting of healthcare (less than 40% of the S&P 500 weight); see MFO thread on healthcare.
    Also omitted is footnote 1 (at the end of the 3rd paragraph):
    One important element here is that mutual funds were once a way to diversify your stock portfolio in a world where the normal way to buy individual stocks was in round lots of 100 shares. If you had $10,000 to invest, that might get you 100 shares of one or two stocks, whereas a mutual fund could buy dozens of stocks for you and give you fractional ownership of each of them. But now you can trade individual stocks for free and buy fractional shares directly from your broker, so that benefit of mutual funds is much less important.
    With 40% of portfolios invested (on average) in three stocks, that's not using cheap trades to diversify. That's doing what small investors have always done - buy a handful of stocks they recognize.
    Again from the WSJ piece:
    Robinhood users tend to “invest in what they know and use,” according to Stephanie Guild, head of investment strategy at Robinhood and a JPMorgan Chase veteran of about two decades. “That’s really no different than generations before...”
  • Brown Advisory Equity Income Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418923007651/baf-497e.htm
    ________________________________________
    BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
    Brown Advisory Equity Income Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Shares (BAFDX)
    Investor Shares (BIADX)
    Advisor Shares (BADAX)
    Supplement dated October 19, 2023
    to the Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information
    dated October 31, 2022
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Brown Advisory Funds (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Brown Advisory LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on or about January 15, 2024. Accordingly, the Board approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination (the “Plan”) that sets forth the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated.
    The Board has determined to waive any applicable redemption fees and exchange fees for shares redeemed on or after October 20, 2023.
    Effective October 20, 2023, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund is no longer accepting purchases into the Fund, except for the reinvestment of dividends and distributions, if any. In addition, the Adviser will begin an orderly transition of the portfolio to cash and cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to January 15, 2024, your shares will be redeemed on January 15, 2024, and you will receive your proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account, and the proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed.
    If you hold your shares in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “rollover” your proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. If your IRA account is held directly with the Fund, you must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064 prior to January 15, 2024, of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds. If the Fund does not receive a response prior to January 15, 2024, your investment in the Fund will be liquidated as an age-based distribution with 10% federal withholding on January 15, 2024. Please also note that state withholding may also apply. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the redemption proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064.
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
  • Serious question about bond funds
    I’m not trying to convince anyone to buy CDs and Treasuries, just trying to wrap my head around investing in them. For most of my investing history, cash investments have yielded next to nothing. Treasuries and short term bonds fared little better.
    Many financial planners and experts say you can safely withdraw about 4% a year from a portfolio in retirement. I am unlikely to live 20 or more years, based on my family history, although my wife could. So, if I can buy a 20-year Treasury yielding 5.15%, that will pay more than my income needs for longer than my expected life span, what’s not to like? I have no intention in putting all of my portfolio in Treasuries, just a portion that would make up the long portion of a ladder.
    I’m trying to decide whether to convert more of my bond funds into Treasuries. My bond funds are currently yielding close to 6% but continue to lose value. I know that at some point they will start increasing in value again, and selling now will lock in my losses, so I don’t plan to totally abandon them. But I no longer view them as low-risk investments to anchor my portfolio. I also plan to continue holding 40-60% of my portfolio in stock funds.
    So, if I buy a 20-year Treasury that pays dividends semiannually, is that income compounded, or simply paid out in cash every 6 months? So far, the Treasuries I’ve bought are all zero-coupons that you buy at a discount and mature at full cash value. I haven’t bought any 5-year or longer Treasuries, so I don’t understand if the interest is compounded or simply paid out at regular intervals.
  • Serious question about bond funds
    2021-23 will go down the history as the WORST period for bonds. Investors and organizations (M*, etc) that have gone exclusively with bond FUNDs only for all times have done poorly. But those who have also used other fixed-income tools have done better - individual Treasuries, CDs, ladders, stable-value (in retirement plans); m-mkt funds too since mid-2022.
    The media is NOW saying that these are the best times to get into bonds. But many investors don't trust that.
    Here is a chart showing Treasuries, core, core-plus and multisector bond funds (beneficiaries of HY); default is 1-yr, but can change timeframes to 2, 3 or other years.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=IEF&compare=BND,FBND,PIMIX&id=p36003419830
  • Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks
    I dont remember when PRWCX closed but I could start a new position in ITCSX in an old VOYA retirement account I kept open in 10/2019, so ITCSX was open then.
    I opened a small position in my IRA on June 16 of 2014, shortly after the coming closure was announced.
  • Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks
    I dont remember when PRWCX closed but I could start a new position in ITCSX in an old VOYA retirement account I kept open in 10/2019, so ITCSX was open then.
  • Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks
    VY means that it's offered through a Voya retirement plan. It would open and close in rhythm with the main share class of the fund. Price would not offer access to Voya investors that it denied its own.
  • Vanguard Admiral Minimums
    I wrote to Vanguard for temporary waiver for Admiral min of $50K. I cited bad 3-yr stretch for hybrids & that new money cannot be added to IRAs in retirement (only earnings from work can be contributed).
    Vanguard's reply, after several days, was that it is looking into the matter.
    If Vanguard's final response is negative, I will just SELL those Admiral hybrids (under $50K) ahead of Investor-conversion deadline and replace them with appropriate combo of TCAF + USFR. In the bigger scheme of things, the ER change doesn't matter. But Vanguard needs to have some pushbacks. After Vanguard forced conversion to brokerage, I am not limited to Vanguard funds.
  • WSJ: Millennials doing surprising well in retirement savings
    The Wall Street Journal (10/03/2023) reports:
    While the generation born in the 1980s and 1990s has lagged behind prior generations when it comes to homeownership and earnings, new data suggests they are saving more for retirement. By the time older millennials now earning a median salary reach retirement, Vanguard estimates, they will be able to replace almost 60% of their preretirement income with Social Security and savings from sources including their 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts.
    Gen Xers and the youngest baby boomers with median earnings are, by contrast, likely to replace about half of their paychecks in retirement. ("Millennials on Better Track for Retirement Than Boomers and Gen X")
    The reason they give is at employers now automatically enroll new employees in a 401(k) with a default target-date fund. The plans are often crappy and overpriced, but a mile better than the previous plan: let them figure it out on their own.
    Three quick notes:
    1. "better" is still not "good" - the same Vanguard study estimates at the median income should target replacing 83% of their pre-retirement income with investments + Social Security.
    2. relatively few can anticipate the life path that we or our parents had: home ownership is out of reach in and around the megacities, though remarkably affordable in likely "climate havens" in the Upper Midwest, around the Great Lakes ex-Chicago, and parts of New England, and half of young folks in their 20s are living at home with their parents.
    I grew up in a multi-generational home - nine of us, representing three generations, shared the same 900 square foot, 1890s brick house for a long time - so "living with family" isn't something I see as automatically negative.
    3. if anyone cared to notice, this might go down in Augustana history as "Snowball's good deed." Ten or 15 years ago I was called upon to help rebuild the college's retirement plan, which had a generous employer contribution (10% of base salary) but almost no employee contributions. We also had over 1200 fund and annuity options. Depending on the department (faculty, facilities, admin, food services ...), participation was in the low teens as a percentage of eligible folks contributing and the average contribution was around 3% a year.
    I helped engineer four moves: a far smaller array of fund choices, automatic enrollment in the plan, automatic escalation of the employee's contribution from 6% (year one) to 10% (year five and beyond, unless the opted out) and a shift in the college's contribution from a straight percentage to a 5% guaranteed contribution plus up to 6% more in a matching contribution.
    When I last checked, we had something like 94% participation and an average contribution around 9%.
    Which no one but you knows.
    Cheers!
  • Make Me Smart: Crypto goes to court
    Yet, it isn't just COIN, HOOD, etc, but companies such as BLK, Fidelity, BEN, etc are betting on the launch of physical/spot-crypto ETFs OR are offering them to their retail and retirement customers.
    Several countries have introduced CBDCs. The Fed is still evaluating digital-dollar.
    So, there is something there that may not be obvious to all.
  • MFO's October issue is live and lively!
    Devesh and I, separately, chose to think through the implications of "higher for longer" as a Fed mantra.
    Lynn began poking at the new TRP Capital Appreciation ETF and wrote a really nice reflection on Retirement: Year One.
    I made some portfolio shifts, which is rare for me. I cut Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX) after a long time. I booked a substantial gain, but mostly in the early years of the holding. What ultimately got me to act was reading the fund's own webpage (their pretty straightforward in reporting performance) and the apparent turmoil / turnover at Matthews. It strikes me as hard to do your job when other people are losing theirs. I added Leuthold Core (LCORX), because I don't have the energy just now to worry about how to reallocate assets when the picture (goodbye, Speaker McCarthy) changes daily. And I had already added RiverPark Strategic Income, which I'd written about this summer in tandem with Osterweis Strategic Income. OSTIX is leading in absolute returns but has more short-term volatility, and I'm just not into that. It's up 5.9% YTD / 5.8% APR over three years.
    All of which moves me back closer to my "neutral" position of 50/50 stocks/bonds-cash-alts.
  • Vanguard Admiral Minimums
    Accounts at financial institutions are considered to be inactive if there has been no activity (aside from automatic divs/interest/CD renewals) for some period of time, often 12 months.
    The institution continues to hold your assets, though it may "close" the account, or it may prohibit all transactions (including cashing checks), or it may simply start charging inactivity fees. (Vanguard does not charge inactivity fees.)
    There is some confusion about the term "dormancy". Some institutions say that an inactive account is "dormant". That is how Vanguard is using the term according to your post. Others wait until the next phase (below) before calling the account dormant.
    A financial institution is required to turn over ("escheat") account assets to your state after some longer period of time. Depending on the state, this is three years or longer. Some institutions say that this is when an account becomes "dormant". Vanguard uses "dormancy" this way in its prospectuses, e.g. for VMFXX:
    Dormant Accounts
    If your account has no activity in it for a period of time, Vanguard may be
    required to transfer [escheat] it to a state under the state’s abandoned property law,
    subject to potential federal or state withholding taxes.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p030.pdf?2210171184
    Until the assets escheat, you can recover inactive account assets by notifying the institution (Vanguard) that you are still alive, still interested in the assets, and go about reactivating the account (or possibly opening a new account).
    Note that the rules are more forgiving for retirement accounts. It's a mess that I'm not going to sift through now.
    https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/faqs-on-unclaimed-property-aspects-of-retirement-assets
    Once burned, twice shy. Wells Fargo did this to me several years ago. Ever since then I've kept a log of the last time I contacted the institution (and what constitutes "contact") or conducted a transaction. When it gets close to a year (even if the institution says it doesn't care about inactivity, just escheatment), I will contact the institution. Or make a $5 deposit, or something.