@larryB - I get it. I used to ignore active funds; then funds with er’s over .5%. Now in retirement I find I want an active fund manager(s) to conservatively manage a part of my investment. FPACX’s data is compelling:
- ~60% in equity (Domestic & International) even though our portfolio only holds 35% in equity
- all 3 managers eating their cooking to the tune of $1m+
- 5-yr upside/downside capture ratio 116/81 (pretty good blood pressure)
- top ranked returns 3 of last 4 years.
- and cash right now paying over 4%, I like that they’re looking to invest in their best ideas.
So for now, I’m looking to continue investing here.

IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
I don't believe in charts, so take my comments accordingly.

Great point. The 82 bull also came after the going nowhere years of 66-82. Back then it seemed all of a sudden the baby boomers then in their early thirties woke up one day and began thinking about their retirement and so began the rush into equities. The 80s were the best of times - music, movies, TV series, etc. I don’t believe in charts either. Never met a rich chartist.

@PressmUp. Not me. I am perhaps half way through retirement and the regime might last longer than me. A big enough crash might be enticing but it would be for sport. It’s an age thing.

I disagree. Everything has a shelf life.
First, of course, they won't have the opportunity to "vote for him again no matter what" as president unless well, unless the unthinkable.
Next, regardless if NO MATTER WHAT is in CAPS or not...His base is clearly stoopid, but if any/all of you lose your job, your home, your retirement savings, the country went belly up and we're on the brink of nuclear war, a worthy % of the cultists will fold.
There are already, albeit weak, signs that some of the cardboard cut out Red Party legislators are starting to buckle. The 2-week recess couldn't come at a better time. Those a-holes are going to be getting earfuls in their districts.
And I'll conclude my participation on this by saying I'm sure few thought McCarthyism would die either.

So now Donnie is insulting people who are worried about their retirement accounts...
“The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done DECADES AGO. “Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!”
A far cry from FDR's reassuring fireside chats, eh?

But then people will shift their attention back to the destruction of the entire government instead of their retirement accounts. Can't afford to stop the destruction of the world economy until said destruction of the US government is complete. Distractions are gooood.

Treasury Secretary Bessent is full of insights.
"During an interview with NBC News’ 'Meet the Press,' Bessent called it a 'false narrative' that Americans
who are close to retiring may be reticent to do so after their retirement savings may have dropped this week
due to the stock market downturn."
“'I think that’s a false narrative,' he told moderator Kristen Welker.
'Americans who want to retire right now, the Americans who put away for years in their savings accounts,
I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations.'”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-markets-tariffs-recession.html

@Sven. Since 28 March 2025, I'm liking TBills, CDs, IG Bonds. I do think that since inflation will not be demand driven, Fed may step in down the road. That said, IG Bonds have not been the place to be for years. Hopes of lower rates have just not materialized.
IG Corporate Bonds now paying 5-6% over10-20 years, callable though.
Fun fact. In May 2007, height of market back then, I bought my retirement home putting 20% down and took a 30-year fixed mortgage paying 6.5%! So, I think years of ZIRP since have probably distorted my perspective on rates.

Everyone’s financial situation is different. We are near retirement and thus we stay conservative in our allocation. 65-70% are in bonds and cash while the remaining 30-35% in stocks. Don’t think this drawdown has playout completely and there are more downside in coming months. We will stay patient and collect generous dividends from bonds and cash. Will buy more T bills this weekend as others mature next week.

Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2025/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/25)
(No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
(Congratulations to @LewisBraham who seems to be in charge of all features now)
Pg 18: A list of defensive, chaos-resistant funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
“Cash”: Money-market and ultra-short-term bond funds
Bonds: BND,CBLDX, FFIAX, FPFIX
Large-Cap-Value: ACMVX, GQHPX, SCHD, TWEIX
International/Global: CIVVX, LVHI, SGENX
Gold-Bullion: GLDM
Alts: BAMBX, PCBAX, QDSNX, QLENX
Pg 20: In 2025/Q1, gold, bonds and foreign stocks were winners. Large-cap-growth and cryptos were losers. SP500 peaked on 2/19/25. There were strong inflows into the money-market, ultra-short-term and intermediate-term bond funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
More on Funds & Retirement
Popular dividend-blend etf SCHD has increased its energy exposure to 21% after the recent reconstitution; the next sectors are consumers 19%, healthcare 15%. Alternative ETFs include VIG, VYM, DGRO.
INTERVIEW/Q&A – FUNDS. Sean SUN, Thornburg etf TXUG. The international growth fund has been hurt by its Chinese exposure, but those stocks are now rebounding. He looks for quality and durable growth at reasonable prices (GARP). The Fund includes emerging growth, mature growth and industry leaders. He doesn’t worry about risks to Taiwanese chip industry from China-Taiwan frictions. There are also carveouts for chips in the new US tariffs (25% for S Korea). The obesity drug sector will continue to have strong growth.
RETIREMENT.
GOLD is hot (relatively), but retirees shouldn’t chase it. Gold has had several short-term rallies, but it doesn’t have a good long-term record. For small positions, use gold-bullion IAU, GLDM, SGOL, GLD. In taxable accounts, higher collectibles capital gain rate of 28% applies. Goldminers are catching up in 2025 – GDX, GDXJ. Ignore the ads for Gold IRAs.
Stick to your portfolio allocations and don’t do anything rash during the market turmoil. Keep the money you may need in 1-2 years in “cash” (money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds, T-Bills, high-yield savings accounts, short-term CDs).
Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
https://i.ibb.co/4D8Q7Dm/Barrons-Cash-Track-040525.png
Q1 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)

Q1 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)

LINK

I never used momentum indexes; I only used typical funds but looked at the best risk/reward ones and kept changing according to uptrends, and several parameters.
How to do that? It's the $64K. I developed my system for years, just as I developed my timing one for retirement. None is mechanical. See (link).
I have posted for over 15 years on several boards, and I can say that there are maybe 5-7 people who do it well. The rest don't believe it, don't want to put in the effort, or don't care.

Roger all that.
From March 1, 2025:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/doge-actions-may-cause-social-security-benefit-interruption-ex-agency-head.html
Excerpt (BOLD added):
...
“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”
...
For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, Hornick said.
IF they are affected, pretty sure There Will Be Blood.
Tick. Tick. Tick.
EDIT: An apparent afternoon (IMO) dead cat bounce, if it holds, will play nicely into the plans of anyone who is today running from this scary looking freight train.

I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
It's just not polite to talk about it.

And that’s the purpose of

Mutual Fund Observer? To debate the great financial issues of the world? Go at it then.

We can't discuss the impact of "great financial issues" on our investments? Why do people buy and sell what they buy and sell? I don't know. Can't talk about it.
I think I've seen one post here defending tariffs. If they're a good idea, then maybe they would have a beneficial effect on our retirement plans. Or maybe someone would have an idea of how to invest to take advantage of threatened tariffs.
But no. The people that object to the discussion, such as yourself, suggest they shouldn't be talked about at all in the context of investing. It's only politics. And nihilism is in bloom this spring. Let's talk about the price of scotch instead.

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Rates down by -25 bps; early release
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
TSP G Fund 4.250% pending (previous 4.250%).
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1926/thread

A Wealth of Common Sense detailed some interesting charts....https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/03/the-stock-market-is-always-changing/
Per Goldman Sachs, ownership of US equities:
38% Households
18% Foreign investors
11% Active mutual fund
6% passive mutual fund
9% ETFs
10% Pension/govt retirement
4% Business holdings
2% Hedge Funds

And Denmark is champion of the past 20 year returns (market return by country), followed by the USA...

Hi Rick,
IMO, people's assessment of cause and effect are backwards in this case.
Trump agenda (succeed or fail) points to a weaker dollar. I expect USD to be lower three years from now. For a society addicted to catchy phrases (so they do not have to process), "strong dollar" has become a slogan leaders pitch and people eat up but really what the administration would shoot for is a stable dollar and not a strong dollar.
***********
As to realignment, we have elections every two years. You will need a few successive elections to go in a specific policy direction for a re(or mis)alignment to take hold. Somethings that have been evolving for the last 8-10 years are somewhat irreversible. But then there are other things that are ideas and have not yet taken root in the society. Whether these ideas take root or not depends on who is providing leadership and not just leaders.
If there is a Democratic party equivalent of Project 2025, please share the link. I want to read.
As you know, if the general public knows about something happening for the last 8-10 years means the DC apparatus (does not matter the party affiliation) has been at it for much longer. As an example, I helped my ex-employer in 2018 to exit China by divesting their Chinese business to a global Chinese company.
We have 800 military bases (of all sizes and kinds) in 80 different countries. Has there been a significant reduction of those (not counting Afghanistan) in the last 8-10 years or is there a firm expectation of significant reduction in them? Watch this metric. Closing USAID is not it. Reciprocal Tariffs is not it. We have to separate / distinguish evolutionary from revolutionary changes.
I am just concerned that we in this forum consume way too much of what the media and whoever (e.g., Think Tanks) wants us to consume. (I am aware that this forum, more than any other investing forum I had ever visited, has a large group that does not rely on stock investments to meet their retirement (sustenance or charitable) goals and they can afford pursuits other than investing.)
Good weekend.

Turns out my wife got a raise for delaying benefits (past full retirement?), and then for payroll deductions for 2024. I'm having to guess because the letter isn't entirely clear.
As granddad used to say: "Don't marry for money, but don't let it stand in your way." :)

yep, sentiment indicator is the marginal discretionary, not the auto-indexer flow.
however, relative to auto flows, it would be very interesting to suss out retirement plans trading out of their u.s. indexes.

These broad generalizations are, imo, pointless. What kind of stocks are these retailers buying? MAG-7 momentum stocks? What sector? Or are they just plowing $$$ into index funds, which by their very nature, are market-cappy/momentum-based? They make it sound like individual investors should just go to cash and sit the market out right now....

+1
What I’d like to know is how much of this buying is passive flow into 401-Ks or other retirement accounts? Is there any data on the percentage of so called “retail investors” still working vs the percent who are retired? A guess would be that a much higher percentage are working and dollar averaging in. However, in terms of actual wealth controlled, retirees may well have the upper hand.
Although I earlier posted the article, it does sound like 90% hype and 10% substance. Shamefully short on details.
From JD_co - ”Thus far, Tech has pulled back after a tremendous run-up.”
Yes. We can thank TSLA for a good part of the market damage. It has lost 50% of its value since mid December.

Thanks Yogi. Interesting. What I can’t tell from the numbers is how far out the time horizon is in these surveys - assuming there is one?
Conceivably, one might be bullish near term (1-3 months out), but bearish longer term (3, 5, 10 years or more). Or conversely, bearish near term and bullish longer term. Let us hope 25 year olds aren’t selling their long term retirement holdings (or ceasing to invest) based on which way the wind is blowing at any given moment.