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"His original paper was based on just two asset classes, intermediate-term Treasury bonds and large-cap stocks. He has since concluded that by adding a third asset class, small-cap stocks, investors could safely withdraw as much as 4.5% annually."
(Jan of last year.)
from
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-originator-of-the-4-retirement-rule-thinks-its-off-the-mark-he-says-it-now-could-be-up-to-4-5-51611410402
retirement-insights/retirement-portfolio-allocationHow do people manage their income and spending in retirement? How do they adjust their asset allocation as they transition into retirement? Certainly, there is survey data on the subject and much informed speculation. Yet the full picture—based on empirical evidence that shows how people actually behave—has remained elusive.
JPMorgan Chase data for around 62 million households, we studied 31,000 people as they approached and entered retirement between 2013 and 2018.
This data offers the very first holistic financial view of households in transition. From it, we created a rich mosaic showing retirees’ income, spending and wealth. Real data about real behaviors, we believe, can deliver the most useful insights.
The research reaffirmed some of our assumptions and in other ways proved surprising.
how-real-people-manage-their-money-in-retirement/The study was a rare look into how 31,000 people manage their money in retirement. Not surprisingly, a lot of people seem to be making some mistakes (no Roth conversions come to mind). It’s understandable, given the complexity of the topic and the reality that learning to manage your money in the “decumulation phase” is an entirely different skill set than those used in the “accumulation phase.”
All of that depends on whether we are at an inflection point or not. This is why I think it is a serious mistake to compare the social sciences like economics and its uglier cousin finance with the hard sciences like physics. Tomorrow I can be almost certain that the law of gravity will apply if, say, Vladimir Putin stepped out of a window. I can by no means be certain that the belief that "in the long run U.S. stocks will go up" will remain true.you guys are correct, but it seems to me that you're simply beating up on a simple maxim: given our system, and given a young-enough starting point, investors will do well, over long periods of time. Don't the "sadistics" bear this out?
DESCRIPTION OF THE TRUST
Vanguard Chester Funds (the "Trust") currently offers the following funds and share
classes (identified by ticker symbol):
Share Classes
Fund Investor Admiral Institutional
Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund VPMCX VPMAX
Vanguard Target Retirement 2015 Fund VTXVX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 Fund VTWNX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 Fund VTTVX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund VTHRX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2035 Fund VTTHX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund VFORX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund VTIVX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2050 Fund VFIFX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 Fund VFFVX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 Fund VTTSX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement 2065 Fund VLXVX — —
Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund VTINX — —
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2015 Fund — — VITVX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2020 Fund — — VITWX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2025 Fund — — VRIVX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2030 Fund — — VTTWX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2035 Fund — — VITFX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2040 Fund — — VIRSX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2045 Fund — — VITLX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2050 Fund — — VTRLX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2055 Fund — — VIVLX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2060 Fund — — VILVX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2065 Fund — — VSXFX
Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement Income Fund — — VITRX
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